Finspiration Australia. Chart Analysis for Australian and International Stock Markets. + Bitcoin

  25/1/2023.  Finspiration Wednesday Morning Report.

Major U.S. indices finish flat after falling in early trade.

Dow Jones +0.03%.  SP500 -0.02%.  Nasdaq -0.18%.  Small Caps +0.28%.  Banks +1.59%.

SP500.

SP500 continues to respect the down sloping trend line where it has failed before.  Crucial time.

Commodities.

Commodities Index -0.28%.  Energy -1.05%.  Base Metals +0.32%.  Agriculture +0.26%.  Gold +0.46%.

In New York, BHP +1.43%, Rio +1.13%.

Bitcoin.

Bitcoin was up +3.01% last night.

Bitcoin continues to hover around the 200-Day MA.  It remains above the 8-Day EMA and the Supertrend.  While it stays above those, holders can breath easily.

Negative divergences on indicators are starting to play out.  Plenty of support exists nearby.    A modest pull-back could provide a chance for bitcoin punters to get set for another surge to the upside.

 24/1/23.  Finspiration Tuesday Evening Report.

XJO finished up +0.4% today - and that's the first time in six months that it has been up five days in a row. That's coming at the top of a long up-trend.  Are we seeing a little "irrational exuberance" creep into the Ozzie market.

 XJO remains in overbought territory (RSI >70) for the third day in a row.  RSI now at 72.32.

It remains overbought with an RSI >70.  CCI is showing a negative divergence which suggests we will see a pull-back in the near future.

Four best performing sectors today were:  Property +1.8%, Materials +1.3%, Info Tech +1.3% and Consumer Discretionary +0.9%.  Other sectors were little changed.

NH-NL Cumulative continued to move higher creating a buffer if the market does pull-back in the near future.

Tomorrow, Australia will see CPI figures for the December quarter.  That has the potential for a market moving event.

Stay Safe.

Finspiration Australia. Chart Analysis for Australian and International Stock Markets + Bitcoi

   24/1/2023.  Finspiration Tuesday Morning Report.

U.S. sees follow through buying after Friday's good result.

Dow Jones +0.76%.  SP500 +1.19%.  Nasdaq +2.01%.  Small Caps +1.1%.  Banks +2.1%.

SP500.

SP500 is now back to the down sloping trend line where it has failed before.  Crucial time.

Commodities.

Commodities showed modest strength last night.

Commodities Index +0.24%.  Energy +1.01%.  Base Metals +0.27%.  Agriculture +0.15%.  Gold +0.19%.

Gold is consolidating at its highs, so there is a good chance of further upside.

Bitcoin.

Bitcoin was up +3% last night.   It finished above the 200-Day MA.  That's a big plus.

Negative divergences are starting to show up on indicators so a consolidation or pull-back might be on the cards.  A modest pull-back could provide a chance for bitcoin punters to get set for another surge to the upside.

Finspiration Australia. Chart Analysis for Australian and International Stoc Markets.

23/1/23.  Finspiration Monday Evening Report.

XJO up just +0.07% today.

 The market was indecisive today recording a narrow range doji candlestick.

It remains overbought with an RSI >70.  CCI is showing a negative divergence which suggests we will see a pull-bcumack in the near future.

Information Tech +1.3% and Energy +0.9% were the best performing sectors.  Other sectors were in a narrow range exhibiting "noise".

NH-NL Cumulative continued to move higher creating a buffer if the market does pull-back in the near future.

Finspiration Australia. Chart Analysis for Australian and International Stock Markets.

22/1/23.  Weekend Report - The Week That Was.  Week Ended 20/1/23.

Stock Market Adage:  "As goes January, so goes the year."  Described first by Yale Hirsch in 1972, since 1950 it has an 85.7% accuracy. 

 Chart Analysis on this Blog is purely descriptive.  It is written for informational and educational purposes and should not be taken as financial advice.  Do your own research or seek advice from a Registered Financial Advisor.

This week saw further upside in the broad market.

XJO Monthly Chart.

The first three weeks of the new month of January, 2023 have been good for the XJO, up + 5.88%.   The Index is above the 8-MEMA, Hull MA13, 50-MMA, 200MMA, SUpertrend (7/15).  Supertrend was the last domino to fall.  If it remains bullish into the end of January (and I see no reason why it shouldn't), we can say we have a new bull market on our hands.

Monthly RSI is at 56.98

XJO Weekly Chart.

                                            

In the past five days, XJO risen +1.69%.  XJO Weekly is in an uptrend - higher highs and higher lows.

8-Week EMA, Hull MA13 and Supertrend are all heading to the upside.

Weekly RSI is at 63.69.  That's above the Monthly RSI of 56.98, which indicates a bullish XJO.

XJO Daily Chart.

XJO has been in a strong up-trend since early January.  Daily RSI is now at 72.09 - that's overbought.  The last time XJO had an overbought reading was back in early December, 2022, which precipitated a fall back to the 200-Day MA.  Watch the market here for a pull-back.  I'd expect support at the 50-Day MA, which be about a 50% retracement of the recent rise.

Monthly, Weekly and Daily RSIs. - Sectors + XJO + Gold + Composite Bonds

The above column chart shows the Monthly, Weekly and Daily RSIs for each sector.  This provides information momentum.

Bullish Momentum:  slope upwards from left to right.

Bearish Momentum:  slope downwards from left to right.

Sectors to watch.  

• A.  First two columns slop upwards, third column is below second column.  May be in a pull-back in a bullish trend.
• B.  Second Column is below first column, but third column is above second column.  May be in a counter-trend rally

This week we have nine sectors with bullish readings:  XXJ, XMJ, XDJ,  XIJ, XTJ, XHJ, XPJ, XSJ, XNJ. As well, the following show bullish readings:  XGD, XJO, IAF

Bearish readings:  XEJ, XHJ. XSJ is bearish in the medium to long-term but showing a short-term bounce.

XUJ is bearish, and XEJ is in a counter-trend, upside rally.

XMJ and XJO are short-term overbought with RSI >70.  Expect consolidation or a pull-back in the coming week.

NewHighs-NewLows Cumulative.

This is a long-term lagging indicator.

NH-NL Cum is represented by the blue line.  It is now above the 10/21/34 Day Moving Averages.  The 10-DMA is above the 21-DMA.  This is a very bullish configuration.  While the NH-NL CUM remains above the 10-Day MA, long-term investors can fell comfortable about their investments.

I've developed another long-term metric "StrongStocks-WeakStocks" which is similar to NH-NL but gives signals a little earlier than NH-NL  SS-WS is up for the 10th week in a row and has moved well above its 5-Week MA.   This week there were 38 Strong Stocks and 1 Weak Stock.   That's the best result since I began keeping records two years ago and beats the record set the previous week.  This chart remains bullish.

% of Stocks above key moving averages.

1.  % of stocks above 10-Day Moving Average: Last Week 78%, This Week 66%.  

2.  % of stocks above 50-Day Moving Average, Last Week 70%, This Week 77%.  

3.  % of stocks above 200-Day Moving Average, Last Week 52%, This Week 64%.  

All three indicators are now bullish.  The short term indicator (stocks above 10DMA) has fallen back from the previous week's reading.  That's interesting as the XJO is giving off an overbought reading, so internal strength is weakening.  That usually happens before a pull-back.  

Conclusion.

 

January has started well for the XJO and most Sectors are now giving bullish momentum readings..

XJO is now overbought with an overbought RSI >70.  XMJ is also >70 for the second week in a row.

Internal strength has weakened a little which usually happens before a pull-back.  I won't be surprised to see a pull-back start in the coming week.  

I said that in the previous week's report on the basis of the overbought reading for XMJ.  XMJ retained that reading this week, which only makes the idea of a pull-back more pronounced.

The long-term out-look for our market (based on the January effect and NH-NL Cum) remains good.

Stay Safe. 

Finspiration Australia. Chart Analysis for Australian and International Stock Markets + Bitcoin

  21/1/2023.  Finspiration Thursday Morning Report.

U.S. stock rebound.

Dow Jones +1%.  SP500 +1.89%.  Nasdaq +2.66%.  Small Caps +1.55%.  Banks +3.12%.

SP500.

The chart shows a classic three-day candle-stick reversal pattern:  big down day, narrow range doji candle stick, big up day.  That has to be taken in context.  SP500 remains below the 200-Day MA which has been a stumbling block for the SP500 for many months.  I'd like to see a clear break above the 200-Day MA before feeling sure about its bullish credentials - but the current reversal pattern looks promising.

Commodities.

Commodities continue to show strength.

Commodities Index +0.6%.  Energy +1.15%.  Base Metals +0.19%.  Agriculture +0.26%.  Gold -0.33%.

Bitcoin.

Bitcoin was up +6.6% last night.  For the week, it is up +12.7%

Bitcoin broke convincingly above its recent consolidation and horizontal resistance.  That looks like a bullish move.  Next hurdle:  200 DMA.

Monthly, Weekly, Daily RSI's:  M - 45.96,  W - 55.02, D - 82.55.

These figures show that Bitcoin is in a strong upside trend (Daily RSI much higher than Weekly RSI).

Until Monthly RSI is above 50, I'll presume this is a counter-trend rally in a bear market.  I'm not saying it can't turn bullish (MRSI>50), but until that happens I'll reserve judgement.

Finspiration Australia. Chart Analysis of Australian and International Stock Markets. + Bitcoin

  20/1/2023.  Finspiration Thursday Morning Report.

U.S. Dow Jones down for third day

Dow Jones -0.76%.  SP500 -0.76%.  Nasdaq -0.96%.  Small Caps -0.86%.  Banks -0.75%.

SP500.

The SP500 has failed again at the 200-Day MA.  Until it gets over that resistance level, I'd be looking for the short-side to dominate.

Commodities.

Commodities were mainly higher.

Commodities Index +1.01%.  Energy +1.8%.  Base Metals -0.6%.  Agriculture -0.66%.  Gold +1.59%.

After an 90 mins of trading, XJO started on the low side, but is now up  +0.2%.  That usually suggests more upside.

Bitcoin.

Bitcoin was up +0.76% last night.

Above is a Heiken-Ashi chart which tends to lag a bit - but good at filtering out noise. 

Bitcoin is consolidating at its highs.  I'd wait until I see which way this breaks.