Finspiration Australia. Weekly Wrap. Sunday 13/3/

       XJO was down this week - it remains bearish.

XJO Monthly Chart.

 

XJO has been in a down-trend since September, 2021 as indicated by the Hull MA 13 (blue dashes)     

In January, the monthly chart gave a long-term sell signal on both the Supertrend (1.5/7) and the 8-Month EMA.  January was brutal for the XJO.  A long standing adage of stock market pundits is:  As goes January, so goes the year.

Now, after the second week of March, the March candle remains below the 8-Month EMA and below the Supertrend.   

I'd like to see the Hull Moving Average turn positive (blue dashes change to yellow dashes) before taking buy action.  For long-term investors - stay defensive.

Weekly Chart.

XJO was negative this week, -0.66%.   It remains below the 8-Week EMA, the 50-Week MA and Supertrend (1.5,7).  The Hull Moving Average remains negative (blue dashes).  

Stay defensive.

Daily Chart.

XJO remains in a short-term trading range.  Even if it breaks up out of that range that only moves into another trading range.  Plenty of overhead resistance for the XJO to overcome.

It's not inconceivable for the XJO to take off in a big spurt higher - signs of a peace settlement in Ukraine would be helpful.  Less aggressive action than expected by the Federal Reserve would also be helpful.  A combination of those two events could see a strong up move helped by short-covering.  (Maybe I'm smoking hopium.)

Sector changes this week.

Only two sectors were up this week, Financial (XXJ) +2.2% and Consumer Staples (XSJ) +0.28%.

The outsized gains from the previous week ended in Energy (XEJ -0.56%) and Materials (XMJ -3.44%). Materials was the worst performer this week

The War in Ukraine continues to do wonders for Gold, up this week >6%.

New Highs - New Lows Cumulative.

NH-NL Cumulative this week remains clearly below its 10-Day Moving Average.  Until we see a decisive move back above the 10-Day MA, it is best to stay defensive.  This is a good indicator for long-term investors.

Weakness in the NH-NL Cum is confirmed by my weekly Strong-Weak Stocks Cumulative chart.  It remains below its 5-Week Moving Average.

S-W Cum tends to act a little earlier than NH-NL Cum, but NH-NL Cum has an advantage in being compiled on daily data rather than weekly data.

Advances-Declines Cumulative.

The dashed line in the above chart is the 20-Day Moving Average.  It shows a distinct down-trend.  Until this down-trend ends, stay defensive.

Bonds versus Stocks.

At the end of the week, Bonds had a slight advantage over Stocks, but there wasn't much in it.  

Remember that this is a relativity chart.  Both can be going down but one may be going down less than the other.  In this case, Bonds were going down less than Stocks.  Not a lot of joy in that for anybody.  

Stocks above key moving averages - last week and this week.

A look at the number of stocks in the ASX100 above key moving averages provides an idea of how bad thins are.

ASX100 stocks above 10-Day MA:  Last week 38%.  This week 41%.

ASX100 stocks above 50-Day MA: Last week 37%.  This week 35%.

ASX100 stocks above the 200-Day MA: Last week 37%.  This week 37%.

Until we see all of these above 50%, it's best to assume we are in bearish conditions.

Conclusion.

Measures of breadth all indicate bearish conditions.  XJO remains in medium and long term down trends.  Short term, XJO is consolidating.

While internal measures of breadth remain weak, stay defensive.  

Good luck and good investing.

Finspiration Australia. World markets mixed. ASX down. Europe up. America down. 12/3/22.

 Yesterday in Australia.

XJO down-0.94% on Friday.  It remains in its consolidation zone.

The path of least resistance is to the downside.

Overnight.

Dow Jones -0.69%.  SP500 -1.3%.  Nasdaq -2.18%.  Small Caps -1.15%.  Banks -1.11%.

All eleven U.S. Sectors were down.

German DAX +1.38%.  French CAC +0.85%.  U.K. FTSE +0.8%.  Europe STOXX600 +0.95%.

SP500

SP500 remains in a short-term consolidation.  The path of least resistance is to the down side.

NYAD Cumulative.

New York Advances-Declines is often a good leading indicator.  The current correction from early Jan. in SP500 was preceded by a negative divergence in A-D Cum from Nov. to Jan.  

NY A-D Cumulative remains in a strong down-trend.  Until we see improvement in NY A-D Cum it is unlikely we'll see an improvement in SP500.

Commodities.

Commodities Index +1.72%.  Energy +2.6%.  Base Metals +0.44%.  Gold -0.7%.

Those improvements in Energy and Base Metals could give a lift to the Oz market on Monday.

Finspiration Australia. Overnight U.S. markets fell. 11/3/21.

Overnight. 

Dow Jones -0.34%.  SP500 -0.43%.  Nasdaq -0.95%.  Small Caps -0.13%.  Banks -1.14%.

SP500.

SP500 has pulled back a little after yesterday's big rise.  That's probably a result of exhaustion and "smart money" trying to shake "weak hands" out of the market after they entered yesterday.  Wednesday's "kicker" candle was a strong indication that SP500 is at the start of a short-term move to the upside.

But, strong resistance remains overhead.  Until that is overcome - long-term investors might stay their hands until thi markets becomes bullish.

Commodities.

Commodities Index -1.2%.  Energy -1.81%.  Base Metals +2.34%.  Gold +0.31%.

Iron Ore down -0.8%.

After 40 minutes of trading this morning, XJO is up modestly +0.3%.  That's largely due to the miners with Materials up +1.44%. Commodities fell largely under the pressure of further falls in Oil.  Energy appears to be finding support at the 20-Day MA, so we might see a rebound here.

Finspiration Australia. XJO up strongly today. 10/3/22.

 XJO up today +1.1%.

The index remains in its sideways consolidation and continues to have strong overhead resistance.

Action today was potentially bullish as we saw lots of switching out of previously strong sectors boosted by the war in Ukraine (Energy -2.5%) and Materials -1.8%) and into sectors less affected by the Ukraine War: Financials +2.8%, Information Technology +3.3%, Industrials +2.7% and Property +2.5%.

The fall in Materials (XMJ) was exaggerated by RIO going ex-dividend.  RIO was down -7.7% but ~6% of that fall can be attributed to the ex-dividend effect.  

MYR (Myer) was a stand-out today, surging +24.4%.  That is a reversal of its down-trend which started in September 2021.

Finspiration Australia. Overnight - Commodities down, stocks up.

 Overnight.

Dow Jones +2%.  SP500 +2.57%.  Nasdaq +3.59%.  Small Caps +2.11%.  Banks +4.15%.

SP500. 

Yesterday's "tombstone'' candlestick suggesting the end of the pull-back played out today with a big upside move.  Expect a test of the most recent high at 4417.  SP500 finished at 4278 today.

Commodities.

The exponential rise in Commodities is over.  What normally happens after a big fall like this is we get a bounce and the "crowd" believes that the charts will go back up to new highs.  But the rug is pulled from under their feet by the "smart money" and you get a lot of trapped bulls, who must then sell as quickly as possible to avoid further losses, accelerating the downside move.

Commodities Index -7.94%.  Energy -11.2%.  Base Metals -8.37%.  Gold -2.97%.

I said recently that this rise would end badly - last night was just plain ugly.

Iron Ore -2.9%.

After 90 minutes of trading today, XJO up about +1%.  Energy and Materials have slumped, but Financials and Information Technology are doing exceptionally well.

Finspiration Australia. XJO up strongly today. 9/3/22.

 XJO up +1.04%.

Today's candle is a bullish engulfing candle which indicates more upside in the near term.

It is clear that XJO is in an indecisive sideways consolidation.  Until it breaks out above overhead resistance, it is best to consider any upside moves as counter-trend rallies.

We did see some bullish rotation today into recently less attractive sectors.  Financials (XXJ) up +1.53%.  Communication Services (XTJ) up +2.42%.  Information Technology (XIJ) up +3.19%.  Consumer Discretionary (XDJ) up +1.82%.

The recent darlings of the market haven't done relatively so well.  Energy +0.14%.  Materials +0.53%.  Those are positive figures but not nearly as good as the other figures above.

That augurs well if this trend continues.

Finspiration Australia. Nasdaq near to bear market territory.

 Overnight.

Dow Jones -0.56%.  SP500 -0.72%.  Nasdaq -0.28%.  Small Caps +0.38%.  Banks +0.63%.

SP500.

SP500 remains in bearish mode.  Last night's candle (tombstone) could signal the end of the current short-term downside movement.  We need to see an upside move in the next session to confirm.

Commodities.

Commodities Index +1.7% continues higher under pressure from Energy +2.98% affected by the ongoing war in Ukraine.  Base Metals had plenty of intra-day buying, down -0.22%.  Gold (safe haven) continued higher also, + 2.74%.

One day, suddenly, we'll see Energy and Gold reverse sharply.

Iron Ore -0.3%.

XJO started in negative territory this morning, but, after one hour of trading, is up about +0.7%.  That augurs well for the U.S. tonight.