Finspiration Australia

16/2/23.  Finspiration Thursday Evening Report. 

XJO +0.79% up strongly today after yesterday's big down day.

Despite the strong performance today, the action counts as an "inside day" - not enough to call it a bullish event.

The chart remains below the 8-Day EMA.  We need to see a break, at least, above that short-term marker to feel comfortable that the down-trend is over.

Patience is a virtue, saith the Bard.

Finspiration Australia

  16/2/23.  Inspiration Thursday Morning Report.

Overnight:  US stocks opened lower but rose overnight after intra-day buying.  Commodities weak.

Dow Jones +0.11%.  SP500 +0.29%.  Nasdaq +0.92%.  Small Caps +0.98%.  Banks -0.02%.

SP500.

SP500 shows a hidden divergence (higher low on the Index, lower low on Stochastic).  That's a continuation pattern

The trend remains up - as the Trading Gods say:  "stay with the trend".

Commodities.

Commodities Index -1.07%.  Energy -0.96%.  Base Metals -1.95%.  Agriculture  -0.83%.  Gold -1%.

After nearly an hour so trading this morning, XJO is down about -0.6%.

Stocks featuring in Reporting Season Lottery  today:  CBA down -3.35%, Wesfarmers +2.69%, Cochlear +6.61%.

Iron Ore flat +0.1%.

ASX Futures up +0.5% - that should ensure a good start to morning trading.

Bitcoin.

Last night, BTC up nicely +8.6%.  Back now to resistance.  Expect some consolidation here before the next move to the upside.

Finspiration Australia.

15/2/23.  Finspiration Wednesday Evening Report.

XJO down today -1.06%.  The index is now into its eighth day since the closing high on  on 3 February.  Today's action was the biggest down day since the pull-back began.  That often results in a bounce on the next day.

The hidden divergence (higher low for the Index, lower low on Stochastic) is still in play.  I'd go long on the first big bullish candle.  We haven't seen one yet.

The index is now down to a level were a reversal looks possible.  The chart above shows an important horizontal support level, plus the index is down to support of the Kijun Sen (base line of the Ichimoku System).  Support from the 50-Day MA lies a little below the Kijun Sen.

Let's see what the overnight markets bring to the table.

Finspiration Australia.

 15/2/23.  Inspiration Tuesday Morning Report.

Overnight:  US stocks mixed after CPI report.

Dow Jones -0.46%.  SP500 -0.03%.  Nasdaq +0.57%.  Small Caps -0.35%.  Banks -0.2%.

SP500.

Last night's doji candle-stick represents indecision.  The closing price remains above the 8-Day EMA so the trend remains up.

The path of least resistance is to the upside, so SP500 will most likely move higher until major resistance is found.

Commodities.

Commodities Index +0.33%.  Energy +0.69%.  Base Metals +0.69%.  Agriculture continues to fly higher, +0.79%.  Gold +0.08%.

After nearly an hour so trading this morning, XJO is down about -0.6%.

Stocks featuring in Reporting Season Lottery  today:  CBA down -3.35%, Wesfarmers +2.69%, Cochlear +6.61%.

Bitcoin.

Last night, BTC up nicely +2.88%.  It has paused at the 8-Day EMA - it needs to cross above that to prove its short-term bullish credentials.

Finspiration Australia.

 14/2/23.  Finspiration Tuesday Evening Report.

XJO was up just +0.18% today after being up much earlier in the day as intra-day selling knocked the top of early gains.

As a result, XJO shows a tomb-stone candle - that's an indecisive candle - and certainly not a bullish candle.

The chart is show a "hidden divergence".  This occurs when the Index makes a higher low but Stochastic makes a lower low.  This is a bullish continuation signal, but we need to see a bullish candle and a break above that knot of indicators on the chart:  8-Day EMA, Supertrend and Hull Moving Average.  They are causing some short-term resistance.  That could turn into a downside rout - we will have to wait and see.

No doubt, today's indecision was a result of the market waiting to see economic data coming out of the U.S. tonight: Consumer Price Index (CPI) retail sales, industrial production and housing.  That might provide further evidence of the effects of Federal Reserve interest rate rises.

Australia is currently into reporting season.  Tomorrow is a biggie, with Cochlear, Comm Bank and Wesfarmers reporting.

Finspiration Australia.

 14/2/23.  Inspiration Tuesday Morning Report.

Yesterday in Australia.

Yesterday, XJO down -0.21%.

Chart is showing a "hidden divergence".  Higher low on the XJO chart, lower low on the Stochastic.  That's a bullish continuation pattern.  I'd buy the next big up candle.

Overnight in the U.S.

Dow Jones +1.11%.  SP500 +1.14%.  Nasdaq +1.48%.  Small Caps +1.25%.  Banks +1.08%.

SP500.

Strong three day reversal pattern on the SP500.  Chart has bounced nicely off the Supertrend and finished above both the 8-DEMA and Conversion line.  That suggests the pull-back is over.

Commodities.

Commodities Index -0.21%.  Energy -0.46%.  Base Metals +0.74%.  Agriculture +0.59%.  Gold -0.51%.

With U.S. stocks rebounding, and strong Base Metals, our market should be well up today.

Bitcoin.

Bitcoin down a little last night, -0.4%.  The "gravestone" doji for last night's candle could signal an end to this pull-back.  I'd be long again if we see a big up day candle next.

Finspiration Australia.

13/2/23.  Finspiration Monday Evening Report. 

XJO was down a little today, -0.21%.  After an initial early fall this morning, the index lapsed into a choppy sideways trend.

Below is the one-day chart for today:

Tough work for the day traders today if they were trying to make money on those tight little swings.

Seven sectors out of eleven were negative today.  The best performer was XEJ (Energy) up +1.6%.  The worst was XDJ (Discretionary) down -1.4%.  XDJ was recently an out-performer, but is now reverting to the mean.

Tonight in the U.S. an update on inflation expectations will be provided.  That could be market moving, one way or the other.