Finspiration Australia. Chart Analysis for Australian and International Stock Markets.

 6/11/22.  Weekly Wrap - Week ended 4/11/22.

XJO Monthly Chart.

XJO continues to hold at support of the 50-Month Moving Average.

It remains in a down-trend, below the 8-Month Exponential Moving Average and below both Supertrend Lines.  This down-trend started over a year ago.

The average bear market is 289 days - or about nine months.  We may be seeing a sustainable rebound - but after only one week in November, it is too early to say.

XJO Weekly Chart.

                                            

XJO had a good week this week with the index up +1.57% after being up  +1.63% the previous week.  The two Supertrend Lines on this chart are yellow, i.e., up-trending.

Hull MA13 is also indicating an up-trend.

These are medium term signals.

A move back above the 50-Week MA would be a bullish signal.

XJO Daily Chart.

XJO is locked between resistance of the 200-Day MA and horizontal support at about 6800 (round figures).

The 200-DMA has acted as support or resistance multiple times in the past year.  (The above chart only shows three months).

A decisive break above 200-DMA would be bullish.  That is often seen as the demarcation line between bull and bear.

Action in the U.S. may prove to be decisive on Monday.  Stock indices were up strongly, but Commodities went berserk.  Below is the Commodities Index chart showing the action.

Commodities Index Daily Chart

DBC was up +3.38% on Friday.   Friday's candle looks like a rocket launch into outer space.  In the previous three months, the best DBC could do was about +2.75% (three times). 

That should also launch our energy and mining stocks up higher.  

BHP was up +9.75% higher in the U.S. on Friday night.  Don't expect the same result in Australia on Monday - but it will be a lot higher than it closed on Friday.  

ASX Sector Results for this week.

It was a good week for the XJO with ten out of eleven sectors up.   The two resource sectors did well this week, Materials +2.64% and Energy +4.96%.  The only negative sector was Consumer Staples, down marginally -0.15%.  Property was up marginally +0.07%

Relative Strength of Sectors.

RSI (Relative Strength Index) is calculated using the default setting of 14 days - almost three weeks of trading.  It provides a more reliable guide to changes in sectors than the one-week results which can jerk around quite a lot and, thus, RSI is probably a better guide to recent strength in the sectors. (Click here for a description of RSI.)

 Nine sectors out of eleven are above the 50 level - that represents a bullish result.  That's a dramatic improvement from tow weeks ago when only two sectors out of eleven were above 50.  Leadership is held by Energy (XEJ) Financials (XXJ).  Look to buy pull-backs in strong stocks in those two sectors.

NewHighs-NewLows Cumulative.

  

This is a lagging indicator but bullish signals are usually highly reliable.  

This is a metric for the long-term investor.  While NH-NL Cumulative remains below its 10-Day Moving Average, it is best for long term investors to remain cautious and defensive regarding the market.

% of Stocks above key moving averages.

1.  % of stocks above 10-Day Moving Average: Last Week 64%, This Week 59%.  

2.  % of stocks above 50-Day Moving Average, Last Week 43%, This Week 58%.  

3.  % of stocks above 200-Day Moving Average, Last Week 33%, This Week 35%.  

The two longer term measures (Nos. 2 & 3) both improved this week.  The slight weakness in No. 1 is due to the big sell-down on Thursday, but the overall picture is of an improving stock market breadth.

% of stocks above the 200-Day MA rose again this week.  Steady improvement can be seen in the bar chart and the 5-Week MA is rising.  

Conclusion.

 

Given the favourable stock and commodity rises in the U.S. on Friday night we should see a very strong day on the ASX on Monday.  Another test of the 200-Day MA is likely and a break above the 200-Day MA seems feasible in the coming week.

I'm expecting more upside in the near-term.

Stay Safe

Finspiration Australia. Chart Analysis for Australian and International Stock Markets. + Bitcoin.

 5/11/22.  Overnight in America, stocks rise but down for the week.

Dow Jones +1.26%.  SP500 +1.36%.  Nasdaq +1.29%.  Small Caps +1.54%.  Banks +2.55%,

SP500.

Trading was choppy after the Jobs Report, but an afternoon rally took the SP500 well into positive territory.  (Stock market adage:  Dumb money buys in the morning, smart money buys in the afternoon.

On Thursday, SP500 hit 3700 (round numbers) and has bounced on Friday.  The Thur/Fri action saw a successful test of the old restraining oblique trend line from early October.  That suggests we will see more upside.

The Supertrend Line (7/3) remains bullish.

Long term, SPX remains well below the 200-Day EMA - that's the long curved line at the top of the chart.

While SPX remains below the 200-Day EMA, I'll continue to think that any rally is a bear market rally.

Commodities - Whooska.

OMG - What happened?   Commodities Index +3.38%.  Energy +3.65%.  Base Metals +6.31%.  Agriculture +1.26%.  Gold +3.07%.

The best guess is that China will give up on its Covid Zero policy - re-opening the Chinese Economy.  That's good news for a resources based economy like Australia which has China as its major market.

In Australia yesterday.

On Friday, XJO successfully tested major horizontal support, after failing at the 200-Day MA on Thursday.  Those astounding Commodity prices on Friday night, suggest at least another test of the 200-Day MA and possibly a finish above that important support/resistance level.  Currently, XJO is about 1.5% below the 200-Day MA.  A move of more than 1.5% on Monday certainly looks feasible given those Commodity results.

Bitcoin

On Friday, Bitcoin was up >4% and continues its bullish action.  That's a (higher high, higher low) "go long" event.

Here's the Ichimoku Chart for BTCUSD:

BTCUSD remains within the Kumo Cloud.  More cautious investors might wait until the chart rises above th Kumo Cloud.

Finspiration Australia. Chart Analysis for Australian and International Stock Markets.

 4/11/22.  Morning Report.

Overnight in America, Stocks fall again, but intra-day buying is evident.

Dow Jones -0.46%.  SP500 -1.06%.  Nasdaq -1.73%.  Small Caps -0.55%.  Banks -1.42%.

SP500.

SP500 finished at 7320.  There may be a little more down side in this pull-back - perhaps to 7300.  If it gets there I'll be looking for a move to the upside.

Commodities.

Commodities Index flat -0.08%.  Energy flat +0.08%.  Base Metals -0.11%.  Agriculture -0.5%.  Gold -0.38%.

After 40 minutes of trading today, XJO is down modestly -0.3%.

BITCOIN.

Bitcoin was flat overnight, -0.16%.

Bitcoin remains in the Kumo Cloud - that's the no-trading zone.  Wait.

Finspiration Australia. Chart Analysis for Australian and International Stock Markets.

 3/11/22.  Morning Report.

Fed pulls the rug - stocks nose dive.

Dow Jones -1.55%.  SP500 -2.5%.  Nasdaq -3.36%.  Small Caps -3.41%.  Banks -1.97%.

SP500.

The up-trend in the SP500 is finished.  The Index is now down to the first level of horizontal support, that is unlikely to hold.  3700 looks like the next round number support level.

Iron Ore +0.4%.

Stochastic is in the oversold region.  Look for a move back above the 20 level for a buy signal.

Commodities.

Commodities Index +0.9%.  Energy +1.97%.  Base Metals -0.55%.  Agriculture -0.55%.  Gold -0.7%.

After 30 minutes of trading today, XJO is down >2%.  If we see a bounce today it is likely to be in the Energy Sector.

Bitcoin.

Bitcoin fell -2.17% overnight.  Could have been worse given the rout in tech stocks.  :)

BTC is inside the Kumo Cloud - that's the no-trade zone.  Wait for a move above the Kumo Cloud.

Finspiration Australia. Chart Analysis for Australian and International Stock Markets.

 2/11/22.  Evening Report.

XJO was up today just +0.14% - more or less flat ahead of the Fed. decision tonight.

Best sectors today were the two resources, XMJ up +1.1% and Energy +1.1%.

XJO is right at resistance of the 200-Day MA.  That's a key level.    It all depends on what happens tonight in the U.S.

Finspirtion Australia. Chart Analysis for Australian and International Stock Markets + Bitcoin

 2/11/22.  Morning Report.

Overnight, Stocks in America fall modestly ahead of Fed decision.

Dow Jones -0.24%.  SP500 -0.41%.  Nasdaq -0.89%.  Small Caps +0.45%.  Banks +0.7%

SP500.

SP500 has run into dual resistance - horizontal resistance and resistance from the lower edge of the Kumo Cloud.  Tonight's action after the Fed. decision should determine direction.

Short term, the trend remains up.  Plenty of support remains below - so this could be a buy-the-dip scenario.

Commodities.

Commodties Index +1.51%.  Energy +1.25%.  Base Metals +2.56%.  Agriculture +1.11%.  Gold +1.02%.

After thirty minutes of trading this morning, XJO is up about +0.3%.

Finspiration Australia. Chart Analysis for Australian and International Stock Markets.

 1/11/22.  Evening Report.

Australian stocks surge higher today.

 XJO finished up +1.65% today.  The RBA Interest Rate was raised +0.25% as expected which the market took as a signal to go higher.

All eleven sectors were up today, the worst (relatively) was Telecommunications +0.5%.  All other sectors were up >1%, the best being Materials +2.6%

The XJO is now close to the all important 200-Day MA.  The last time it approached this level, the XJO then fell.  

If the XJO can get over that hurdle, we should have a bull market on our hands.