Finspiration Australia. Chart Analysis for Australian and International Stock Markets

 3/1/2023. Finspiration Report, Tuesday Evening.

Not a good start to the New Year with XJO down -1.31%.  A rally which started at about 1.00 p.m. knocked the worst of the losses from earlier in the day.

XJO Daily Chart.

Today's losses take the XJO down to the 50% retracement level of the two month rally which lasted for October and November.  So that could be a possible support level.

A move by Stochastic RSI above its mid-line could be a "buy" signal.

Losses today were exacerbated by large numbers of ETFs going ex-dividend and many of the banks' hybrid notes also going ex-dividend.

XJO One-Day Chart.

We can see in this chart the rally which occurred from 1.00 p.m. today.  That took the market up to the 23.8% retracement level of the day's range (high to low).  That's not sufficient to give us optimism about continued buying tomorrow.  (But better than a kick in the teeth.)

Most of the major European exchanges are not yet open for trading, but Italy has opened and is up +1.9%. That's a big difference from the pessimism which covered Australia today.

Dow Futures are currently up about +0.4%.  Again - very different from Oz.

I suspect that today's big down day on the Oz market was due to some big players taking advantage of low volume holiday trading to manipulate the market to the downside.  Expect an up day tomorrow.

Finspiration Australia. Chart Analysis for Australian and International Stock Markets.

 Finspiration Special Report,  New Year's Day Public Holiday - 2/1/23.

Three charts:  XJO, SPX, QQQ.

I noted in my weekly report that XJO was down to the 200-Day MA and a significant support/resistance line at about 7000.

I then put on a Fibonacci grid and the current level is at 38.2% retracement - adding further information to the ones above suggesting that we will see a bounce here.

Now, SP500 - not quite as convincing as XJO - but looking OK.

SP500 has been finding support at the 3800 level - which is represented by to support/resistance levels earlier in the year.

Putting a Fibonacci Retracement Grid on the chart, we see that the current level is the 50% retracement level.

So that gives the SP500 a good chance of a bounce here and out of its current sideways consolidation zone.

Hi DRG,

QQQ (ETF for Nasdaq) looks promising.

It is back to support.

28/29 December formed a two candle reversal pattern known as a Kicker. A Kicker occurs when the market has a big down day followed by a big up day - and the open of the up day is equal to or higher than the open of the down day. Stephen Bigalow, something of an expert on candle-sticks, says that the Kicker pattern is the strongest of the 12 major candlestick patterns.

This is what Bigalow says about the Kicker:

"What is the strongest of the 12 major candlestick patterns, or rather the entire list of candlestick signals? The Kicker signal. This signal demonstrates a severe change an investor sentiment. In fact, many investors suggest that if you see this signal then you should go long or short, depending upon whether it is bullish or bearish."

If you look at the bottom panel in the chart above, you will see a histogram for volume. It shows declining volume while QQQ is declining.

The received wisdom about volume is that declining volume on a down trend is bullish.  

The QQQ chart is looking bullish to me.

All of the above observations are meant to be short-term only in nature.

Stay Safe.

Finspiration Australia. Chart Analysis for Australian and International Stock Market

        1/1/23.  Weekend Report - The Week That Was.  Week Ended 30/12/22.

 Chart Analysis on this Blog is purely descriptive.  It is written for informational and educational purposes and should not be taken as financial advice.  Do your own research or seek advice from a Registered Financial Advisor.

ASX was down for the fourth week in a row - not a great December, historically the best month of the year.  

XJO Monthly Chart.

The month of December has been poor for the XJO, down -3.37%.   For the whole of 2022, XJO down -5.45%.  That's tolerable for the long term investor.

The Hull MA13 and the 8-Month EMA Have both turned up.  That's significant.  Remember that Hull MA13 was the first indicator to turn bearish back in October 2021.  

The chart in December was knocking on resistance of the Supertrend (7/1.5).  That caused the Index some problems.  

XJO Quarterly Chart.

Despite the poor results in December, the fourth Quarter of 2022 did well, up +8.72%.  That enabled the XJO to recover about half the loses experienced in the two middle quarters of the year.

XJO Weekly Chart.

                                            

In the past five days, XJO has fallen -0.97%.  

8-Week EMA and Hull MA13 has now turned down.  

XJO is now down to support of the 50-WMA and Supertrend (7/1.5)

The next few days may be crucial.  Either support holds, or XJO crashes to the down-side with the next support level around 6800.  XJO is currently at about 7000 (round figures).

XJO Daily Chart.

This chart emphasises the importance of the next few days.  XJO is now back to the 200-Day MA.  That's usually taken as the demarcation between bull and bear markets.  If XJO bounces here - the bull is still alive and kicking.  A fall through the 200-Day MA, and the bears will be cheering - it will also negate the Golden Cross (50-DMA crossing above the 200-DMA).  The 200-DMA is a powerful support/resistance level.  Continue to watch

ASX Sector Results for this week.

All eleven sectors were down this week.  XIJ was the best and only just down, -0.02%.  XDJ, which has been doing poorly in recent weeks, was relatively resilient, down -0.19%

XEJ (Energy) -1.64% and XPJ (Property) -1.69% were the two worst performers.  Because of international factors, XEJ tends to jump around a lot.  The next section of this report is a better guide to the fortunes of XEJ.

Relative Strength of Sectors.

RSI (Relative Strength Index) is calculated using the default setting of 14 days - almost three weeks of trading.  It provides a more reliable guide to changes in sectors than the one-week results which can jerk around quite a lot and, thus, RSI is probably a better guide to recent strength in the sectors. (Click here for a description of RSI.)

Ten out of eleven sectors have now fallen below the 50 RSI level.  The worst is Discretionary with an RSI of 35.32.  That makes it oversold, and, as we saw above, XDJ has been relatively resilient in the past week. 

The only sector above the mid-line (50) is XUJ (Utilities ) 53.6.  Next best are XMJ (Materials) 48.91 and XEJ (Energy) 46.  Resources remain the place to be. 

XJO below 50.  That's into bearish territory.

NewHighs-NewLows Cumulative.

Early this month, NH-NL Cum briefly rose above the 10-Day MA but now continues to fall below its 10-Day MA.  

This is a lagging indicator but bullish signals are usually highly reliable.  At this stage, this chart is suggesting that long-term investors stay away from this market.

I've developed another metric StrongStocks-WeakStocks which is similar to NH-NL but gives signals a little earlier than NH-NL.SS-WS is up for the seventh week in a row and has moved well above its 5-Week MA.   This week there were 7 Strong Stocks and 7 Weak Stocks.  That's flat.

The 5-Week MA is now close to the SS-SW line.  A weak reading next week would provide a sell signal.

% of Stocks above key moving averages.

1.  % of stocks above 10-Day Moving Average: Last Week 36%, This Week 35%.  

2.  % of stocks above 50-Day Moving Average, Last Week 57%, This Week 42%.  

3.  % of stocks above 200-Day Moving Average, Last Week 50%, This Week 41%.  

All measures are now in bearish territory.  We need to see improvement in all this measures to go long again.

% of stocks above the 200-Day MA fell again this this week and below its 5-Day MA.   It is also below  the bullish reading of 50%.

Conclusion.

 

December has been poor for the ASX.

XJO on the daily chart is now back to the crucial support level of the 200-DMA.

The next few days should give us some indication of market direction for January.

Stay Safe. 

Finspiration Australia. Chart Analysis for Australian and International Stock Markets + Bitcoin.

  31/12/22.  Saturday Finspiration Morning Report.

Wishing you the best for 2023. 

U.S. down a little, Europe down, Commodities up, Bitcoin flat, ASX up.

Dow Jones -0.22%.  SP500 --0.25%.  Nasdaq -0.11%.  Small Caps -0.45%.  Banks -0.17%.

Euro STOXX600 -1.27%.  

U.S. saw intra-day buying in the last hour of trading which took the worst out of the indices.  Europe was closed before that intra-day buying took place so their results remained poor.

SP500.

SP500 is in the "no trade" zone of the Kumo Cloud.  Overhead resistance remains with the Base Line of the Ichimoku system.

Both RSI and ROC remain below their mid-lines.  Wait.

To state the bleeding obvious:  No Santa Rally this year.

Commodities.

Commodities Index +0.9%.  Energy+1.9%.  Base Metals down -0.97%.  Agriculture flat 0.00%.  Gold +0.47%.

Gold continues in its long term up-trend.

XJO.

XJO had a narrow range day inside the range of the previous day.  The long upper wick on the candle indicates intra-day selling pressure.

It remains above the Kumo Cloud but below resistance of the Conversion Line and the Base Line.  This is more negative than positive.

Bitcoin.

Bitcoin down marginally -0.07%, and remains below key indicators.  I wouldn't touch this with money hidden your grannie's biscuit tin.

Finspiration Australia. Chart Analysis for Australian and International Stock Markets + Bitcoin.

 30/12/22.  Finspiration Morning Report.

U.S. up, Europe up, Commodities flat, Bitcoin

Dow Jones +1.05%.  SP500 +1.75%.  Nasdaq +2.59%.  Small Caps +2.2%.  Banks +1.7%.

In early trading, Europe was down but moved up after the U.S. opened.  Euro STOXX600 +0.68%.

SP500.

SP500 is in the "no trade" zone of the Kumo Cloud.  Overhead resistance remains with the Supertrend and the Base Line of the Ichimoku system.

Both RSI and ROC remain below the mid-line.  Wait.

Commodities.

Commodities Index -0.12%.  Energy -0.45%.  Base Metals flat 0.00%.  Agriculture -0.49%.  Gold +0.56%.

Gold continues to bounce off its rising 20-Day MA.

Bitcoin.

Bitcoin was up a little last night +0.44%, but remains below key indicators.  Avoid.

Finspiration Australia. Chart Analysis for Australian and International Stock Markets.

  28/12/22.  Finspiration Wednesday Evening Report.

XJO fell heavily -0.94% after being down >1.2% earlier in the day.

ROC14 went below zero on 12 Dec.  That was a sell signal.  That was confirmed by the MACD Histogram being below zero.

XHJ (Health) was the only sector up today, +0.21%.  Worst was XEJ (Energy) down a whopping -3.98%.

That was a big down day today which brings the index down to support of the Kumo Cloud.  That might produce an up-day tomorrow.

Bonds are doing better relatively to Stocks:

This chart provides reasonable buy/sell signals.  Buy stocks when the 10-day RS of stocks/bonds rises above zero.  Sell stocks when 10-Day RS of stocks/bonds falls below zero.

NH-NL Cumulative continues to lie below its 10-Day MA.  That's bearish.

Finspiration Australia. Chart Analysis for Australian and International Stock Markets. + Bitcoin

  Chart Analysis on this Blog is purely descriptive.  It is written for informational and educational purposes and should not be taken as financial advice.  Do your own research or seek advice from a Registered Financial Advisor.

29/12/22.  Finspiration Thursday Morning Report.

Overnight:  U.S. down, Europe down, Commodities down.  Bitcoin flat.  

 

Dow Jones -1.1%%.  SP500 -1.2%.  Nasdaq -1.35%%.  Small Caps --1.89%.  Banks -0.31%%.

Stochastic RSIs on major indices are below 50 - that keeps them in bearish territory.  

All eleven U.S. Sectors were down last night.

 SP500.

SP500 has broken marginally below the support of the Kumo Cloud.   Conversion Line is below the Base Line and Supertrend Line is blue - all bearish.

CCI and MACD Histogram are both showing positive divergences.  With an oversold RSI, that provides a chance for a move to the upside.

Commodities.

Commodities Index -1.13%.  Energy -1.58%.  Base Metals -1.36%. Agriculture +0.7%%.  Gold -3.15%.

Gold was down heavily but the up-trend remains intact.

In early morning trade in Australia down -0.75%.   Ten out of eleven sectors are down, the only sector up is XHJ (Health) breaking a recent run of outs.  XEJ (Energy) is leading to the downside.

Bitcoin.

BTCUSD down -1.04% overnight.  Conversion Line of the Ichimoku system has crossed below the Base Line - that's a bearish signal.  BTC is in a long term down-trend.