23/10/22.  Weekly Wrap - Week ended 21/10/22.

XJO Monthly Chart.

XJO continues to hold at support of the 50-Month Moving Average.

It remains in a down-trend, below the 8-Month Exponential Moving Average and below both Supertrend Line.  This down-trend started a year ago.

The average bear market is 289 days - or about nine months.  We're beyond that now - so we could see a rebound soon.  It may have started this week.  A week ago, the monthly candle was blue, this week it has switched to yellow (bullish).

XJO Weekly Chart.

XJO had a good week this week with the index up +1.63%.  The two Supertrend Lines on this chart are opposing colours - one blue, one yellow, i.e., indecision or non-trending.

XJO Daily Chart.

XJO is in a short-term up trend, with both Supertrend Lines bullish.  The chart finished above the 50-Day MA.  A bounce on Monday (likely) should result in a bullish upside move confirming the 50-DMA as support.  Next trip might see a test of the 200-Day MA.

The XJO in three time frames (monthly, weekly, daily) are now out of sync.  Monthly - bearish, weekly - indecisive, daily - bullish.  

SP500 Daily.

SP500 had a big move on Friday night, up +2.46%.  That took the index up above the 50-Day MA after a two-day bull flag.  That should flow on to Australia on Monday.

ASX Sector Results for this week.

It was a good week for the XJO with eight out of eleven sectors up.   The two resource sectors were poor this week, Materials -0.87% and Energy -0.37%.  Best sectors were Property +6.84% and Utilities +5.56%.  

Relative Strength of Sectors.

RSI (Relative Strength Index) is calculated using the default setting of 14 days - almost three weeks of trading.  It provides a more reliable guide to changes in sectors than the one-week results which can jerk around quite a lot and, thus, RSI is probably a more reliable guide to recent strength in the sectors. (Click here for a description of RSI.)

 Seven sectors out of eleven are above the 50 level - that represents a bullish line.  That's a dramatic improvement over the previous week when only two sectors out of eleven were above 50.  Leadership is held by Financials (XXJ) - that's the largest sector in the ASX so that's positive result.

This week saw XXJ move clearly above the 200-DMA - this the line between bullish and bearish - that's a positive development from the largest sector in the ASX.

NewHighs-NewLows Cumulative.

  

This is a metric for the long-term investor.  While NH-NL Cumulative remains below its 10-Day Moving Average, it is best for long term investors to remain cautious and defensive regarding the market.

% of Stocks above key moving averages.

1.  % of stocks above 10-Day Moving Average: Last Week 35%, This Week 64%.  

2.  % of stocks above 50-Day Moving Average, Last Week 22%, This Week 43%.  

3.  % of stocks above 200-Day Moving Average, Last Week 21%, This Week 33%.  

Those metrics reflect the good rally we saw in the XJO this week.  It would be nice to see No.3 above 40%.  The short-term metric (No.1) is still below oversold - so we can expect more upside.

This week, the long-term metric (stocks above the 200-DMA) broke up above its 5-week moving average.  It is now in an up trend.

Conclusion.

 

Overall, the three time frames for the XJO are out of sync.  Short-term we are bullish - and above the 50-Day MA.

I'm expecting more upside in the near-term.

Coming up this week are a couple of market moving events, both the RBA and Federal Reserve (U.S.) hand down interest rate decisions.

Reporting season in the U.S. and Australia also continues.  Reports from major companies can jerk the market around.

Stay Safe

Finspiration Australia. Chart Analysis for Australian and International Stock Markets.

 29/10/22.  Morning Report.

Overnight, U.S. stocks surge higher, Apple up >7%.  Commodities fall.

Dow Jones +2.59%.  SP500 +2.46%.  Nasdaq +2.87%.  Small Caps +2.16%.  Banks +1.84%.

SP500.

Friday produced a bullish engulfing candle which took the SP500 above resistance of the 50-Day MA.  Next stop - the Ichimoku Cloud.  Stay with the up-trend until it has clearly ended.

Commodities.

Commodities Index -1.17%.  Energy -1.22%.  Base Metals -2.75%.  Agriculture -0.51%.  Gold -1.02%.

From an Australian perspective, overnight results are a mixed bag.  Clearly, resource stocks will continue to be under threat, while banks and technology stocks might prosper.

Yesterday in Australia.

Yesterday, the XJO suffered a down day, -0.87%.  It was not alone in that with Japan, Shanghai and Hong Kong also falling.

Yesterday's action came back to test the 50-Day MA as support.  Last night's action in the U.S. suggests the ASX could break above the Kumo Cloud which would be a bullish event.

XJO had a weak "buy" signal on 17 October when the Conversion Line crossed above the Base Line of the Ichimoku system.  A break above the Kumo Cloud would strengthen that signal.

Next trip looks like a test of the 200-Day MA.

Bitcoin.

Bitcoin continues to hold above the 50-Day MA and the downtrend line from mid-August.

It is now facing resistance of the Kumo Cloud.

It's recent long consolidation period does, however, appear to be ending.  Look to more upside.

Finspiration Australia. Chart Analysis for Australian and Internatinal Stock Markets.

 28/10/22.  Morning Report.

Overnight:  Mixed results in America with Tech down again.

Dow Jones +0.61%.  SP500 -0.61%.  Nasdaq -1.63%.  Small Caps +0.35%.  Banks 0.00%.

Tech stocks were affected by a plunge in Meta, down -24.6%

SP500.

SP500 has stalled at the 50-Day MA.  Watch for a test of the Supertrend Line (yellow) and the 20-Day MA.

Commodities.

Commodities Index +0.16%.  Energy +0.59%.  Base Metals -0.86%.  Agriculture -0.6%.  Gold -0.15%.

Iron Ore Futures collapsed, down -12.2%.

That's going to affect our big iron ore miners.  At 10.55 a.m., BHP is down -3.42%, Rio down -3.02% and FMG down -5.19%.

XJO down -0.5%.  Financials doing the heavy lifting, up +0.53%.

Bitcoin.

Bitcoin was down modestly overnight -0.39%.  It remains in a bullish profile.

Finspiration Australia. Chart Analysis for the Australian and International Stock Markets.

27/10/22.  Evening Report.

ASX moves higher today.

 XJO finished up +0.5% today and above the 50-Day MA.  This is looking increasingly bullish.

Seven sectors were higher today with one flat.  Energy was the stand-out, up +2.4% with Woodside up +3.2%.  The other large cap doing well today was Newcrest also up +3.2%.

Gold Miners rose +3.7% today and finished above the 50-Day MA with the 20-DMA close to a bullish cross above the 50-Day MA.

Gold Miners might finally be taken on a bullish rally.  The chart pattern is close to completing an inverse head and shoulders bottom pattern.

Finspiration Australia. Chart Analysis for Australian and International Stock Markets. + Bitcoin.

 27/10/22.  Morning Report.

Dow Jones flat, Tech down after strong intra-day selling.

Dow Jones +0.01%.  SP500 -0.74%.  Nasdaq -2.04%.  Small Caps +0.35%.  Banks +0.41%.

META plunged -19% in after-market trading which doesn't augur well for the Nasdaq tonight.

SP500.

SP500 ran into resistance of the 50-Day MA.  Expect a pull-back to the 20-Day MA or the Supertrend Line (7,1.5).

Commodities.

Commodities Index +1.87%.  Energy +2.33%.  Base Metals +3.37%.  Agriculture -0.4%.  Gold +0.64%.

Those good Energy and Metals prices should keep the ASX alive today.

After one hour of trading this morning, XJO up +0.46%.

Bitcoin.

Bitcoin rallied +2.3% overnight adding to the previous gains.  This is looking good for further upside.

Finspiration Australia. Chart Analysis for Australian and International Stock Markets.

 26/10/22.  Evening report.

Post Budget - ASX remains steady.

XJO was up just +0.18%.

The biggest influence on our market day was, not the budget, but reports from stocks both in Australia and overseas.

If anything, the budget was a positive for the share market with fiscal sobriety to the fore.

Overseas last night, the U.S. market was up strongly but aftermarket moves by Alphabet and Microsoft (both down) ameliorated the positive impetus of the U.S. overnight results.  A further drag on our market today was a poor report from Coles which also affected Woolworths, both down about -3%.

Another drag on our market was Medibank Private which suffered from a privacy hack, down -18%.

All the big banks, however, rose moderately which helped to stabilise the ASX.

Eight out of eleven sectors were up today, with one flat - Info Tech (XIJ).  The stand-out performer today was Property (XPJ) up +2.5%.

Tonight in America, META, Facebook's parent, announces results.  That again could be market moving.

Finspiration Australia. Chart Analysis for Australian and International Stock Markets + Bitcoin

 26/10/22.  Morning Report.

American stocks continue to rise.  Alphabet and Microsoft reported after hours.

SP500 +1.07%.  SP500 +1.63%.  Nasdaq +2.25%.  Small Caps +2.32%.  Banks +1.73%.

Alphabet and Microsoft reported after hours and the market responded poorly.  Those closing figures above overstate the current position.

SP500.

SP500 is now testing the 50-Day MA as resistance.  It may now pull back to test the 20-Day MA as support.  

The index is now between a rock and a hard place - Wait.

Commodities.

Commodities Index +0.56%.  Energy +0.87%.  Base Metals -0.44%.  Agriculture -0.3%.  Gold +0.23%.

After 20 minutes of trading, XJO is up +0.4%.  Coles reported before the market opened and is now down -2.53% - taking WOW down with it.  WOW now down -1.4%.  

Bitcoin.

Bitcoin had a sharp rise last night.  It is now above the 50-Day MA and the Supertrend Line has turned bullish.  A cross-over of the 20-DMA above the 50-DMA would provide a "silver cross" - that's a solid medium-term go long signal.