Finspiration Australia. Objective technical analysis of the Australian and International stock markets.

 12/4/22.  Overnight, U.S. stocks fall.

Dow Jones -1.19%.  SP500 -1.69%.  Nasdaq -2.18%.  Small Caps -0.61%.  Banks -0.01%.

The bond market continues to wreak havoc in stocks.  10Yr T Note rose to a 3 1/4 year high at 2.79%.  That particularly hurts growth and tech stocks - not so much banks.

SP500.

Sp500 fell heavily overnight and below major supports of the 200 Day MA (black line) and the top of the Ichimoku Cloud.  It is now down to support of the 50-Day MA (blue line) and the Base Line (Kijun Sen) of the Ichimoku system.  It is also at horizontal support of the highs back in early March.

After such a big fall last night we could see upside tomorrow but not enough, probably, to offset the current bearish trend.  We'll need to see a couple of upside days to break the down trend.

Commodities.

Commodities Index -0.82%.  Energy -1.31%.  Base Metals -1.7%.  Gold +0.5%.

Iron Ore -1.5%

Australian Energy and Mining stocks will probably be under pressure today.

Overnight Oz Futures -0.4%.

Yesterday in Australia, the XJO suffered a reversal day which often suggests more downside.  Today looks certain to produce more downside - not a good scenario for the near-term future of our market.

Finspiration Australia. XJO finishes flat today. 11/4/22.

 XJO finished marginally up today +0.1% after being up +0.6% in early trading.  That's a disappointing result.

Today represents a reversal day.  That's bearish, but needs confirmation of a down day tomorrow.

Short-term, XJO is in a down-trend and finished today below the 8-Day EMA and the Hull MA13.

Two out of three Supertrends are blue - one remains yellow, which suggests in the medium term XJO is not trending.  A bearish break by the third Supertrend would give us a medium term sell signal.

Finspiration Australia. Weekly Wrap, week ended 8/4/22

          XJO down this week.  

XJO Monthly Chart.

March was a good month for the XJO, up +6.39%.   April has begun with a consolidation period, down just -0.29%.  8-Month EMA and Hull MA13 have both turned bullish.  It's early days in the month of April, so we need more time to see if this bullish bias can hold for the rest of the month.

Weekly Chart.

XJO was negative this week, -0.21%. That's the first negative week after three weeks up in a row. 

The chart, however, is remains bullish.  It has moved above the 8-Week EMA, Supertrend (1.5/7)  Hull Moving Average remain bullish.  Any pull-back is likely to be bought.

Daily Chart.

This week, XJO weakened with the 8-Day EMA, Supertrend (1.5/17) and Hull MA13 all turning short-term bearish.

Using multiple time-frame analysis, Monthly and Weekly XJO remain bullish.  Daily XJO has turned bearish.  Wait for all three to be in sync before adding more money to this market.

Relative Strength of Sectors - past 52 days.

This chart compares the performance of each sector against the performance of the XJO.  Sectors above zero have outperformed the XJO over the past 52 days.  Sectors below zero have underperformed XJO over the past 52 days.

As a general rule, look for stocks in the best sectors and avoid stocks in the worst sectors.  For example, look to Utilities (XUJ), Energy (XEJ) and Materials (XMJ) for stocks to buy.  Avoid Consumer Discretionary (XDJ), Telecommunications (XTJ) and Health (XHJ).  (Exceptions to that general rule could occur.)  

New Highs - New Lows Cumulative.

NH-NL Cumulative this week returned to its 10-Day Moving Average, a break below would send a big caution signal to long-term investors.

Bonds versus Stocks.

At the end of the week, Stocks had a clear advantage over Bonds.  The relativity has weakened a little with the chart now below its 20-Day MA.  The chart is only a little below its recent high, which was the best its been since late November, 2020.  Extremes like this are often contrarian signals.  

Conclusion.

after three weeks of strong gains, the XJO pulled back a little this week, with the daily chart now short-term bearish.  The weekly and daily charts remain positive.  Wait for the three time scales to come back into sync.

Traders should concentrate on the strongest sectors:  Utilities, Materials and Energy.

Finspiration Australia. Mixed results overnight in the U.S. Industrials up, Tech down. 9/4/22.

 XJO yesterday.

XJO is in a short-term pull-back with both Hull MA13 and Supertrend (1.5/7) turning to blue (bearish.

On Thursday, XJO fell below the first line of horizontal support and the 8-Day EMA, but Friday saw it climb back above both of those levels.  This remains indecisive, another day to the upside is needed to confirm the end of the pull-back.

Overnight.

Dow Jones +0.4%.  SP500 -0.27%.  Nasdaq -1.34%.  Small Caps -0.6%.  Banks +0.81%.

SP500.

SP500 is in a short-term pull-back with three chart indicators into bearish space: Hull MA13, Supertrend (1.5/7) and 8-Day EMA.

The index sits precariously on the 200-Day MA which is often taken as the dividing line between a bearish and bullish market.

This could go either way.  Wait.

Commodities.

Commodities Index +1.25%.  Energy +1.16%.  Base Metals +0.62%.  Gold +0.63%.

Those commodity prices are positive for our energy and mining stocks on Monday.

NY ADVANCES-DECLINES LINE.

NY A-D Line is back below both its 10-Day and 20-Day MAs.  That's in line with the current pull-back in the SP500.  Wait for a move to the upside.

Finspiration Australia. Major U.S. indices rebound after two days of losses.

 Overnight.

Dow Jones +0.25%.  SP500 +0.43%.  Nasdaq +0.06%.  Small Caps -0.08%.  Banks -0.7%.

Indices were well down in early after-noon trading, but markets rebound to erase early losses.

SP500.

SP500 remains sitting on support of the 200-Day MA and the upper line of the "Cloud".

We need to see further upside to presume the pull-back is over.

Commodities.

Commodities Index +0.34%.  Energy +0.6%.  Base Metals -1%.  Gold +0.38%.

Iron Ore -2.1%.  Thermal Coal -1.7%.

Overnight Oz Futures +0.5%.

XJO should have a better day today, but those metals prices might put a cap on the miners.

Finspiration Australia. XJO down for second day.

 XJO down today -0.63%.

Today, XJO broke below both the Supertrend (1.5/7) and the Tenkan Sen.  Both of those are short-term sell signals.

Today three sectors were up.  Real Estate +0.12%, Utilities +0.12%, Consumer Staples +0.55%.  All of those are defensive sectors.

The sector most vulnerable to interest rate rises is the Information Technology Sector (XIJ), down today -3.42%.

I'm expecting more downside, but the 200-Day MA might provide support.

Finspiration Australia. Major U.S. Indices fall to 20-Day MA.

 Overnight.

Dow Jones -0.42%.  SP500 -0.97%.  Nasdaq -2.22%.  Small Caps -1.16%.  Banks -1.36%.

Today's action in the major indices saw gap down openings, leaving big island reversal patterns.

SP500.

SP500 chart is now showing two short-term sell signals.  It is below the Tenkan Sen (Conversion Line) and the Supertrend (1.5/7) has switched from bullish to bearish.

The index finished marginally below the 200-Day MA and, as noted above, is down to support of the 20-Day MA (not shown on this chart).  The Index is sitting on the top line of the "Cloud" so this could provide support.

Commodities.

Commodities Index -0.79%.  Energy -1.36%.  Base Metals -0.31%.  Gold +0.23%.

Iron Ore -1.4%.

None of the above looks positive for the Australian market today.  XJO after 40 minutes of trading is down -0.6%.  Every sector except Consumer Staples is currently negative.