Finspiration Australia. Chart Analysis for Australian and International Stock Markets

18/1/2023.  Finspiration Wednesday Evening Report.

XJO had another narrow range day which finished flat, XJO +0.1%.

Two doji, narrow range candlesticks coming at the top of a trend usually means that the index is topping out.

This chart looks promising for the long term investor.  The NH-NL Cumulative is now above the 10-Day MA and the 21-Day MA.  The 10-Day MA is close to a bullish cross-over above the 21-Day MA.

This is a long-term indicator and should not be confused with short-term indicators that can jump around quite a bit.  While the NH-NL Cum stays above the 10-Day MA, long-term investors can feel comfortable about their investments.

Six sectors were up today and five down.  Best performer was XIJ (Info.Tech.) +1.7%.  Next best was XHJ (Health) +0.9%.  That's an odd mix of Offensive and Defensive Sectors.  

Tomorrow, BHP is scheduled to provide a production report.  That could be market moving.

In overseas trading tonight, European indices are mainly flat - much like Australia today.

Stay Safe.

Inspiration Australia. Chart Analysis for Australian and International Stock Markets + Bitcoin

 18/1/23.  Finspiration Wednesday Morning Report.

Mixed results in the U.S. overnight.

Dow Jones down -1.14%.  SP500 -0.2%.  Nasdaq +0.14%.  Small Caps -0.35%.  Banks -0.24%.

Goldman Sachs a component in the Dow Jones fell heavily having an adverse effect on the DJ.

SP500.

SP500 appears to be stalling, once again, at the 200-Day MA.  A pull-back here would not surprise.  Watch.

Commodities.

Commodities Index -0.69%.  Energy +0.98%.  Base Metals +0.45%.  Agriculture +0.36%.  Gold -0.65%.

The extraordinary run-up in Base Metals continues.  A pull-back is imminent.

After an hour of trading this morning, the XJO is up marginally, +0.1%.

Bitcoin.

Bitcoin is stalling at horizontal resistance.  I'll wait to see which way this moves out of this small consolidation area.

Finspiration Australia. Chart Analysis for Australian and International Stock Markets.

 17/1/23.  Tuesday Evening Finspiration Report.

XJO finished flat today, down just -0.03%.  

Four sectors up today and three flat.   But the nature of the ups and downs was important.  Best three sectors today were defensives:  Staples +1.8% and Health 1% and Property +1.1%.  Materials, however, down heavily -1.1% and Info.Tech. down  -0.8%.  There was a definite feeling of "risk off" in the market.

Tonight in America, earnings season continues.  Results can often jerk the markets around.

Stay Safe.

Finspiration Australia. Chart Analysis for Australian and International Stock Markets + Bitcoin.

 17/1/23.  Finspiration Tuesday Morning Report.

Overnight, U.S. closed for MLK Holiday.  Europe up modestly.

UK FTSE up +0.2%.  German DAX +0.31%.  French CAC +0.28%.

After an hour of trading today, XJO is down in line with European results -0.2%.  Sector results so far are, however, mixed.  Materials down -1.4%.  Defensives are doing best with Health up +1.4%.

Bitcoin.

Bitcoin was up +6.6% overnight and is now at horizontal resistance of the early Nov. 22 high.  If BTC can overcome that hurdle it is then looking at the 200-Day MA.

The Weekly Chart is showing a triple Supertrend "buy" signal.  That's the first one since Aug, 2021.

That signal resulted in a massive rise from about 30,000 to about 69,000.  As usual, past experience is no guarantee of future rises.  But it does look promising.

Finspiration Australia. Chart Analysis for Australian and International Stock Markets.

 16/1/23.  Monday Evening Finspiration Report.

XJO up another +0.82% today.  Up eight out of the past nine days.  That's starting to stretch the friendship.

RSI is still not overbought but getting close to the 70 level.  Today it was at 67.04.

All eleven sectors were up today.  XUJ (Utilities) was the weakest +0.1%.  XMJ (Materials) +0.2%.  BHP and RIO were both flat today.  Both might be about to have a rest or pull-back after very good upside runs.    BHP +0.1%, Rio -0.1%.  FMG was down heavily -2.06%,  All of those big miners were affected by fall in the Iron Ore price -2%.  Rio Tinto releases December quarter production figures tomorrow.  That could have an effect on the price of the big miners.

Tonight, the U.S. is closed for MLK Holiday.  Usually, if Australia is up before an American holiday, ASX is flat the next day or weaker.  Rarely is it up strongly.

In early trade in Europe, stocks are just slightly positive.  Euro STOXX600 +0.9%.  In London, BHP is down -0.9% and Rio is down -1.2%.

Stay Safe.

Finspiration Australia. Chart Analysis for Australian and International Stock Markets.

    15/1/23.  Weekend Report - The Week That Was.  Week Ended 13/1/23.

 Chart Analysis on this Blog is purely descriptive.  It is written for informational and educational purposes and should not be taken as financial advice.  Do your own research or seek advice from a Registered Financial Advisor.

This week was a bonanza for the Dart Throwers.  No matter where the dart fell on the list of ASX 200 stocks - you probably picked a winner.

XJO Monthly Chart.

The first two weeks of the new month of January, 2023 have been good for the XJO, up + 4.11.   The Index is above the 8-MEMA, Hull MA13, 50-MMA, 200MMA.  The only resistances are the Supertrend (7/1.5) and horizontal resistance.  

Monthly RSI is at 55.55

It's still early in the month so no decisions should be made on the basis of this chart.

XJO Weekly Chart.

                                            

In the past five days, XJO risen +3.07%.  The bullish candle from the first week of January has seen follow through buying in the second week.

The Index bounced off both the 50-Week MA and the Supertrend (7/1.5).  It also finished well above the 8-Week EMA.  Hull MA13 is flat.  A move higher would give a medium term buy signal.

Weekly RSI is at 60.42.  That's above the Monthly RSI of 55.55, which suggests a bullish XJO.

XJO Daily Chart.

XJO has been up for seven of the past eight days.  This has been a short-covering rally precipitated by the big bullish candle on 4 January, which completely reversed the big bearish candle on 3 January.  That trapped a lot of short traders now scrambling to get out of trouble.

Daily RSI is at 64.02.  Daily RSI is above the Weekly RSI (60.42) which is above the Monthly RSI (55.55).  That's a bullish configuration.

XJO is now at horizontal resistance after a strong run-up, which suggests we might see a rest or a pull-back here.

Monthly, Weekly and Daily RSIs. - Sectors + XJO + Gold + Composite Bonds

The above column chart shows the Monthly, Weekly and Daily RSIs for each sector.  This can provide information about bullish sectors and sectors to watch (might turn bullish).  This can be used as an initial filter before making stock selections.

Bullish Sectors:  slope upwards from left to right.

Bearish Sectors:  slope downwards from left to right.

Sectors to Watch.  First two columns slop upwards, third column is below second column.

Last Week, only one sector was bullish - XMJ (Materials).  Gold Miners Industry Group (part of XMJ) was also bullish.

This week we have a slew of bullish readings:  XXJ, XMJ, XDJ,  XIJ, XTJ, XPJ, XNJ, XGD, XJO, IAF

Bearish readings:  XEJ, XHJ. XSJ is bearish in the medium to long-term but showing a short-term bounce.

I have no sectors on a bullish "watch list".

XMJ is short-term overbought with an RSI >70.  Expect consolidation or a pull-back in the coming week.

NewHighs-NewLows Cumulative.

This is a long-term lagging indicator.

This is the first time since early 2022 that NH-NL Cum has risen above the 20-Day MA (blue dotted line).  That's a bullish event.  While the NH-NL Cum stays above the 10-Day MA long term investors can feel more comfortable with their investments.

I've developed another long-term metric "StrongStocks-WeakStocks" which is similar to NH-NL but gives signals a little earlier than NH-NL  SS-WS is up for the ninth week in a row and has moved well above its 5-Week MA.   This week there were 33 Strong Stocks and 2 Weak Stocks.   That's the best result since I began keeping records two years ago.

The SS-SW line has once again kicked up from the 5-Week MA.  This remains bullish.

% of Stocks above key moving averages.

1.  % of stocks above 10-Day Moving Average: Last Week 46%, This Week 78%.  

2.  % of stocks above 50-Day Moving Average, Last Week 46%, This Week 70%.  

3.  % of stocks above 200-Day Moving Average, Last Week 41%, This Week 52%.  

All three indicators are now bullish.  The short term indicator (stocks above 10DMA) is now pushing up near to an overbought reading of 80%.  Any more improvement could see a pull-back.

Conclusion.

 

January has started well for the XJO and many Sectors are now giving bullish readings.

The move up in the second week of January has been very strong - perhaps a little too strong.  Any more upside improvement is likely to be followed by a downside movement.  At this stage, it seems that any dip will be bought.

XMJ has been the strongest sector with a short-term RSI >70.  With such strength, I'd expect a pull-back in XMJ in the coming week.  That could flow over into the broad market.

Stay Safe. 

Finspiration Australia. Chart Analysis for Australian and International Stock Markets + Bitcoin

 14/1/2023.  Finspiration Saturday Report.

Everything is up.  (Not quite - but you get the idea.)

Yesterday in Australia.

XJO up +0.66%.  Nine out of eleven sectors were up.  XUJ (Utilities) was flat, and XSJ (Staples) down -0.5%,  both are defensives.  Best performers were XEJ (Energy) +1.5%, Discretionary +1.4%, XXJ (Financials) and Telecommunications both up +1.1%.

XJO is now coming up to a major resistance area, the November high.  A break above that would be bullish.

Overnight in the U.S.

Dow Jones +0.33%.  SP500 +0.4%.  Nasdaq +0.71%.  Small Caps +0.56%.  Banks +0.7%.

An interesting night in the U.S.  The indices dropped at the opening after some of the big banks reported disappointing earnings.  But then the banks flew higher.  You can see what a broad range it was by looking at the last candle on the BKX chart.  Wells Fargo, for instance, opened lower but finished up +3%.  So much for disappointing earnings!  Countering those rises in the banks were falls in autos, Ford -5% and General Motors -4%.

SP500.

SP500 is up five of the past six days, and the only down day was only down marginally.

The chart is bullish.  The trend is up.  I like to stay with the trend until it has obviously finished.

It was a good effort by the American market coming at the end of the week and facing a three day break - those conditions often see profit taking.

Commodities.

Commodities Index +0.98%.  Energy +1.27%.  Base Metals +1.46%.  Agriculture +0.15%.  Gold +1.2%.

Base Metals and Gold are both in exponential rises.  Both are overbought.  RSI on DBB is now at 73.1.  RSI on Gold is now at 74.15.  Exponential rises can go on for longer than we can think - but usually revert to the down-side just as quickly.  Careful.

Bitcoin.

Bitcoin continues its great upside run.  It is now coming up to its early November high.  With an RSI at 84, it might rest here, but any dip will probably be a buying opportunity.