Finspiration Australia. Chart Analysis for Australian and International Stock Markets + BITCOIN

 15/9/22.  XJO up modestly today.

Not much joy in that chart, although XJO did rise +0.21%

Today's candle is a narrow range candle.  It has respected the resistance of the lower edge of the Kumo Cloud.

This appears to be a consolidation at the lows of the previous day's plunge.  That suggests we'll see more downside.

Finspiration Australia. Chart Analysis for Australian and International Stock Markets +BITCOIN

 15/9/22.  Overnight in America, choppy trading with modest gains in major indices.

Dow Jones +0.1%.  SP500 +0.34%.  Nasdaq +0.74%.  Small Caps -0.02%.  Banks -0.5%.

SP500.

SP500 is consolidating at the lows of yesterday's plunge.  It is finding support at horizontal support and the lower edge of the Kumo Cloud.  We could see more consolidation around this level.

Short term, SPX is bearish with the Supertrend Line switching over to blue.

Commodities.

Commodities Index +0.43%.  Energy +0.52%.  Base Metals -0.31%.  Agriculture -0.63%.  Gold -0.38%.

Iron Ore -1.6%.  Thermal Coal +1.1%.

After twenty minutes of trading on the ASX, the XJO is up +0.3%.

BITCOIN

Bitcoin remains bearish and will remain so while it is below the Kumo Cloud.

It is in a long term sideways consolidation - unusual for this Crypto-currency,

Finspiration Australia. Chart Analysis for Australian and International Stock Markets + BITCOIN

14/9/22.  Overnight:  Big downside reversal in America.

 Dow Jones -3.94%.  SP500 -4.32%.  Nasdaq -5.16%.  Small Caps -3.87%.  Banks -3.93%.

SP500.

I was expecting a pause here because of dual resistance (horizontal resistance and Base Line of the Ichimoku system).  Instead the market has bad a big downside reversal.  Selling was unrelenting through-out the day.

SP500 has now reverted to a down trend after four days to the upside. Supertrend Line has switched from yellow to blue (bearish).

It is now facing support of the Kumo Cloud and horizontal support.  We might see some churning here as there is a big congestion zone to the left of the chart from June and July this year.

Commodities.

Commodities Index -0.51%.  Energy -0.2%.  Base Metals -0.68%.  Agriculture -0.62%.  Gold -1.3%.

Iron Ore +0.5%.  Thermal Coal +0.4%.

Overnight Oz Futures -2.2%.  

After 25 minutes of treading, XJO is down -2.75%,

BITCOIN.

Bitcoin was flat overnight +0.09%, but remains in its bear market.

Until the chart can get back above the Kumo Cloud and the 200-Day MA, consider any rally to be a counter-trend rally.

Finspiration Australia. Chart Analysis for Australian and International Stock Markets + BITCOIN

 13/9/22.  ASX up for fourth day in a row.

XJO up today +0.65%.

This has been a strong four-day advance by the XJO.

It is currently not overbought, so we can expect more upside movement.

Finspiration Australia. Chart Analysis for Australian and International Stock Markets.

 13/9/22.  Overnight in America, stocks continue to run higher for fourth day.

Dow Jones +0.71%.  SP500 +1.05%.  Nasdaq +1.27%.  Small Caps +1.28%.  Banks +0.83%.

European stocks also rose strongly, with European STOXX 600 up +1.8%.

SP500.

Short-term, SP500 continues to be bullish, but now facing some resistance from a congestion zone to its left and the Base Line of the Ichimoku system.  Expect some consolidation here.

Commodities.

Commodities Index +1.38%.  Energy +1.47%.  Base Metals +1.05%.  Agriculture +0.69%.  Gold +0.51%.

Iron Ore -0.6%.  Thermal Coal +0.5%.

Overnight Oz Futures +0.7%.  

Expect another solid day for the ASX today on the back of higher overseas stocks and commodities.

BITCOIN.

Since early June, 2022, Bitcoin has been in a long sideways consolidation within a longer down trend.

It remains below the Kumo Cloud and well below its 200-Day MA.  Until resistance of those two indicators, it is best to consider any rally to be a counter-trend rally in an ongoing bear market.

Finspiration Australia. Chart Analysis for Australian and International Stock Markets.

 12/9/22.  XJO up strongly today, +1.02%.

The ASX has had three days to the upside.  Indicators are no where near overbought, so we should see more upside.

Three days up is often a sign we'll see some consolidation, but there's not reason to suspect that we'll see more upside in the short-term.

       Weekly Wrap - Week ending 9 September, 2022.

XJO Monthly Chart.

We have only had a little over a week's action in the new month of September.  The monthly chart does, however, let us see the long term picture for the XJO.

Both Supertrend Lines remain blue (bearish).  The chart remains below the 8-Month EMA which is heading downward, i.e. bearish.  Hull MA13 is headed down - bearish.

The XJO found support at the 50-Month EMA where it also found support back at the end of 2018.  The chart seems likely to head down for another test of the 50-MEMA.

In the very very long-term, XJO found support after its bear market of 2020 at the 200-Month EMA.  That looks like the support which might avoid a catastrophic fall for the XJO.

Weekly Chart.

XJO was up this week, +0.96%, but still a long way from erasing the previous week's big fall of -3.87%.  The chart remains bearish.

XJO found resistance at the 50-Week MA.  Two Supertrend lines have turned blue - bearish.  Hull MA13 has turned down - bearish.

The Weekly Chart is in sync with the Monthly Chart - both Bearish.

Daily Chart.

XJO had a strong bullish reversal day on Thursday and we saw carry-through buying on Friday. That switched the two Supertrend Lines to yellow - bullish.  Hull MA13 has turned up - bullish.  Friday's action brought the XJO just above the 50-Day MA and 8-Day EMA.  Expect more upside until we hit some other significant resistance.  The next congestion zone is around 6980.  After that is the 200-Day MA.  The long term trend remains in doubt while the chart is under the 200-Day MA.

The Daily Chart is out of sync with the Weekly and Monthly Charts.  That supports the view that we will see more upside in the short-term, but selling will probably put a stop to the rally sometime at significant resistance.

SP500 Daily.

SP500 has had three days to the upside, our market has had two days to the upside.  So our market will probably have a third day up on Monday.  

Sector Strengths by RSI.

RSI (Relative Strength Index) is calculated using the default setting of 14 days - almost three weeks of trading.  It provides a more reliable guide to changes in sectors than the one-week results which can jerk around quite a lot and, thus, RSI is probably a more reliable guide to recent strength in the sectors. (Click here for a description of RSI.)

Seven of eleven sectors have readings below 50 - that is a sign of weak breadth.

The four sectors with RSIs above 50 are Energy (XEJ, RSI 50.63), Health (XHJ, RSI 55.1) Information Technology (XIJ, RSI 54,64) and Materials (XMJ, RSI 50.93).  XMJ had a great week after recently under-performing,  XMJ up this week, +5.13%.   Financials (XXJ) was a significant drain on the market this week as that sector was down -0.88%.  

Breadth:

    1. New Highs - New Lows 

This week New Highs average 16 on a daily basis.  New Lows averaged 31.4.  That's almost a ratio of 1:2 in favour of New Lows.  Not a good look.  Another bearish sign for our market.  Until NHs can outpace NLs, long term investors should remain cautious.

    2.  Strong Stocks - Weak Stocks Cumulative.

This is a metric of my own making.  All stocks on the ASX100 are rated on seven criteria.  Stocks positive on all seven criteria are rated "Strong".  All stocks negative on all seven criteria are rated "Weak".

This week we had 9 strong stocks and 10 weak stocks.  That's more or less even pegging.

Cumulatively:

This chart remains below its Five-Week MA, which is a bearish reading.  This is a reasonable guide for medium term traders.

% of Stocks above key moving averages.

1.  % of stocks above 10-Day Moving Average: Last Week 21%, This Week 54%.

2.  % of stocks above 50-Day Moving Average, Last Week 21%, This Week 41%.

3.  % of stocks above 200-Day Moving Average, Last Week 31%, This Week 31%

Momentum on two metrics improved this week.  But breadth in the long term remains bearish.

I'd like to see all of these above 50% to feel comfortable about the longer term bull market. 

Conclusion.

1.  Monthly and Weekly Charts are bearish, but the Daily Chart is out of sync - short-term bullish.  Expect the current rally to be sold into.

2.  Breadth hasn't been good. While Financials stay weak, there's not a lot of hope for a return to a bull market.  

3.  XHJ, XIJ, XMJ and XEJ have strongest momentum.  Look to strong stocks in those sectors.  Do your own research on stocks in those Sectors.  

4.  Historically, September is the worst month of the year, so any rebound will probably be sold into.

5.  RBA interest rate announcement occurred on Tuesday.  The market expectations were met, so the announcement didn't have a lot of effect, one way or the other.

Stay safe.