Finspiration Australia. Chart Analysis for Australian and International Stock Markets.

22/1/23.  Weekend Report - The Week That Was.  Week Ended 20/1/23.

Stock Market Adage:  "As goes January, so goes the year."  Described first by Yale Hirsch in 1972, since 1950 it has an 85.7% accuracy. 

 Chart Analysis on this Blog is purely descriptive.  It is written for informational and educational purposes and should not be taken as financial advice.  Do your own research or seek advice from a Registered Financial Advisor.

This week saw further upside in the broad market.

XJO Monthly Chart.

The first three weeks of the new month of January, 2023 have been good for the XJO, up + 5.88%.   The Index is above the 8-MEMA, Hull MA13, 50-MMA, 200MMA, SUpertrend (7/15).  Supertrend was the last domino to fall.  If it remains bullish into the end of January (and I see no reason why it shouldn't), we can say we have a new bull market on our hands.

Monthly RSI is at 56.98

XJO Weekly Chart.

                                            

In the past five days, XJO risen +1.69%.  XJO Weekly is in an uptrend - higher highs and higher lows.

8-Week EMA, Hull MA13 and Supertrend are all heading to the upside.

Weekly RSI is at 63.69.  That's above the Monthly RSI of 56.98, which indicates a bullish XJO.

XJO Daily Chart.

XJO has been in a strong up-trend since early January.  Daily RSI is now at 72.09 - that's overbought.  The last time XJO had an overbought reading was back in early December, 2022, which precipitated a fall back to the 200-Day MA.  Watch the market here for a pull-back.  I'd expect support at the 50-Day MA, which be about a 50% retracement of the recent rise.

Monthly, Weekly and Daily RSIs. - Sectors + XJO + Gold + Composite Bonds

The above column chart shows the Monthly, Weekly and Daily RSIs for each sector.  This provides information momentum.

Bullish Momentum:  slope upwards from left to right.

Bearish Momentum:  slope downwards from left to right.

Sectors to watch.  

• A.  First two columns slop upwards, third column is below second column.  May be in a pull-back in a bullish trend.
• B.  Second Column is below first column, but third column is above second column.  May be in a counter-trend rally

This week we have nine sectors with bullish readings:  XXJ, XMJ, XDJ,  XIJ, XTJ, XHJ, XPJ, XSJ, XNJ. As well, the following show bullish readings:  XGD, XJO, IAF

Bearish readings:  XEJ, XHJ. XSJ is bearish in the medium to long-term but showing a short-term bounce.

XUJ is bearish, and XEJ is in a counter-trend, upside rally.

XMJ and XJO are short-term overbought with RSI >70.  Expect consolidation or a pull-back in the coming week.

NewHighs-NewLows Cumulative.

This is a long-term lagging indicator.

NH-NL Cum is represented by the blue line.  It is now above the 10/21/34 Day Moving Averages.  The 10-DMA is above the 21-DMA.  This is a very bullish configuration.  While the NH-NL CUM remains above the 10-Day MA, long-term investors can fell comfortable about their investments.

I've developed another long-term metric "StrongStocks-WeakStocks" which is similar to NH-NL but gives signals a little earlier than NH-NL  SS-WS is up for the 10th week in a row and has moved well above its 5-Week MA.   This week there were 38 Strong Stocks and 1 Weak Stock.   That's the best result since I began keeping records two years ago and beats the record set the previous week.  This chart remains bullish.

% of Stocks above key moving averages.

1.  % of stocks above 10-Day Moving Average: Last Week 78%, This Week 66%.  

2.  % of stocks above 50-Day Moving Average, Last Week 70%, This Week 77%.  

3.  % of stocks above 200-Day Moving Average, Last Week 52%, This Week 64%.  

All three indicators are now bullish.  The short term indicator (stocks above 10DMA) has fallen back from the previous week's reading.  That's interesting as the XJO is giving off an overbought reading, so internal strength is weakening.  That usually happens before a pull-back.  

Conclusion.

 

January has started well for the XJO and most Sectors are now giving bullish momentum readings..

XJO is now overbought with an overbought RSI >70.  XMJ is also >70 for the second week in a row.

Internal strength has weakened a little which usually happens before a pull-back.  I won't be surprised to see a pull-back start in the coming week.  

I said that in the previous week's report on the basis of the overbought reading for XMJ.  XMJ retained that reading this week, which only makes the idea of a pull-back more pronounced.

The long-term out-look for our market (based on the January effect and NH-NL Cum) remains good.

Stay Safe. 

Finspiration Australia. Chart Analysis for Australian and International Stock Markets + Bitcoin

  21/1/2023.  Finspiration Thursday Morning Report.

U.S. stock rebound.

Dow Jones +1%.  SP500 +1.89%.  Nasdaq +2.66%.  Small Caps +1.55%.  Banks +3.12%.

SP500.

The chart shows a classic three-day candle-stick reversal pattern:  big down day, narrow range doji candle stick, big up day.  That has to be taken in context.  SP500 remains below the 200-Day MA which has been a stumbling block for the SP500 for many months.  I'd like to see a clear break above the 200-Day MA before feeling sure about its bullish credentials - but the current reversal pattern looks promising.

Commodities.

Commodities continue to show strength.

Commodities Index +0.6%.  Energy +1.15%.  Base Metals +0.19%.  Agriculture +0.26%.  Gold -0.33%.

Bitcoin.

Bitcoin was up +6.6% last night.  For the week, it is up +12.7%

Bitcoin broke convincingly above its recent consolidation and horizontal resistance.  That looks like a bullish move.  Next hurdle:  200 DMA.

Monthly, Weekly, Daily RSI's:  M - 45.96,  W - 55.02, D - 82.55.

These figures show that Bitcoin is in a strong upside trend (Daily RSI much higher than Weekly RSI).

Until Monthly RSI is above 50, I'll presume this is a counter-trend rally in a bear market.  I'm not saying it can't turn bullish (MRSI>50), but until that happens I'll reserve judgement.

Finspiration Australia. Chart Analysis of Australian and International Stock Markets. + Bitcoin

  20/1/2023.  Finspiration Thursday Morning Report.

U.S. Dow Jones down for third day

Dow Jones -0.76%.  SP500 -0.76%.  Nasdaq -0.96%.  Small Caps -0.86%.  Banks -0.75%.

SP500.

The SP500 has failed again at the 200-Day MA.  Until it gets over that resistance level, I'd be looking for the short-side to dominate.

Commodities.

Commodities were mainly higher.

Commodities Index +1.01%.  Energy +1.8%.  Base Metals -0.6%.  Agriculture -0.66%.  Gold +1.59%.

After an 90 mins of trading, XJO started on the low side, but is now up  +0.2%.  That usually suggests more upside.

Bitcoin.

Bitcoin was up +0.76% last night.

Above is a Heiken-Ashi chart which tends to lag a bit - but good at filtering out noise. 

Bitcoin is consolidating at its highs.  I'd wait until I see which way this breaks.

Finspiration Australia. Chart Analysis for Australian and International Stock Markets.

 19/1/2023.    Finspiration Thursday Evening Report.

XJO enjoys another strong day, up +0.6%.

XJO is close to being overbought with an RSI at 69.42.  CCI is showing a negative divergence, so a pull-back may not be far away.

Seven sectors were up today with one flat (XDJ).  Best performer was XMJ (Materials) +1%.  XMJ was helped by a good production report from BHP, up +1.2%, but that was eclipsed by Rio, up 3.3%.  Next best was XHJ (Health) up +0.9%.  Again we have this unusual blend of Offensive and Defensive sectors at the top of the ladder.

Europe in early trade is down solidly.  German DAX down -0.77%, French CAC -0.7%.  UK FTSE -0.59%.

U.S. Futures are also down.  Dow Jones futures -0.38%.  It seems that America is going to continue down after Wednesday night's big fall.

Stay Safe.

Finspiration Australia. Chart Analysis for Australian and International Markets + Bitcoin

 19/1/2023.  Finspiration Thursday Morning Report.

U.S. stocks down after opening on the high side.

Dow Jones -1.81%.  SP500 -1.56%.  Nasdaq +1.24%.  Small Caps -1.57%.  Banks -2.56%.

SP500.

Last night was an emphatic rejection of the recent highs.

The index may find support now at the Base Line of the Ichimoku System and the lows that formed in early December.

Commodities.

Commodities were mainly lower.

Commodities Index -1.08%.  Energy -1.73%.  Base Metals +0.51%.  Agriculture -0.66%.  Gold -0.29%.

Although Base Metals finished on the plus side, the big black candle indicates strong intra-day selling.

After an hour of trading, XJO is flat, down just 3 points.

Bitcoin.

Bitcoin followed U.S. stocks lower.

Bitcoin was down -2.5% overnight.  There may be a bit more downside before finding support.  Wait.

Finspiration Australia. Chart Analysis for Australian and International Stock Markets

18/1/2023.  Finspiration Wednesday Evening Report.

XJO had another narrow range day which finished flat, XJO +0.1%.

Two doji, narrow range candlesticks coming at the top of a trend usually means that the index is topping out.

This chart looks promising for the long term investor.  The NH-NL Cumulative is now above the 10-Day MA and the 21-Day MA.  The 10-Day MA is close to a bullish cross-over above the 21-Day MA.

This is a long-term indicator and should not be confused with short-term indicators that can jump around quite a bit.  While the NH-NL Cum stays above the 10-Day MA, long-term investors can feel comfortable about their investments.

Six sectors were up today and five down.  Best performer was XIJ (Info.Tech.) +1.7%.  Next best was XHJ (Health) +0.9%.  That's an odd mix of Offensive and Defensive Sectors.  

Tomorrow, BHP is scheduled to provide a production report.  That could be market moving.

In overseas trading tonight, European indices are mainly flat - much like Australia today.

Stay Safe.

Inspiration Australia. Chart Analysis for Australian and International Stock Markets + Bitcoin

 18/1/23.  Finspiration Wednesday Morning Report.

Mixed results in the U.S. overnight.

Dow Jones down -1.14%.  SP500 -0.2%.  Nasdaq +0.14%.  Small Caps -0.35%.  Banks -0.24%.

Goldman Sachs a component in the Dow Jones fell heavily having an adverse effect on the DJ.

SP500.

SP500 appears to be stalling, once again, at the 200-Day MA.  A pull-back here would not surprise.  Watch.

Commodities.

Commodities Index -0.69%.  Energy +0.98%.  Base Metals +0.45%.  Agriculture +0.36%.  Gold -0.65%.

The extraordinary run-up in Base Metals continues.  A pull-back is imminent.

After an hour of trading this morning, the XJO is up marginally, +0.1%.

Bitcoin.

Bitcoin is stalling at horizontal resistance.  I'll wait to see which way this moves out of this small consolidation area.