Finspiration Australia. Chart Analysis for Australian and International Stock Markets.

  6/11/22.  Sunday Report - The Week That Was.  Week Ended 11/11/22,

XJO Monthly Chart.

The down-trend in the Monthly Chart may have been reversed.

The Hull MA13 has turned up.  Remember that this was the first indicator to turn bearish back in October 2021.  If it can remain up at the end of the month, we will have had one significant change on the indicators.

This week, the chart has finished above the 8-Month Exponential Moving Average and above one of the Supertrend Lines.  Another bullish sign.  

If these gains can hold until the end of the month, we are entering a new bullish trend.

XJO Weekly Chart.

                                            

XJO had an exceptional week this week with the index up +3.58%.  That's the third week in a row that it's been up, and momentum is increasing not decreasing.

Hull MA13 and both Supertrend Lines are bullish.  The index has formed a double bottom

The Index has closed above the 50-Week MA which is a bullish signal.

XJO Daily Chart.

XJO has finished decisively above the 200-Day MA.  That's bullish.

RSI is at 67.08 - close to the overbought level of 70.  It might get over that given solid results in the U.S. on Friday.  

Look to buy pull-backs.

SP500 Weekly Chart

SP500 had a great week, up +5.9%.  It remains below its 50-Day MA and lags the XJO in that regard.  That's mainly because of the poor results in big tech stocks which have taken a caning in recent months.

Both Supertrend Lines are now bullish and Hull MA13 has turned up.  Those are bullish events.

SP500 was up +0.92% on Friday after its big rise on Thursday of +5.54%.

SP500 weekly is in an uptrend - Higher High and Higher Low.  Stay with the trend.

ASX Sector Results for this week.

It was a good week for the XJO with ten out of eleven sectors up.   The only negative sector was Energy (XEJ -2.24%).  It has been one of the leading sectors in recent times so a pull-back is to be expected.  

Financials (XXJ +0.92%) was a relative damp squib compared to some of the other sectors.  XXJ has been a leading sector, so we're probably seeing rotation out of that sector into some of the stronger ones.

Four sectors rose >5%.  (Materials, Health, Utilities, Property).  The big rise in Utilities was due to take-over activity in that sector. 

Relative Strength of Sectors.

RSI (Relative Strength Index) is calculated using the default setting of 14 days - almost three weeks of trading.  It provides a more reliable guide to changes in sectors than the one-week results which can jerk around quite a lot and, thus, RSI is probably a better guide to recent strength in the sectors. (Click here for a description of RSI.)

 All eleven sectors are above the 50 level - that represents a bullish result.  

The strength in Utilities comes up clearly again in this graph.

Gold Miners (XGD) is above RSI/70 so it is well overbought.  We might see a pull-back in the leaders in the XGD leaders group, e.g., NCM and NST.

NewHighs-NewLows Cumulative.

  

This is a lagging indicator but bullish signals are usually highly reliable.  

This is a metric for the long-term investor.  While NH-NL Cumulative remains below its 10-Day Moving Average, it is best for long term investors to remain cautious and defensive regarding the market.

The gap between the NH-NL Cum and the 10-Day MA has narrowed down so a new bull signal may not be far off.

% of Stocks above key moving averages.

1.  % of stocks above 10-Day Moving Average: Last Week 59%, This Week 83%.  

2.  % of stocks above 50-Day Moving Average, Last Week 58%, This Week 83%.  

3.  % of stocks above 200-Day Moving Average, Last Week 35%, This Week 44%.  

The two shorter term measures (Nos. 1 & 2) are now >80%.  That's an overbought signal.  Expect some weakness in the market in coming days.  

Stocks >200Day MA have improved above the crucial 40% level.  That suggests that any pull-back will be bought.

% of stocks above the 200-Day MA rose again this week.  Steady improvement can be seen in the bar chart and the 5-Week MA is rising.  

Conclusion.

 

The ASX is now looking bullish.  We can expect more upside early next week,  but the ASX market in the short term, is now at or close to being overbought - depending on how you measure it.  Expect a pull-back in the near future - and that will probably be a chance to buy into this market.

Stay Safe

Finspiration Australia. Chart Analysis for Australian and International Stock Markets + Bitcoin.

 12/11/22.  Finspiration Morning Report.

Overnight stocks extend rally.  Commodities rise.  Bitcoin pulls back.

Dow Jones +0.1%.  SP500 +0.92%.  Nasdaq +1.88%.  Small Caps +0.56%.  Banks +1%.

SP500.

SP500 is in an up-trend from mid-October.  It seems headed for the 200-Day MA.  (DJ is already over that level.) 

We are now in a buy-the-dips scenario.  

Commodities.

Commodities Index +1.91%.  Energy +2.09%.  Base Metals +3.08%.  Agriculture +0.25%.  Gold +0.66%.

With both stocks on commodities on the rise, we should have another good day on the ASX on Monday.

Bitcoin.

Bitcoin fell back -5.84% overnight.  This remains a day-trader's market.  Long term investors might look elsewhere.

Stay Safe

Finspiration Australia. Chart Analysis for Australian and International Stock Markets + Bitcoin

 11/11/22.  Finspiration Morning Report.

 - Whooshka!.  

Overnight in America  - Whooshka!.  

Dow Jones +3.7%.  SP500 +5.54%.  Nasdaq +7.35%.  Small Caps +5.9%.  Banks +5.75%.

Dow Jones.

DJ is now well clear of the 200-Day MA.  That's one criteria often taken of a bull market.

The Index may be forming a rising wedge - which is bearish.  We'll have to monitor that to see how it develops.

Commodities.

Commodities Index +0.9% - finding support at the 20-Day MA.  Energy +0.85%.  Base Metals +1.76%.  Agriculture +0.3%.  Gold +3.04%.

Overnight ASX Futures suggest that our market will open about +2% higher.

Bitcoin.

Along with other risk assets, Bitcoin had a great night, up >13%.  This is a great avenue for day traders. Big money to be made.

For the longer term, the future of Bitcoin remains dubious.  Plenty of overhead resistance to be overcome before it looks bullish again.

Finspiration Australia. Chart Analysis for Australian and International Stock Markets. + Bitcoin.

 10/11/22.  Morning Report.

American Indices keel over, Commodities weaken, ASX set to fall, Bitcoin smashed again.  (Doom and gloom).

Overnight in America:

Dow Jones -1.95%.  SP500 -2.08%.  Nasdaq -2.48%.  Small Caps -2.29%.  Banks -2.2%.

Dow Jones.

DJ has been the strongest of the major market indices in the U.S.  It has been the first to break above the 200-Day MA.  It has since been oscillating around that important dynamic support/resistance line.

Bollinger Bands are an interesting technical analysis tool.  One of the first things you learn about BBs is that a tag of the upper or lower bands is not, of itself, a buy or sell signal.  A chart can climb up an upper band or crawl down a lower band for considerable periods of time.  That effect is clearly seen in the above chart.  (See here for Bollinger on Bollinger Bands.)

An important pattern with BBs is the M Top.  That occurs when the chart closes outside the BBs, pulls back to a low, then closes higher but inside the BBs.  A break below the low is a sell signal.  In the above chart the low occurred on 3 November.  We'll watch carefully for a break below the low of 3 November.

Commodities.

Commodities Index -2.31$.  Energy -3.37%.  Base Metals -1.52%.  Agriculture -0.45%.  Gold -0.5%.

Iron Ore Futures -2.1%.

Overnight ASX Futures down -0.76%.

Bitcoin.

Bitcoin was smashed last night, down -15.9% in US$.  Avoid.

Finspiration Australia. Chart Analysis for Australian and International Stock Markets. + Bitcoin

 9/11/22.  Morning Report.

Overnight in America.  Stocks rise again.

Dow Jones +1.02%.  SP500 +0.56%.  Nasdaq +0.49%.  Small Caps +0.12%.  Banks +0.56%.

SP500.

SP500 is up for three days in a row and running into resistance of the Supertrend Line.

MAs 3/8/20/34 are all aligned in bullish fashion so there is plenty of nearby support.  I doubt the resistance of the Supertrend will hold up advance for too long.  

Commodities.

Commodities Index -1.21%.  Energy -2.37%.  Base Metals +1.28%.  Agrivculture -0.5%.  Gold +2.31%.

ASX should have another strong day today.

Bitcoin.

Bitcoin had a big fall last night down about -10% in USD.  It is back down into bear country.  Avoid.

Finspiration Australia. Chart Analysis for Australian and International Stock Markets

8/11/22.  Evening Report.

ASX 200 closed modestly higher today.  Up +0.36%

 XJO has had three days to the upside but is still overshadowed  by Thursday's big fall.

Until the Supertrend Line changes from blue to yellow, it is best to remain cautious,

The medium term trend is up - stay with that.

Stay Safe,

Finspiration Australia. Chart Analysis for Australian and International Stock Markets.

 8/11/22.  Morning Report.

Overnight in America, Stocks rise again.

Dow Jones +1.31%.  SP500 +0.96%.  Nasdaq +0.85%.  Small Caps +0.98%.  Banks +0.7%.

SP500.

After bouncing off the 20-Day MA, SP500 has given a new buy signal with the Supertrend Line switching from blue to yerllow and the Stochastic rising above 20.

Commodities.

Commodities settle back down after Friday's humungous rise.

Commodities Index -0.87%.  Energy -0.87%.  Base Metals -1.26%.  Agriculture +0.35%.  Gold -0.4%.

After 30 minutes of trading, ASX200 is up +0.15%.

Bitcoin.

Overnight, Bitcoin was down -2.38% and continued to fall a little in morning trade.

Supertrend remains bullish.  Stay with the up-trend.