Finspiration Australia. Chart Analysis for Australian and International Stock Markets.

 12/5/22.   Overnight.

No reprieve for the bulls.  Bear market continues on down.

Dow Jones -1.02%.  SP500 -1.85%.  Nasdaq -3.18%.  Small Caps -1.68%.  Banks -1.78%.

SP500.

SP500 remains in a steep down-trending channel.  Until it breaks to the upside of that channel, it's no use for the bulls to expect a counter-trend rally.

Any green shoots?  Yes - a couple.  Volume has eased off a little in the last couple of days, and CCI is showing a positive divergence.  But - wait, until we see firm evidence of a move to the upside.

Commodities.

Some reprieve for Commodities last night, with DBC (+2.46%) bouncing off its 50-Day MA.  Energy +3.19%.  Base Metals +1.89%.  Agriculture +1.82%.  Gold +0.82%.

Iron Ore +3%.  Thermal Coal +2.2%.

Those Commodity prices and IO price hold promise for resources and agricultural stocks today in Australia.

Overnight Oz Futures are down -0.5% - not as bad as the U.S. would suggest.

Finspiration Australia. Chart Analysis of the Australian and International Stock Markets.

 11/5/22.  XJO up modestly today +0.19%.

 The Index saw plenty of intra-day buying today, after being well down at around 11.00 a.m.  From that low, the market put on about 70 points - a remarkable turnaround.

Horizontal support at 6980 has now held for two days in a row.

Today's action produced an "inside day".  That's still an indecisive action - but the hold at horizontal support suggests we will see more upside.

Best sector today was Health (XHJ +1.74%).  Financials (XXJ -1.06%) was the worst performer.  That was offset to some degree by a healthy rise in Materials (XMJ +0.9%).  Six sectors were up while five were down.  That's in line with the modest rise in the XJO.

Europe and the U.S. are currently showing positive signs of life, so we could be at the start of a counter-trend rally.  Just don't think this is the bottom.

Finspiration Australia. Chart Analysis of Australian and International Stock Markets.

 11/5/22.  Overnight.

Mixed results in New York.

Dow Jones -0.26%.  SP500 +0.25%.  Nasdaq +0.98%.  Small Caps -0.63%.  Banks -1.48%.

SP500.

SP500 was up modestly in choppy trade.  It is oversold on the RSI and a positive divergence is showing on the CCI.  We might get a short-term rally.  This is still a case of "sell-the-rally".

Commodities.

Commodities Index -0.59%.  Energy -1.34%.  Base Metals -0.64%.  Agriculture +0.7%.  Gold -0.84%.

Commodities Index is down to the 50-Day MA, so we might see a rebound here.

Iron Ore -1.3%.

XJO has opened flat this morning.  We'll probably have choppy trading today - following the U.S.

Finspiration Australia. Chart Analysis of the Australian and International Stock Markets.

 10/5/22.  XJO down -0.97%.

Today's fall is a sharp decline but ignores the intra-day activity.

XJO hit an important horizontal support level today and bounced up +1.6%.

That's a significant bounce off horizontal support.

We can expect more upside in the short-term.

That takes nothing away from my idea that we are in a bear market which will have further to fall.

We will get significant bounces but they should provide times when you can sell-the-rallies.

Finspiration Australia. Chart Analysis for Australian and International Markets.

 Possible Supports for this Bear Market, SP500.

Using principles developed by W.D. Gann, I've projected into the future possible support levels for a bear market in SP500.  First support level is at 3500, Second support level at 3055.  SP500 is at 3991, say 4000 in round numbers.

So, SP500 could fall another 500 points or 12.5% before we reach the first major level of support.

For the XJO:

XJO might fall about -15% from its current level to its first major support level at 6015. It is currently at 7120.

Finspiration Australia. Chart Analysis for Australian and International Markets.

 10/5/22.  Overnight.

Dow Jones -1.99%.  SP500 -3.2%.  Nasdaq -4.29%.  Small Caps +2.84%.  Banks -1.9%.

Indices down for the third day in a row - and new one-year lows.

The only bright sport (a very dim bright spot) in the American sectors was Consumer Staples which was flat, down just -0.04%.

It is difficult to imagine a more difficult environment for stocks than the current one:  war in Europe, slowing Chinese economy with covid lock-downs, possibility of recession in America, an aggressive Federal reserve and high inflation readings.

SP500.

Last might might have been a climax selling event with the Index down >3% and volume at its highest in at least the last 500 trading days.  That's about two years.  (I haven't looked back more than 500 days.) 

Positive divergences on CCI and Stochastic suggest the possibility of a bounce in the near future.

Commodities.

Commodities plunged last night along with stocks.  Commodities Index -4.52%.  Energy -5.57%.  Base Metals -2.96%.  Agriculture -2.34%.  Gold -1.45%.

Iron Ore -4.7%.

After 10 minutes of trading, XJO is down -1.55%.

Finspiration Australia. Chart Analysis of the Australian and International Stock markets.

 XJO down today -1.18%.

Short term indicators are all bearish.

XJO is so oversold, it could see a bounce to the upside.

The Index is now opposite a major congestion zone.  So we could see consolidation here or a move to the upside given the oversold nature of the market.  RSI14 is at 35 which is oversold.  Of course, it can go lower, but given the support at this level, the probabilities lie to the upside. 

A bounce in the U.S. tonight would be short-term bullish for our market.