Finspiration Australia.

22/2/23.  Finspiration Wednesday Evening Report. 

Again today, like yesterday, we saw the XJO open well down at the opening, but intra-day buying took off most of that selling after the Wages Report came out at 11.30 a.m.  While employment remains strong, wages growth remains muted.  The market took that to mean that pressure has eased on the RBA to raise rates.  So, the market rose at 11.30 a.m., not enough to erase all losses, but the long lower tail on today's candle shows how strong was the intra-day buying.

XJO was down -0.3%.  The bulls are still alive and kicking - but not overcoming the resilience of the bears just yet.

Utilities (XUJ) was the  best performing sector as a result of further news about the take-over of Origin Energy.  XUJ up today +4.8%.

Consumer Staples was the next best performer as a result of Woolies rising +2% after reporting this morning.  Unlike Coles the previous day, there was no backsliding during the day on the WOW price.

Santos also reported and finished u +3.1% and that helped the Energy Sector to finish up +0.9%.

Despite heroics by bulls in the past two days, the trend in the ASX remains to the downside.

A positive divergence on Stochastic suggests we could see some upside.  We need to see a strong bullish candle for that to happen.

In overseas markets, Europe has opened to the downside, but Dow Futures are currently flat.  Anything can happen between now and close of trading in NY.

Finspiration Australia.

 22/2/23.  Finspiration Wednesday Morning Report.

Overnight:  U.S. stocks down heavily.

Dow Jones -2.06%.  SP500 -2%.  Nasdaq -2.5%.  Small Caps -2.98%.  Banks -2.67%.

SP500.

SP500 is now down to a major support level.  After such a big down day, we may see a bounce here.  A lot of resistance lies over-head, so any rally is likely to be sold into.

New York Highs-Lows Cumulative remains bullish - above the 10-Day MA.  That's unlike the OZ NH-NL Cum which is now well below the 10-Day MA.  

Commodities.

Commodities Index +0.13%.  Energy -0.12%.  Base Metals +1.75%.  Agriculture +0.98%.  Gold -0.37%.

After 45 minutes of trading this morning, XJO is down -0.8%.  

WOW reported this morning and is up +1.01%,

Bitcoin.

Bitcoin was down -2.21% overnight but stabilised this morning.  It is consolidating at the top of its range.

Stay with the trend.

Finspiration Australia.

 21/2/23.  Finspiration Tuesday Evening Report.

It was BHP Day today on the ASX.  It reported before the market opened and fell once trading began, to be down around -2%.  But later in the day, buying came into the stock and that led BHP and the ASX to finish with small losses for the day.

First:  XJO.

The XJO was down -0.21% today.  The long lower wick on today's candle shows the extend of the intra-day buying.  

The past todays show doji candle-sticks - indecision.  Coming at the low end of a down trend that could be signalling the end of the trend.  We need to see a bullish candle and a break above the 8-DEMA.  That's the down-sloping grey line which has provided resistance since 9/2/23.

BHP:

BHP finished down -0.33% but finished up well above its opening price.  It has nudged back into "No Man's Land" and marginally above the 8-Day EMA.  That is looking positive.

Coles also reported before the market opened.  It did the opposite of BHP.  Up at the opening and then sold off.

COL remains in the top half of the Bollinger Bands (bullish zone) but today's wide ranging bearish candle looks ominous.  I'm expecting more downside for COL.

The U.S. reopens tonight after Washington's Birthday Holiday.  

Finspiration Australia.

 21/2/23.  Finspiration 11.30 a.m. update.

RBA held no nasties for the market.  After the minutes were released, the market barely moved.  At 10.45 a.m., XJO is down -0.5%.

BHP has remained around the -2% down.  Currently at -1.9%.

The big mover this morning has been Coles.  Shortly after opening this morning, Coles was up about +0.8%.  The market has re-assessed its report and Coles is now down -1.8%.  That's a big intra-day fall.

Inspiration Australia.

21/2/23.  Inspiration Tuesday Morning Report.

U.S. Markets closed overnight.  Europe markets little changed.

The big changes for Australia this morning were reports from BHP and Coles.

At 10.10 a.m., BHP was down about -2% but jerking around trying to find a base price..  Coles up, about +0.7%.

XJO is down -0.6%.

Gold flat overnight, -0.09%.  Bitcoin up about +0.4%.

RBA minutes due at 11.30 a.m. Summer time.  I'll give an update on the market soon after that time to see if any reaction occurs.

Here's a summary from Reuters of the BHP report:

Global miner BHP Group (BHP.AX) was positive about demand outlook through to fiscal 2024 as top metals consumer China reopens and shifts policy towards its debt-laden property sector, the company said on Tuesday after its 2023 first-half profit missed estimates.

However, its interim dividend of 90 cents per share, while lower than last year's $1.50 per share, beat Vuma Financial's estimate of 88 cents.

Finspiration Australia.

 20/2/23.  Finspiration Monday Evening Report.

A "nothing" day today on the ASX.  XJO up +0.06%.  It was a narrow range day with a doji candlestick.

XJO remains short-term bearish.  Today's action is marked by that tiny little cross at the end of the down-trend.

Tomorrow, the NY Stock Exchange is closed for Washington's Birthday.  That probably explains the lack of interest in our market today.

Let's see what tomorrow brings.  Among other things, BHP reports tomorrow - that could be market changing.

Finspiration Australia

    19/2/23.  Weekend Report - The Week That Was.  Week Ended 17/2/23.

XJO Monthly Chart.

After almost three weeks, XJO down so far -1.74% stalling at the top of the strong January candle.  XJO has also reached a zone where it has failed in the past.

So far, the Index is above the 8-MEMA, Hull MA13, 50-MMA, 200MMA, Supertrend (7/1.5).  Not much damage done yet.

  

Monthly RSI is at 55.26.  50 represents the dividing line between bullish and bearish.

XJO Weekly Chart.

                                            

XJO remains in an up-trend, with higher highs and higher lows.  In the past five days, XJO fallen -1.17%.

XJO began to fall two weeks ago at a major resistance level.  

8-Week EMA has turned down, which is bearish. Hull MA13 and Supertrend remain in bullish configurations, so not a lot of damage done yet.

Weekly RSI is at 56.87 - bullish but falling.  

Stochastic was showing a negative divergence and has now turned down below its signal line.  That could mean more downside.

XJO Daily Chart.

XJO was in a strong up-trend in January.  It is currently in a short-term down-trend.

Daily RSI has fallen below its mid-line of 50.  That's bearish

The indicator overlays on the chart (8-DEMA, Hull MA and Supertrend) are all negative.  The chart remains, however, above the longer term MAs:  50 and 200.  This may be a pull-back within the longer up-trend.

Monthly, Weekly and Daily RSIs. - Sectors + XJO + Gold + Composite Bonds.

This week's chart:

Only four sectors are above 50 on the One-Week RSIs.  

Bullish sectors with RSIs arranged in ascending order are:  XDJ, XIJ, XSJ.  That's the same as the previous week

Sectors in negative mode (Daily RSI below Weekly RSI, Weekly RSI below Monthly RSI) XXJ, XMJ, XEJ, XUJ.  That's eight out of eleven sectors.

Sectors in pull-back mode are:  XHJ, XPJ, XNJ, Gold (an industry group within XMJ) is alsoin pull-back mode. 

NewHighs-NewLows Cumulative.

This is a long-term lagging indicator, but a good guide for long-term investors.

NH-NL Cum is represented by the blue line.  It is now marginally below the 10-DAY MA but remains well above the 21 and 34 Day Moving Averages.  That's a warning signal - it might be time to take defensive action for long-term investors.

I've developed another long-term metric "StrongStocks-WeakStocks" which is similar to NH-NL but gives signals a little earlier than NH-NL  SS-WS is up for the 14th week in a row and has moved well above its 5-Week MA.   This week there were only 22 Strong Stocks compared to 6 the previous week.  Weak stocks rose to six.   

While this remains above its 5-Week MA, long-term investors might ignore the NH-NL chart.

% of Stocks above key moving averages.

1.  % of stocks above 10-Day Moving Average: Last Week 26%, This Week 42%.  

2.  % of stocks above 50-Day Moving Average, Last Week 61%, This Week 61%.  

3.  % of stocks above 200-Day Moving Average, Last Week 71%, This Week 70%.  

Stocks above 200-Day MA have fallen from 71% to 70% but remains at the 5-Week MA.

The short-term metric has risen strongly this week, so breadth is not as poor as the XJO might suggest.

 

Conclusion.

 

Daily chart of XJO was in a strong uptrend.  That has now now reversed into pull-back mode.

The long-term trend, however, is still bullish with higher highs and higher lows.

I've remarked on my daily reports that a "hidden divergence" is in play on the XJO.  That's a continuation signal.  We need to see a strong bullish candle on the daily chart to confirm a change from downside back to upside.

I'm still sanguine about the prospects of our market.  I think this is the pull-back we had to have (apologies to Keating) after a strong January.  A lot of stocks are getting back to levels where an upside move can be expected.  Short term breadth has improved. But, until proven otherwise, the short-term trend is down.