Finspiration Australia. Chart Analysis for Australian and International Stock Markets.

    15/1/23.  Weekend Report - The Week That Was.  Week Ended 13/1/23.

 Chart Analysis on this Blog is purely descriptive.  It is written for informational and educational purposes and should not be taken as financial advice.  Do your own research or seek advice from a Registered Financial Advisor.

This week was a bonanza for the Dart Throwers.  No matter where the dart fell on the list of ASX 200 stocks - you probably picked a winner.

XJO Monthly Chart.

The first two weeks of the new month of January, 2023 have been good for the XJO, up + 4.11.   The Index is above the 8-MEMA, Hull MA13, 50-MMA, 200MMA.  The only resistances are the Supertrend (7/1.5) and horizontal resistance.  

Monthly RSI is at 55.55

It's still early in the month so no decisions should be made on the basis of this chart.

XJO Weekly Chart.

                                            

In the past five days, XJO risen +3.07%.  The bullish candle from the first week of January has seen follow through buying in the second week.

The Index bounced off both the 50-Week MA and the Supertrend (7/1.5).  It also finished well above the 8-Week EMA.  Hull MA13 is flat.  A move higher would give a medium term buy signal.

Weekly RSI is at 60.42.  That's above the Monthly RSI of 55.55, which suggests a bullish XJO.

XJO Daily Chart.

XJO has been up for seven of the past eight days.  This has been a short-covering rally precipitated by the big bullish candle on 4 January, which completely reversed the big bearish candle on 3 January.  That trapped a lot of short traders now scrambling to get out of trouble.

Daily RSI is at 64.02.  Daily RSI is above the Weekly RSI (60.42) which is above the Monthly RSI (55.55).  That's a bullish configuration.

XJO is now at horizontal resistance after a strong run-up, which suggests we might see a rest or a pull-back here.

Monthly, Weekly and Daily RSIs. - Sectors + XJO + Gold + Composite Bonds

The above column chart shows the Monthly, Weekly and Daily RSIs for each sector.  This can provide information about bullish sectors and sectors to watch (might turn bullish).  This can be used as an initial filter before making stock selections.

Bullish Sectors:  slope upwards from left to right.

Bearish Sectors:  slope downwards from left to right.

Sectors to Watch.  First two columns slop upwards, third column is below second column.

Last Week, only one sector was bullish - XMJ (Materials).  Gold Miners Industry Group (part of XMJ) was also bullish.

This week we have a slew of bullish readings:  XXJ, XMJ, XDJ,  XIJ, XTJ, XPJ, XNJ, XGD, XJO, IAF

Bearish readings:  XEJ, XHJ. XSJ is bearish in the medium to long-term but showing a short-term bounce.

I have no sectors on a bullish "watch list".

XMJ is short-term overbought with an RSI >70.  Expect consolidation or a pull-back in the coming week.

NewHighs-NewLows Cumulative.

This is a long-term lagging indicator.

This is the first time since early 2022 that NH-NL Cum has risen above the 20-Day MA (blue dotted line).  That's a bullish event.  While the NH-NL Cum stays above the 10-Day MA long term investors can feel more comfortable with their investments.

I've developed another long-term metric "StrongStocks-WeakStocks" which is similar to NH-NL but gives signals a little earlier than NH-NL  SS-WS is up for the ninth week in a row and has moved well above its 5-Week MA.   This week there were 33 Strong Stocks and 2 Weak Stocks.   That's the best result since I began keeping records two years ago.

The SS-SW line has once again kicked up from the 5-Week MA.  This remains bullish.

% of Stocks above key moving averages.

1.  % of stocks above 10-Day Moving Average: Last Week 46%, This Week 78%.  

2.  % of stocks above 50-Day Moving Average, Last Week 46%, This Week 70%.  

3.  % of stocks above 200-Day Moving Average, Last Week 41%, This Week 52%.  

All three indicators are now bullish.  The short term indicator (stocks above 10DMA) is now pushing up near to an overbought reading of 80%.  Any more improvement could see a pull-back.

Conclusion.

 

January has started well for the XJO and many Sectors are now giving bullish readings.

The move up in the second week of January has been very strong - perhaps a little too strong.  Any more upside improvement is likely to be followed by a downside movement.  At this stage, it seems that any dip will be bought.

XMJ has been the strongest sector with a short-term RSI >70.  With such strength, I'd expect a pull-back in XMJ in the coming week.  That could flow over into the broad market.

Stay Safe. 

Finspiration Australia. Chart Analysis for Australian and International Stock Markets + Bitcoin

 14/1/2023.  Finspiration Saturday Report.

Everything is up.  (Not quite - but you get the idea.)

Yesterday in Australia.

XJO up +0.66%.  Nine out of eleven sectors were up.  XUJ (Utilities) was flat, and XSJ (Staples) down -0.5%,  both are defensives.  Best performers were XEJ (Energy) +1.5%, Discretionary +1.4%, XXJ (Financials) and Telecommunications both up +1.1%.

XJO is now coming up to a major resistance area, the November high.  A break above that would be bullish.

Overnight in the U.S.

Dow Jones +0.33%.  SP500 +0.4%.  Nasdaq +0.71%.  Small Caps +0.56%.  Banks +0.7%.

An interesting night in the U.S.  The indices dropped at the opening after some of the big banks reported disappointing earnings.  But then the banks flew higher.  You can see what a broad range it was by looking at the last candle on the BKX chart.  Wells Fargo, for instance, opened lower but finished up +3%.  So much for disappointing earnings!  Countering those rises in the banks were falls in autos, Ford -5% and General Motors -4%.

SP500.

SP500 is up five of the past six days, and the only down day was only down marginally.

The chart is bullish.  The trend is up.  I like to stay with the trend until it has obviously finished.

It was a good effort by the American market coming at the end of the week and facing a three day break - those conditions often see profit taking.

Commodities.

Commodities Index +0.98%.  Energy +1.27%.  Base Metals +1.46%.  Agriculture +0.15%.  Gold +1.2%.

Base Metals and Gold are both in exponential rises.  Both are overbought.  RSI on DBB is now at 73.1.  RSI on Gold is now at 74.15.  Exponential rises can go on for longer than we can think - but usually revert to the down-side just as quickly.  Careful.

Bitcoin.

Bitcoin continues its great upside run.  It is now coming up to its early November high.  With an RSI at 84, it might rest here, but any dip will probably be a buying opportunity.

Finspiration Australia. Chart Analysis for Australian and International Stock Markets + Bitcoin.

 13/1/2023.  Inspiration Friday Morning Report.

Inflation rate eases, U.S. continues its upside trend.

Source:  U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Dow Jones -0.84%.  SP500 +0.34%.  Nasdaq +0.64%.  Small Caps +1.4%.  Banks +0.54%.

Eight out of eleven sectors were up.  The only sectors down were defensives:  Health, Utilities and Staples.

SP500.

After some down-side action, SP500 finished on the positive side.  The Chart is bullish staying with the upside trend.

Commodities.

Commodities Index +0.82%.  Energy +0.91%.  Base Metals +1.43%.  Agriculture +0.67%.  Gold +1.16%.

Base Metals and Gold are now both overbought with RSIs above 70 - a pull-back can't be far away.

At 11.40 this morning, XJO is up +0.9% - staying with the up-trend.

Bitcoin.

Bitcoin had a huge overnight move, up >7%.  Chart is bullish.  BTC is now overbought.  Action this morning (Oz time), down a little on heavy volume suggests a pull-back.

Finspiration Australia. Chart Analysis for Australian and International Stock Markets.

 12/1/2023.  Finspiration Thursday Evening Report.

Another strong day on the Australian stock market.

XJO up +1.18%.  All eleven sectors were up.  The worst was Utilities +0.2%.  

Financials +1.5%, Materials +1.4%.  Materials +1.2%.

In a surprise move today, Australian VIX went up today from 13.05 to 13.32.  VIX usually moves inversely to the XJO.  Options traders tend to be savvy, so we might see a down day tomorrow on the ASX.

The trend in the XJO is, however, up - stay with the trend until it ends.

Inspiration Australia. Chart Analysis for Australian and International Stock Charts + Bitcoin.

 12/1/23.  Finspiration Thursday morning Report.

In the U.S., stocks continued their New Year surge higher.

Dow Jones +0.8%.  SP500 +1.29%.  Nasdaq +1.76%.  Small Caps +1.11%.  Banks +0.88%.

SP500.

SP500 has poked above the Kumo Cloud.  RSI and MACD Histogram are both above their mid-lines.  Those are bullish signals.

Commodities.

Commodities Index +1.8%.  Energy +2.72%.  Base Metals +1.4%.  Agriculture -0.26%.  Gold -0.07%.

DBB (Base Metals) is overbought and due for a pull back.

ASX is up strongly this morning at 11.30. a.m. XJO is up +1.1%.

Bitcoin.

Bitcoin has formed a "sauce-pan" bottom and kicked up from there.  It is looking bullish.

Last night, up it was up +0.51% and kicked on again today.  

Finspiration Australia. Chart Analysis for Australian and International Stock Markets.

11/1/2023.  Finspiration Wednesday Evening Report.

The Australian market dropped a little on Tuesday but recovered strongly on Wednesday.

XJO up +0.9% on Wed. after Falling -0.28 on Tuesday.

XJO is above the Kumo Cloud.   Bullish.

Hull MA13 and Supertrend (7/1.5) are both heading to the upside.  MACD Histogram is above zero and RSI is above 50.  All four indicators are Bullish.

Stay with the trend.

 

Finspiration Australia. Chart Analysis for Australian and International Stock Markets.

 9/1/2023.  Finspiration Evening Report

XJO up moderately today +0.59%.

XJO has been up four days in a row and some intra-day selling occurred during the day.  So it might be ready for a rest.  VIX was also up today - which is unusual.  VIX usually trades inversely to XJO.

The chart is looking bullish.  It finished the day above the Kumo Cloud - that's a bullish indication.  RSI finished above 50 - another bullish indication.  It would be better if MACD Histogram was above zero.

So we might be in for a rest for a couple of days, but the trend is up.

I'll be out of the office for a couple of days.  Next up-date on Wednesday Evening.