Finspiration Australia. Chart Analysis for Australian and International Stock Markets + Bitcoin.

 17/12/22.  Finspiration Saturday Report.

CNN has come out and said it:  

Dow tumbles on recession fears. So much for a Santa Claus rally.

You know what the cynic in me says. ............ Watch this space.

Overnight in America - yes the Dow did tumble.  Commodities also fell.

Dow Jones -0.85%.  SP500 -1.11%.  Nasdaq -0.97%.  Small Caps -0.9%.  Banks -0.77%.

SP500.

SP500 remains on a sell signal - triple bearish Supertrend Lines.

The Index fell to the 50-Day MA last night - that's a probable support level.  A little intra-day buying was seen in the Index.  That came in the last hour of trading which is often a sign that institutions are starting to play in this game.

Commodities.

Commodities Index -1.27%.  Energy -1.4%.  Base Metals -1.4%.  Agriculture -0.3%.  Gold was a bright spot, up +0.87%, bouncing off the 20-Day MA.

With stocks and commodities both down - there's not much hope for Australian stocks on Monday.

Bitcoin.

Bitcoin fell heavily last night.  It is back on a triple Supertrend Sell.  Avoid.

Yesterday in Australia.

Yesterday, XJO was down -0.78%.  It is down almost to a horizontal support level.

50DMA is above 200DMA - that's a Gold Cross.  Watch for a bounce in the near future. but not always reliable.  If XJO falls below the MAs that negates the Gold Cross signal.  Look for a bounce in the near future.

Finspiration Australia. Chart Analysis for Australian and International Stock Markets + Bitcoin.

 16/12/22.  Finspiration Morning Report.

Overnight in America - stock pull-back accelerates.

Dow Jones -2.25%.  SP500 -2.49%.  Nasdaq -3.23%.  Small Caps -2.39%.  Banks -1.88%.

Major indices gapped down at the opening and continued south through most of the session's trading.

SP500.

SP500 is down to horizontal support from the late October High.  That might hold.  Next level of major support is the 50-Day Moving Average which is a more likely target for this fall.

Commodities.

Commodities Index -1.21%.  Energy -1.27%.  Base Metals -2.44%.  Agriculture -0.05%.  Gold -1.64%.

With both stocks and commodities down overnight, there's little hope for the Australian market today.

I haven't seen any calls yet that the Santa Rally has been "cancelled".  When we see that, I think that will signal a start of the Santa Rally for this year.

Bitcoin.

Bitcoin overnight followed stocks and gold lower.  Down -2.24%.

Bitcoin might find support at the next Supertrend line.  A break below that would indicate further falls.

Finspiration Australia. Chart Analysis for Australian and International Stock Markets.

15/12/22.  Finspiration Report Thursday.

XJO fell today, following the U.S. lower.

 XJO remains in a sideways consolidation.  Wait to see which way this breaks.

Finspiration Australia. Chart Analysis for Australian and International Stock Markets + Bitcoin.

15/12/22.  Finspiration Thursday Morning Report.

The Federal Reserve delivered what the market expected:  +0.5% interest rate rise and a hawkish view going forward.  The stock market sold off - "Sell the News".

Overnight in America.

 Dow Jones -0.42%.  SP500 -0.61%.  Nasdaq -0.76%.  Small Caps -0.81%.  Banks -1.69%.

SP500.

SP500 remains in a sideways consolidation.  It finished last night at 3995.32.  The boundaries of the consolidation are 4100-3919.  Watch for a break out of the consolidation for future direction.

Commodities.

Commodities Index +0.77%.  Energy +1.47%.  Base Metals -0.59%.  Agriculture -0.1%.  Gold -0.24%.

After 40 minutes of trading today, XJO is down -0.35%.

Bitcoin.

Bitcoin was up just +0.23% but suffered intra-day selling.  The pipe stack on last night's candle shows the extent of the selling.  Such a candle coming at the 50-Day MA suggests we will see more selling.

Finspiration Australia. Chart Analysis for Australian and International Stock Markets.

 14/12/22.  Finspiration Report Wednesday Evening Report.  

XJO had a strong finish today after early hesitancy.

The candle-stick formation indicates an upside break-out from the recent short-term sideways consolidation.

The first of the super trend lines has turned positive (from blue to yellow).  We need to see all three Supertrend lines turn yellow.

The index is turning up from recent short-term oversold conditions - see two relevant Stochastic indicators.

This may be the start of the fabled Santa Rally - but I'd like to see more upside movement to be confident.

Tonight will bring the announcement of the Fed. Reserve's announcement on interest rates.  0.5% rise is expected after recent rises of 0.75%.  

Inspiration Australia. Chart Analysis for Australian and International Stock Markets + Bitcoin

 14/12/22.  Finspiration Morning Report, Wednesday.

Dow up modestly overnight.  Commodities up strongly.

Dow Jones +0.3%.  SP500 +0.73%.  Nasdaq +1.01%.  Small Caps +0.35%.  Banks +0.04%.

CPI figures came in lower than expected (but still high) that had the effect of stocks opening gap up, but intra-day selling knocked the top off most of that.  

SP500.

Last night's dark candle indicates the extent of intra-day selling in the SP500.

Supertrend Lines show one bullish (yellow) and two bearish (blue) lines - a non-trending situation.

SP500 hit the top Supertrend line and above the 200-Day MA, but declined to finish below the 200-Day MA.  

The Index needs to turn all three Supertrend lines yellow (bullish) to give a new "buy" signal.

Commodities.

Commodities Index +1.65%.  Energy +2.42%.  Base Metals +1.13%.  Agriculture +0.61%.  Gold +1.71%.

The better than expected CPI figures resulted in the U.S. Dollar falling.  US$ has an inverse relationship to the price of Commodities.  The US$ fell last night, so Commodities priced in US$ rose.

Iron Ore Futures -0.3%.

Bitcoin.

Bitcoin was up >3% last night, giving some optimism for further rises.  It needs to turn all three Supertrend lines to yellow to give a "buy" signal.  Last time that happened, the rise was short-lived.  So don't get your hopes up too much.  While BTC remains below the 200-Day MA, I'll continue to believe that any rally is a counter-trend rally, likely to fail.

Finspiration Australia. Chart Analysis for Australian and International Stock Markets.

 13/12/22.  Finspiration Report Tuesday Evening.

ASX had a positive if disappointing day on the market today.

In early trading, XJO was up about +0.6% but weakened during the day to finish up +0.31%,

The chart remains in a short-term down-trend with a Triple Supertrend sell signal.

On the plus side, the 50-Day MA is close to completing a "Gold Cross" above the 200-Day MA.  That is usually taken by chartists as a change to a bull market.

Financials (XXJ) did well today, up +1.4% but the market was pulled back by a hit on the miners, XMJ down -1.4%.

Despite the positive result on the XJO, VIX rose today +2.05%,  Vix normally trades inversely to the major market index.

Breadth was flat today.  Advances 631. Declines 639.  New Highs 10, New Lows 13.

The big news tonight will be from the U.S. where the Consumer Price Index will be revealed.  That's a guide to inflation and what the Fed will do at its meeting this week.

Stay Safe.