Finspiration Australia. Chart Analysis for Australian and International Stock Markets. +BITCOIN.

 24/9/22.  Overnight in America.  Stocks fall again.  "How low can you go?"

Dow Jones -1.62%.  SP500 -1.72%.  Nasdaq -1.8%.  Small Caps -2.23%.  Banks -1.97%.

SP500.

SP500 is now extremely oversold with an RSI at 28.9.  Rarely does a major index show such a low reading without bouncing to the upside.  Of course, oversold can always go more oversold, so don't jump the gun.  A more by Stochastic back above the oversold zone (below 20) would be a "get set" signal.

The risk to the upside is now much better than the risk to the downside.  Traders will do well here.

Any move to the upside will likely be sold into.

Below is a six-month chart for SP500:

I've added this chart because we can see that SP500 is now down, more or less, to the June low.  That's an important support level.  Give the extremely oversold nature of SP500, that reinforces the idea that the Index is poised for a move to the upside.

Commodities.

Commodities had huge falls last night.  Commodities Index -3.39%.  Energy -4.09%.  Base Metals -2.58%.  Agriculture -1.94%.  Gold -1.73%.

Commodities are generally very oversold with RSIs down in the low 30s.  Look for a rebound in the next few days.

Yesterday in Australia.

XJO fell heavily on Friday -1.87%.  RSI is at 34.58, so not as oversold as SP500, but that could change on Monday.

The Index is opposite a congestion zone from July which might offer support.  If America does revert to the upside, we should follow suit.

Bitcoin.

In week-end trading, Bitcoin is up +1.73%,  but the chart remains in bearish territory.

Positive divergences on indicators suggest that Bitcoin could stage a counter-trend rally.  Nimble traders could benefit from such a move.

Finspiration Australia. Chart Analysis for Australian and International Stock Markets + BITCOIN

 23/9/22.  Overnight in America, stocks ease down again after FOMC.

Dow Jones -0.36%.  SP500 -0.84%.  Nasdaq -1.37%.  Small Caps -2.1%.  Banks -2.48%.

10-Yr Treasuries rose to an 11-year high of 3.71%.

SP500.

SP500 remains in its down-trend.  

RSI is very oversold at 32.06, which raises the possibility of a trend reversal.  First sign would be a move by Stochastic out of its oversold zone, going above 20.  The market can remain oversold for much longer than expected, so don't jump the gun.

Using WD Gann principles, I have a turn date of 26/9/22 which is Monday.  Don't expect precision with these calculations, but they're usually not far out - so expect a reversal to the upside in the next few days.

Commodities.

Commodities Index suffered intra-day selling but managed a rise of +0.28%.  Energy flat +0.04%.  Base Metals +0.59%.  Agriculture flat +0.05%.  Gold flat -0.06%.

Iron Ore managed a small rise, +0.2%.  

To start the day, ASX is down heavily.  XJO -1.2%.

BITCOIN.

Bitcoin is currently up about +0.6% but remains bearish.

Indicators are showing positive divergences, so the chance of a counter-trend rally remains possible.

Traders could make good money here, but don't expect any rally to last for too long.

Finspiration Australia. Chart Analysis for Australian and International Stock Markets + BITCOIN.

 22/9/22.  Overnight in America, Fed announces interest rate rise, stocks fall.

Dow Jones -1.7%.  SP500 -1.71%.  Nasdaq -1.79%.  Small Caps -1.14%.  Banks -2.12%.

As expected, the Fed raised its key interest rate by 75 basis points, i.e, three-quarters of a percent.  The mood of the market changed as Fed Head Powell spoke about the meeting's deliberations.  Forty minutes after the IR announcement, SP500 was in positive territory, but a sharp slide in the last hour of trading saw the Index fall sharply.

SP500.

SP500 is now down to the lower end of the congestion zone seen at the left-hand side of the chart.

RSI is oversold at 33.74 and Stochastic remains in its oversold zone.

Watch for a trend reversal.  First sign would be a rise by Stochastic out of its oversold zone.

Commodities.

Commodities Index -0.6%.  Energy -0.46%.  Base Metals -1.4%.  Agriculture -0.57%.  Gold +0.46%.

The Australian market is closed today for the National Day of Mourning.

IG runs a synthetic market for Australia in lieu of the ASX - it is currently down -1.13%.

BITCOIN.

Bitcoin is currently down -2.6%, which is a new low.

That no doubt is a reaction to the Fed's interest rate rise.  Since Bitcoin provides no direct revenue it's not surprising that traders/investors are switching out of Bitcoin into other more enticing assets - e.g, cash which can earn interest.

That fall also puts a big question mark over my idea that this consolidation represented accumulation rather than distribution.

The crypto remains oversold so I'm not ruling out a counter-trend rally.  A return to a bull market?  That is looking less and less likely with more interest rates on the way.

Finspiration Australia. Chart Analysis for Australian and International Stock Markets.

 21/9/22.  XJO down heavily today.

XJO down today -1.56%.

Well, that wasn't very nice.  Yesterday the market gave us a short-term bullish signal, and today it took that off the table with a bearish engulfing candle.

hmm.  Looks to me like our masters are putting the bejesus up us.

Down today, up tomorrow?

Who knows?

The XJO remains primed for a move to the upside with Stochastic down in the oversold zone.

Some indicators have positive divergences.  Just look at CCI.

We have the Federal Reserve announcement on interest rates - about 2.30 a.m. Oz time.

I'm expecting that to result in a move to the upside as the current probable interest rate rise is already built into prices.

Finspiration Australia. Chart Analysis for Australian and International Stock Markets + BITCOIN

21/9/22.  Overnight in America, stocks slip ahead of Fed announcement.

 Dow Jones -1.01%.  SP500 -1.13%.  Nasdaq -0.95%.  Small Caps -1.24%.  Banks -1.5%.

European stocks were down for the sixth day straight.  STOXX 600 -1.1%.

SP500.

 

SP500 remains bearish but consolidating at its lows.  It is poised for an upside move with the Stochastic down in the oversold zone.  

The expected interest rate rise which will be announced tonight (Oz time) has likely been priced into the market.  The last three rises saw the SP500 go to the upside after the announcement, so there seems no reason to believe that the same will happen tonight.

Commodities.

Commodities Index -0.12%.  Energy -0.96%.  Base Metals -0.37%.  Agriculture +1.32%.  Gold -0.57%.

After 5 minutes of trading, XJO has followed the U.S. to the down side.  XJO -0.6%.  It will probably see some more downside before we get a bounce.

BITCOIN.

Bitcoin has continued to slide on a closing basis but remains above Monday's low.

It is difficult to see a non-revenue producing asset like Bitcoin to turn bullish in an era of rising interest rates, but the "whales" that control the Bitcoin price may have other ideas.

The current long-term consolidation in Bitcoin still looks to me like Accumulation rather than Distribution, but we have to see BTC get above the mid-August high to feel sure about that idea.

Finspiration Australia. Chart Analysis for Australian and International Stock Markets + BITCOIN.

 20/9/22.  ASX up strongly today.

XJO up today +1.29%.  That comes off horizontal resistance, so we could have a few more days on the upside.

There's a little bit of optimism in the air ahead of the Federal Reserve announcement.  The Fed has a two-day meeting starting tonight (Oz time), so we have to wait another day for their decision.

Nine sectors were up today, and 71% of stocks in the XJO finished in positive territory.  That's a good result for the day.

The best sector today was Materials (XMJ) up +2.7%.  Next best was Energy (XEJ) +2%.  So resources were the backbone of the market today.

Financials (XJJ) lined up with the market +1.3%.

We probably won't see a lot of movement now until the Fed announces its interest rate decision.

Inspiration Australia. Chart Analysis for Australian and International Stock Markets + BITCOIN.

 20/9/22.    Overnight in America.  Stocks snap four-day losing streak.

Dow Jones +0.64%.  SP500 +0.69%.  Nasdaq +0.76%.  Small Caps +1.02%.  Banks +1.13%.

European STOXX600 lost -0.1% after being down about -1% for most of the day.  That's quite a reversal day - bullish.

SP500.

After a "hanging man" candle on Friday, and a bullish engulfing candle on Monday, this looks promising for the short-term.  But plenty of resistance remains overhead.  This may provide an opportunity to "sell the rip".

Commodities.

The Commodities Index underwent a huge intra-day reversal under the pressure from Energy.  The Index started well down in negative territory but finished positive on the day

Commodities Index +0.32%.  Energy +0.71%.  Base Metals -0.47%.  Agriculture flat 0.00%.  Gold flat +0.08%.

Iron Ore -0.4%.  Thermal Coal flat 0.00%.

ASX should see a much better day today.

BITCOIN

Bitcoin is currently up +0.18% after registering a "hanging man" candle on Monday.  That was also a 52-day low.

The crypto remains in a sideways consolidation.

Yesterday's action adds some more evidence to my idea that the current consolidation is a Wyckoff Accumulation.  Monday's action looks like a Wyckoff spring.  We still need more evidence to complete the evidence.

A detailed description of Wyckoff stages can be found here.

An idealised accumulation phase is shown in this diagram.

Don't be concerned if a particular chart in practice doesn't follow strictly to the ups and downs in this idealised chart.  So long as the particular chart more or less follows, then it probably is an Accumulation phase.

In the Bitcoin case I would now be looking for a break above the mid-August high to establish a bullish mark-up phase.