Finspiration Australia. Chart Analysis for Australian and International Stock Markets

   8/1/23.  Weekend Report - The Week That Was.  Week Ended 6/1/23.

 Chart Analysis on this Blog is purely descriptive.  It is written for informational and educational purposes and should not be taken as financial advice.  Do your own research or seek advice from a Registered Financial Advisor.

ASX was up this week after being down for the fourth week in a row - not a great December, historically the best month of the year.  

XJO Monthly Chart.

The first week of the new month of January, 2023 has been good for the XJO. up +1.01.   The Index is above the 8-MEMA, Hull MA13, 50-MMA, 200MMA.  The only resistance is the Supertrend (7/1.5).  

RSI is at 52.79.

It's still early in the month so no decisions should be made on the basis of this chart.

XJO Weekly Chart.

                                            

In the past five days, XJO risen +1.01%.  That terminated four weeks down in a row.

This week's candle looks bullish - with a long lower tail and the body of the candle completely engulfing the previous week's candle.

The Index bounced off both the 50-Week MA and the Supertrend (7/1.5).  It also finished above the 8-Week EMA.  If the Hull MA13 turns up (it is currently trending down) that would reinforce the bullish status of this chart.

Weekly RSI is at 53.7.  That's above the Monthly RSI of 52.79, which suggests a bullish XJO.

XJO Daily Chart.

Early in the week, XJO fell below the important 200-DMA, it quickly bounced back above the 200-Day MA.

For those familiar with "Order Block" Theory, an Order Block existed back on 18 Nov. 2022.  The action this week looks like an effort by big players to "mitigate" that order block and revert to the upside.  Expect more upside.  

Daily RSI is at 50.16.  A move by Daily RSI above Weekly RSI of 53.7 would be another bullish indicator.  It wouldn't take much for a move like that to happen.

Monthly, Weekly and Daily RSIs.

The above column chart shows the Monthly, Weekly and Daily RSIs for each sector.  This can provide information about bullish sectors and sectors to watch (might turn bullish).  This can be used as an initial filter before making stock selections.

Bullish Sectors:  slope upwards from left to right.

Bearish Sectors:  slope downwards from left to right.

Sectors to Watch.  First two columns slop upwards, third column is below second column.

Bullish Sectors:  Only one:  Materials (XMJ).  The Gold Miners Industry Group (part of XMJ) is also bullish.

Bearish Sectors:  XXJ, XEJ, XTJ, XHJ, XSJ, XUJ, XNJ.

Sectors to Watch (could turn bullish):  Only one - Property (XPJ).

XJO is also on the "watch" list.  Weekly RSI is above Monthly RSI, but Daily RSI is below Weekly RSI.  It wouldn't take much for XJO to turn bullish.

IAF (Composite Bond Fund) is also in the "Watch" Category.  It has been in a long-term down-trend with a Monthly RSI of 33.54, but the Weekly RSI 45.61is showing strength.  Daily RSI is at 44.08, so it wouldn't take much for Daily RSI to rise above Weekly RSI.

Bullish Stocks in XMJ are:  AWC, BHP, BLD, BSL, Gold, EVN, FMG, NCM, NST, OZL, RIO, S32.

Note that apart from Boral (BLD) all are miners or mining related (Gold).

These are not recommendations - check the daily charts and see if they are suitable for "buying" - or seek the advice of a qualified financial adviser.

NewHighs-NewLows Cumulative.

Early in December, NH-NL Cum briefly rose above the 10-Day MA but then fell.  It is currently rising again but still below its 10-Day MA.  This week we had three days when New Highs were greater than New Lows.  It wouldn't take much now to flip this into a bullish framework.

This is a lagging indicator but bullish signals are usually highly reliable.  At this stage, this chart is suggesting that long-term investors watch this market carefully.

I've developed another long-term metric "StrongStocks-WeakStocks" which is similar to NH-NL but gives signals a little earlier than NH-NL.SS-WS is up for the eighth week in a row and has moved well above its 5-Week MA.   This week there were 12 Strong Stocks and 6 Weak Stocks.  

The SS-SW line has once again kick up from the 5-Week MA.  This remains bullish.

% of Stocks above key moving averages.

1.  % of stocks above 10-Day Moving Average: Last Week 35%, This Week 46%.  

2.  % of stocks above 50-Day Moving Average, Last Week 42%, This Week 46%.  

3.  % of stocks above 200-Day Moving Average, Last Week 41%, This Week 41%.  

Incremental improvement has occurred in the short term and medium term readings.  All three readings remain under 50 - the bearish level.

Conclusion.

 

January has started well for the XJO but the only Sector with clear Bullish credentials is the Materials (XMJ)

XJO has bounced strongly off the 200-Day MA.  More upside would turn the broad market Index into a bullish configuration

America and Europe were both up strongly on Friday night.  So we could see the XJO flip into the bullish category in the coming week.

Stay Safe. 

Finspiration Australia. Chart Analysis for Australian and International Stock Markets + Bitcoin.

   7/1/23.  Finspiration Saturday Morning Report.

ASX up.  U.S. up.  Europe up.  Energy flat.  Gold up.  Bitcoin up.

XJO Daily Chart.

XJO has broken marginally above the down-trending channel and the Kumo Cloud.  It still faces resistance from the Supertrend Line and the Base Line of the Ichimoku system.  Given events overnight, a break above resistance seems likely.

U.S, Overnight.

Dow Jones +2.12%.  SP500 +2.28%.  Nasdaq +2.56%.  Small Caps +2.53%.  Banks+2.54%.

Euro STOXX600 +1.16

SP500.

SP500 has broken up from its sideways consolidation.  It still has overhead resistance from the Supertrend Line, Base Line of the Ichimoku system, the top of the Kumo Cloud.  That may cause a pause in proceedings, but the strength of the break-out suggests further upside.

Commodities.

Commodities Index +0.55%.  Energy -0.1%.  Base Metals +2.18%.  Agriculture -0.41%.  Gold +1.87%.

Gold 

Gold.

Gold has broken out above its trend channel.  Expect more upside.

Bitcoin.

Bitcoin +0.49%.  Bitcoin is in a long sideways consolidation.  Wait.

Finspiration Australia. Chart Analysis for Australian and International Stock Markets + Bitcoin

  6/1/23.  Finspiration Friday Morning Report.

U.S. down.  Europe Up.  Energy down.  Gold down.  Bitcoin flat.

Dow Jones -1.02%.  SP500 -1.1%.  Nasdaq -1.47%.  Small Caps -0.88%.  Banks -1.1%.

It was a case last night of:  "Good news is bad news."  Jobs reports last night were good - which means the Fed will keep on raising interest rates, bad news.

SP500.

SP500 remains in a sideways consolidation and below the down-sloping 20-Day MA.  RSI and Stochastic RSI remain below their mid-lines.  Wait.

Commodities.

Commodities Index -0.51%.  Energy -0.52%.  Base Metals +0.84%.  Agriculture -0.25%.  Gold -1.25%.

Gold appears to be headed back down to support of the 20-Day MA.

Gold.

Gold is falling from the top of its trend channel.  If it comes back to support of the 20-Day MA - it will probably bounce there.

Bitcoin.

Bitcoin +0.15%.  Bitcoin is in a long sideways consolidation.  Wait.

After 45 minutes of trading this morning, XJO is up +0.3% and looks like heading higher.

5/1/2023. Finspiration Report, Thursday Evening.

XJO finished flat today, +0.06% after yesterday's big rise, up +1.63%

XJO Daily Chart.

Today's action was stopped by the resistance of the 20-Day MA and the restraining line of the down-trending channel.  Not a great sign.  

A move by Stochastic RSI above its mid-line could be a "buy" signal.

The best performing sector today was Discretionary (XDJ) following on from recent relatively good performance.

There is still no sign, however, that this is in a bullish trend.

XJO One-Day Chart.

XJO opened up higher today, but quickly fell away and basically drifted sideways till the end of trading.  

Hong Kong up +1.25% today after its big rise yesterday, +4%.  

European stocks have opened lower, with STOXX600 down -0.25%.  Dow Futures -0.24%, following Europe to the down-side. 

Inspiration Australia. Chart Analysis for the Australian and International Stock Market.

 5/1/23.  Finspiration Thursday Morning Report.

U.S. and Europe Positive.  Energy Down.  Gold up.  Bitcoin up.

Dow Jones +0.4%.  SP500 +0.75%.  Nasdaq +0.69%.  Small Caps +1.2%.  Banks +2.31%.

The major indices (DJ, SPX, NDX) aren't showing any real sign of direction.  Only the banks look really strong in the New Year.  That looks like the place to be.

SP500.

SP500 remains in a sideways consolidation and within the Kumo Cloud.  That's the no-trade zone. 

RSI and Stochastic RSI remain below their mid-lines.  Wait.

Commodities.

Commodities Index -1.79%.  Energy -2.85%.  Base Metals -0.98%.  Agriculture -1.2%.  Gold +0.94%.

Gold.

Gold is up to the top of its trend channel.  Expect a pull-back.  If it comes back to support of the Supertrend Line and bounces that would be very bullish.

Bitcoin.

Bitcoin +0.97%.  Bitcoin is above the Conversion Line but below the Base Line and the Supertrend.  It is in a modest up-trend which is unlikely to last for long.

4/1/2023. Finspiration Report, Wednesday Evening.

All yesterday's losses were recovered today + a bit more on top.  Nice.  XJO up +1.63%

XJO Daily Chart.

Today we have a bullish engulfing candle bouncing off the 50% retracement line.

A move by Stochastic RSI above its mid-line could be a "buy" signal.

XJO One-Day Chart.

Once the XJO got going today - there was no stopping it - right through to the end. 

Hong Kong up +3% today.  

European stocks have opened higher, with STOXX600 up +0.94% 

Dow Futures are up modestly, +0.34%.

  Chart Analysis on this Blog is purely descriptive.  It is written for informational and educational purposes and should not be taken as financial advice.  Do your own research or seek advice from a Registered Financial Advisor.

24/12/22.  Finspiration Wednesday Morning Report.

Overnight:  Dow Flat, Nasdaq down, Europe up, Commodities down.  Bitcoin down.  

 

Dow Jones -0.03%.  SP500-0.4%.  Nasdaq -0.76%.  Small Caps -0.17%.  Banks +0.61%.

U.S. market opened higher following Europe, but then collapsed.  A late afternoon rally eased the losses.

SP500.

The chart continues in the Kumo Cloud.  That's the "no trade" zone.  Plenty of overhead resistance remains.  A break above the base Line (red) would be a bullish signal.

Commodities.

Commodities Index -2.39%.  Energy -4.01%.  Base Metals-0.62%.  Agriculture -1.09%.  Gold +0.84%.

Gold is back to the top of its up-sloping channel.  Expect a return to the lower edge of the channel.

Iron Ore +5.56%.  That looks promising for oz big miners.

Bitcoin.

BTCUSD down more than -1% overnight.  Short-term, BTC is in a sideways consolidation pattern.

Long term, BTC remains bearish.

After an hour of trading, XJO is up more than +1%.