Finspiration Australia. Chart Analysis of the Australian and International Stock Markets.

7/6/22.  XJO down heavily today after Ozzie Reserve Bank hiked rates by more than expected, up 0.5%.

XJO down -1.53%.  All sectors were down.  The worst affected were the interest rate sensitive sectors Information Technology and Real Estate, both down -3%.

Advances-Declines Line remains bearish.

This remains bearish.  Stay defensive until we see definite improve in this instrument.
 

Finspiration Australia. Chart Analysis of Australian and International Stock Markets

7/6/22.  Yesterday in Australia.

 XJO down yesterday -0.45%.  It is consolidating at the top of a short-term up-trend, above both the Tenkan Sen (Conversion Line) and Kijun Sen (Base Line).  But, it remains below the Ichimoku Cloud - long-term bearish.  We need to see which way this breaks from the consolidation.  Support remains at 7181.

Overnight in America.

Modest rises overnight in America.

Dow Jones +0.05%.  SP500 +0.31%.  Nasdaq +0.4%.  Small Caps +0.64%.  Banks +0.39%.

SP500.

Last night's action in the SP500 was indecisive and the Index remains consolidating at the top of a short-term up-trend.  Wait.

Commodities.

Commodities +0.44%.  Energy +0.31%.  Base Metals -0.35%.  Agriculture +1.33%.  Gold -0.44%.

After 50 minutes of trading this morning, XJO is down -0.7% and below horizontal support.  It is currently at 7150.  The market is coming into the 11.00 a.m. turn period.  Until now it has been falling steeply.  One of two things will now probably happen, either a rebound to the upside, or consolidation at the lows.  I doubt we'll see more downside.

     Weekly Wrap - Week ending 3 June, 2022.

XJO Monthly Chart.

XJO is only three days into a new month (June).

The monthly chart remains range bound 6970-7630.  

The chart is  is essentially sideways as indicated by the two flat Supertrend lines, one above and one below the monthly candles.  

The MACD Histogram also indicates a flat or sideways market, with the Histograms almost non-existent for the past four months - hugging the zero line.

Weekly Chart.

XJO was positive this week, +0.78%.  This is its third week in a row to the upside.

The chart is range bound, in concert with the monthly chart.  

Medium term, the chart remains bearish..  Hull MA13 is blue (bearish); two Supertrend lines are blue (bearish) and the chart is just below the 8-Week EMA (bearish).  RSI and CCI are below their mid-lines (bearish). MACD Histogram is flat - non-trending.

The chart is, however, rising from the lower edge of the range

The chart shows a trading range in round figures from 7630 to 6930.  This week XJO finished at 7239.  

Daily Chart.

The daily chart is in a three-week up-trend, and has broken upside on the Donchian Channel.

Both Supertrend Lines are bullish, Hull MA13 is bullish; Chart is above the 8-DEMA which is bullish.

All of that looks hunky-dory, except - it all might just be a counter-trend rally.  Looming just above are the 50-DMA, 200-DMA and horizontal resistance, all three lined up together.  

To prove its bullish condition, the chart has to surpass those three resistance levels.  Maybe in the coming week?

(Many successful trading strategies use the 200-DMA as a filter.  Take long entries only if the instrument is above the 200-DMA, take short entries only if the instrument is below the 200-DMA.)

Sector Changes - past week.

This chart shows the performance of each sector (plus Gold Miners, XJO, BEAR and IAF) over the past week.  

The Market is relatively well balanced, with five sectors up, two flat and four down.  Resources (Materials XMJ +3.83%. Energy XEJ +3.96%) were largely responsible for the positive ASX return this week.  They remain the two sectors best placed for long trades.

Financials (XXJ -1.3%) is the biggest sector in the market and a major drain on the performance of the XJO this week.

New Highs - New Lows Cumulative.

This is one of the important breadth indicators.  Unless breadth is solidly positive, the market is always under threat.

NH-NL Cumulative continues to fall and is now well under its 10-Day Moving Average, that's a big red danger sign for long-term investors.  

ASX Advance-Decline Line.

This is another important indicator of breadth.

Like NH-NL Cum, ASX Advance-Decline Line is also bearish, but not quite as bleak as NH-NL Cum.

It is, however,  below its 10-DMA and its 20-DMA.  

% of Stocks above key moving averages.

1.  % of stocks above 10-Day Moving Average: Last Week 52%, This Week 53%.

2.  % of stocks above 50-Day Moving Average, Last Week 30%, This Week 31%.

3.  % of stocks above 200-Day Moving Average, Last Week 37%, This Week 38%

This is another indicator of weak breadth.  Despite the rise in the XJO the %age of stocks above key Moving Averages was relatively flat.

Weak breadth is often a leading indicator for falls in the market.

We need to see each of these parameters above 50% to feel comfortable about the XJO.

Conclusion.

1.  Monthly, Weekly Charts are non-trending - Daily Chart is in a medium term (15-Day) up-trend.  We need to see all three Charts in sync.

2..  Breadth is poor, so the most likely direction is down.  If breadth continues to be poor, we can expect a break down from the ranges, and a continuation of the bear market.  Perhaps not this week, but its not far off.

3.  50/200 DMAs are almost connected - that's stiff resistance.  Any rise is likely to be short-term when the XJO hits dual resistance of those two major MAs.

Finspiration Australia. Chart Analysis of Australian and International Stock Markets.

 4/6/22.  Yesterday in Australia.

XJO had a strong day, up +0.88% erasing the loss of the previous day.

The index remains in its upscoping Standard Error Channel and between horizontal support of 7106 and horizontal resistance of 7300.  Just above that is the 200-Day SMA at 7316.  XJO finished yesterday at 7239.  Dual resistance is usual difficult to overcome specially when one of those is the 200-DSMA.

Overnight in America.

The American market finished the week on a losing note.

Dow Jones -1.05%.  SP500 -1.63%.  Nasdaq -2.47%.  Small Caps -0.91%.  Banks -1.41%.

SP500.

SP500 also remains in its up-sloping Standard Error Channel and consolidating in a tight range between 4089 and 4170.  SP500 finished at 4178.

The recent low was formed on 20/5/22.  The candle on that day had a long lower tail and looks to me like a Wyckoffian "Spring" which usually suggests the end of a major down-trend.  

Nothing ever goes in a straight line, so we can expect some to-and-froing with the next move to the down-side, shaking out some hopeful bulls before the next major move to the upside.  We shall see.

Commodities.

Commodities Index +0.95% was pushed up by Energy +1.94%.  Base Metals down heavily -1.95%.  Agriculture also down -0.95%.  Gold -1.02%

None of the overnight results looks promising for the Australian market on Monday.

New York Advances-Declines Line.

NY A-D Line is in an uptrend, coincident with the SP500.

It gave early warning of a change to the SPX downtrend with a positive divergence occurring 11-20 May while the SP500 was still down-trending.  Hopefully, it will give us a negative divergence before any change to a down-trend of the SP500.

Finspiration Australia. Chart Analysis for Australian and International Stock Markets.

3/6/22.  Overnight.

U.S. Equities broke a two-day losing streak.

 Dow Jones +1.33%.  SP500 +1.84%.  Nasdaq +2.69%.  Small Caps +1.91%.  Banks +1.52%.

SP500.

SP500 is in a short-term up-trend and into a congestion zone from late-April/earlyMay.  Progress might be turgid now for a few days.  A test of the under-side of the Ichimoku Cloud is a possibility.

Commodities.

Commodities Index +2.28%.  Energy +2.23%.  Base Metals +4.19%.  Agriculture +0.5%.  Gold +1.23%.

Iron Ore +5.1%.  Thermal Coal +0.1%.

Overnight Oz Futures up +1%.  I wouldn't be surprised XJO does better than that given the overnight figures in equities and commodities.

Finspiration Australia. Chart Analysis for Australian and International Stock Markets.

 2/6/22.  XJO fell today -0.8%.

XJO remains in a short-term upsloping channel, which suggests the next move will be up.

If it remains in the channel, then a test of the all-important 200-DEMA is likely in the next few days.

Internals remain weak, with NewHighs-NewLows continuing to fall.

The current environment is not a positive one for long-term investors.

Finspiration Australia. Chart Analysis for Australian and International Stock Markets.

Overnight.

Dow Jones -0.54%.  SP500 -0.75%.   Nasdaq -0.72%.  Small Caps -0.33%.  Banks -1.97%.

SP500.

SP500 is consolidating at the top of a short-term up-trend.

The Index overall remains bearish.  Until we can see a decisive move above the Ichimoku Cloud.  Stay defensive.

Commodities.

Commodities Index +0.49%.  Energy +1.73%.  Base Metals -1.39%.  Agriculture -0.09%.  Gold +0.64%.

Iron Ore +0.2%.

The ASX has started well down at the opening, after 30 minutes it is down -1.1%.