Finspiration Australia. Resource stocks pounded. 15/3/22

 XJO down today -0.73%.

XJO remains within its recent trading range where it's been since late February.

Today's candle is "in the Ichimoku Cloud" which is a "don't trade" zone.

XJO could go either way, but it has so much overhead resistance, the line of least resistance is to the downside.

Resources were hit today.  Energy (XEJ) down -2.9%.  Materials (XMJ) down -3.7% after iron ore fell heavily.

On the upside was Financials (XXJ) +1%.  XXJ is the biggest sector in the ASX and that saved the market from some dramatic falls today.

Also rising to the upside was Telecoms (XTJ) up +0.7%.

Breadth today was poor.  Advances/Declines = 422/963.  New Highs/NewLows = 11/87

Until these two charts get above their moving averages - stay defensive.

Finspiration Australia. Dow flat, Nasdaq down 15/3/22.

 Overnight.

Dow Jones flat 0.00%.  SP500 -0.74%.  Nasdaq +2.04%.  Small Caps -1.17%.  Banks +1.73%.

SP500.

SP500 is back down to the lower edge of its trading range.  Medium and long term, the index is bearish.

The index has experienced a "death cross" with the 50-Day MA crossing below the 200-Day MA.  It's not always an accurate guide to a bear market beginning, but it should continue to make investors take a defensive stance.

Commodities.

Commodities Index -2.93%.  Energy -4.25%.  Base Metals -3.31%.  Gold -1.51%.

Iron Ore -6.2%.

After 15 minutes of trading, the XJO is down about 60 points, or -0.8%.  That's not surprising given the overnight results from America for stocks and commodities.  Resources are leading the drop to the downside, but Financials (XXJ) up about +1%.

Finspiration Australia. ASX up strongly in today's trading. 14/3/22.

 XJO up +1.21% today.  XJO rose strongly in the first half-hour of trading and then slid sideways for the rest of the day.

XJO remains within its trading range but at the top end of that range.  It wouldn't take much to push it up into the next range.

Breadth today was disappointing.  Advance 719, Declines 714.  Virtually line ball.

New Highs/NewLows were negative.  New Highs 30, New Lows 66.

Until NH-NL Cum rises above its 10-Day MA, stay defensive.

The big movers in sectors today were Financials +2.5%.  Health +2.2%.  XXJ (Financials) is benefitted from an expected increase in interest rates.  That might sound contradictory, but rising interest rates allow Banks to increase their interest rate margins.

XXJ is in a short-term upside movement within a longer term trading range.  We need to see more evidence that this is a sustainable bullish move.

Finspiration Australia. Weekly Wrap. Sunday 13/3/

       XJO was down this week - it remains bearish.

XJO Monthly Chart.

 

XJO has been in a down-trend since September, 2021 as indicated by the Hull MA 13 (blue dashes)     

In January, the monthly chart gave a long-term sell signal on both the Supertrend (1.5/7) and the 8-Month EMA.  January was brutal for the XJO.  A long standing adage of stock market pundits is:  As goes January, so goes the year.

Now, after the second week of March, the March candle remains below the 8-Month EMA and below the Supertrend.   

I'd like to see the Hull Moving Average turn positive (blue dashes change to yellow dashes) before taking buy action.  For long-term investors - stay defensive.

Weekly Chart.

XJO was negative this week, -0.66%.   It remains below the 8-Week EMA, the 50-Week MA and Supertrend (1.5,7).  The Hull Moving Average remains negative (blue dashes).  

Stay defensive.

Daily Chart.

XJO remains in a short-term trading range.  Even if it breaks up out of that range that only moves into another trading range.  Plenty of overhead resistance for the XJO to overcome.

It's not inconceivable for the XJO to take off in a big spurt higher - signs of a peace settlement in Ukraine would be helpful.  Less aggressive action than expected by the Federal Reserve would also be helpful.  A combination of those two events could see a strong up move helped by short-covering.  (Maybe I'm smoking hopium.)

Sector changes this week.

Only two sectors were up this week, Financial (XXJ) +2.2% and Consumer Staples (XSJ) +0.28%.

The outsized gains from the previous week ended in Energy (XEJ -0.56%) and Materials (XMJ -3.44%). Materials was the worst performer this week

The War in Ukraine continues to do wonders for Gold, up this week >6%.

New Highs - New Lows Cumulative.

NH-NL Cumulative this week remains clearly below its 10-Day Moving Average.  Until we see a decisive move back above the 10-Day MA, it is best to stay defensive.  This is a good indicator for long-term investors.

Weakness in the NH-NL Cum is confirmed by my weekly Strong-Weak Stocks Cumulative chart.  It remains below its 5-Week Moving Average.

S-W Cum tends to act a little earlier than NH-NL Cum, but NH-NL Cum has an advantage in being compiled on daily data rather than weekly data.

Advances-Declines Cumulative.

The dashed line in the above chart is the 20-Day Moving Average.  It shows a distinct down-trend.  Until this down-trend ends, stay defensive.

Bonds versus Stocks.

At the end of the week, Bonds had a slight advantage over Stocks, but there wasn't much in it.  

Remember that this is a relativity chart.  Both can be going down but one may be going down less than the other.  In this case, Bonds were going down less than Stocks.  Not a lot of joy in that for anybody.  

Stocks above key moving averages - last week and this week.

A look at the number of stocks in the ASX100 above key moving averages provides an idea of how bad thins are.

ASX100 stocks above 10-Day MA:  Last week 38%.  This week 41%.

ASX100 stocks above 50-Day MA: Last week 37%.  This week 35%.

ASX100 stocks above the 200-Day MA: Last week 37%.  This week 37%.

Until we see all of these above 50%, it's best to assume we are in bearish conditions.

Conclusion.

Measures of breadth all indicate bearish conditions.  XJO remains in medium and long term down trends.  Short term, XJO is consolidating.

While internal measures of breadth remain weak, stay defensive.  

Good luck and good investing.

Finspiration Australia. World markets mixed. ASX down. Europe up. America down. 12/3/22.

 Yesterday in Australia.

XJO down-0.94% on Friday.  It remains in its consolidation zone.

The path of least resistance is to the downside.

Overnight.

Dow Jones -0.69%.  SP500 -1.3%.  Nasdaq -2.18%.  Small Caps -1.15%.  Banks -1.11%.

All eleven U.S. Sectors were down.

German DAX +1.38%.  French CAC +0.85%.  U.K. FTSE +0.8%.  Europe STOXX600 +0.95%.

SP500

SP500 remains in a short-term consolidation.  The path of least resistance is to the down side.

NYAD Cumulative.

New York Advances-Declines is often a good leading indicator.  The current correction from early Jan. in SP500 was preceded by a negative divergence in A-D Cum from Nov. to Jan.  

NY A-D Cumulative remains in a strong down-trend.  Until we see improvement in NY A-D Cum it is unlikely we'll see an improvement in SP500.

Commodities.

Commodities Index +1.72%.  Energy +2.6%.  Base Metals +0.44%.  Gold -0.7%.

Those improvements in Energy and Base Metals could give a lift to the Oz market on Monday.

Finspiration Australia. Overnight U.S. markets fell. 11/3/21.

Overnight. 

Dow Jones -0.34%.  SP500 -0.43%.  Nasdaq -0.95%.  Small Caps -0.13%.  Banks -1.14%.

SP500.

SP500 has pulled back a little after yesterday's big rise.  That's probably a result of exhaustion and "smart money" trying to shake "weak hands" out of the market after they entered yesterday.  Wednesday's "kicker" candle was a strong indication that SP500 is at the start of a short-term move to the upside.

But, strong resistance remains overhead.  Until that is overcome - long-term investors might stay their hands until thi markets becomes bullish.

Commodities.

Commodities Index -1.2%.  Energy -1.81%.  Base Metals +2.34%.  Gold +0.31%.

Iron Ore down -0.8%.

After 40 minutes of trading this morning, XJO is up modestly +0.3%.  That's largely due to the miners with Materials up +1.44%. Commodities fell largely under the pressure of further falls in Oil.  Energy appears to be finding support at the 20-Day MA, so we might see a rebound here.

Finspiration Australia. XJO up strongly today. 10/3/22.

 XJO up today +1.1%.

The index remains in its sideways consolidation and continues to have strong overhead resistance.

Action today was potentially bullish as we saw lots of switching out of previously strong sectors boosted by the war in Ukraine (Energy -2.5%) and Materials -1.8%) and into sectors less affected by the Ukraine War: Financials +2.8%, Information Technology +3.3%, Industrials +2.7% and Property +2.5%.

The fall in Materials (XMJ) was exaggerated by RIO going ex-dividend.  RIO was down -7.7% but ~6% of that fall can be attributed to the ex-dividend effect.  

MYR (Myer) was a stand-out today, surging +24.4%.  That is a reversal of its down-trend which started in September 2021.