Finspiration Australia. U.S. up strongly for second day.

 Yesterday in Australia.

XJO finished up just +0.1% yesterday.  It now needs to play catch-up after the SP500 was up >2% last night.  That suggests we could see an opening up on Monday of ~2%.  Events in Ukraine will still dominate the news, but the market now seems to be shrugging off the negativity present in the media. 

Overnight.

Dow Jones +2.51%.  SP500 +2.24%.  Nasdaq +1.64%.  Small Caps +2.23%.  Banks +4%.

SP500    

Positive divergence on the CCI has once again pointed to a reversal to the upside in the SP500.

Conditions overall remain bearish.  I'll consider this to be a counter-trend rally while bearish conditions remain.  But - enjoy the upside move while it happens.

Next Federal Reserve meeting is 15-16 March.  A little over two weeks away.  That could be the next big test for markets.

Commodities.

Commodities Index -1.51%.  Energy -1.21%.  Base Metals +0.04%.  Gold -0.33%.

VIX.

VIX (aka Fear Index) has fallen the past two days but remains elevated at 27.59.  It needs to fall below 20 to indicate a return to bullish conditions.

Finspiration Australia. Snap-back rally in the U.S.

 Overnight.

Dow Jones +0.28%.  SP500 +1.5%.  Nasdaq +3.34%.  Small Caps +1.72%. Banks -2.12%.

Nasdaq performed an extra-ordinary feat last night, down about -3% at the opening it finished up >3%.

SP500.

SP500 staged a great rebound last night but remains below major resistance at 4300 (round figures).

The may well be the start of a counter-trend rally, but overall bearish conditions remain.  I'll assume this is nothing more than a counter-trend rally until we see bullish conditions prevail.

Commodities.

Commodities saw a big upside opening bid but sold off during the session.  Commodities Index +0.42%.  Energy +0.29%.  Base Metals +1.81%.  Gold -0.65%.

Iron Ore -0.8%.

We should be positive today but I'm not expecting anything of the magnitude of the Nasdaq.

Finspiration Australia. ASX tumbles.

XJO fell heavily today -2.99%.  

 

At this stage, we just have to hold on and see where this ends.  XJO seems destined to reach the January low.

Today's result was magnified by ex-dividend stocks today.  BHP, the biggest stock in the ASX, fell -6.9% and WPL down -2.7%.  That was actually less than the general market fall, so a good result on the day for WPL.

Travel related stocks performed poorly today after issuing their reports.  Qantas down -5% and Flight Centre down -10.1%.  

Cimic was the surprise result after a take-over offer was announced.  Cimic up +33.4%.

European markets are all well down at this stage.  So there's not a lot of hope yet for a rebound.

Finspiration Australia. U.S. markets continue to slide.

 Overnight.

Dow Jones +1.38%.  SP500 -1.84%.  Nasdaq -2.57%.  Small Caps -1.46%.  Banks -2,52%.

SP500.

SP500 remains bearish on all time frames.

It is now down to the major support level of the January lows.  This becomes a crucial test for the SP500.

Commodities.

Commodities Index +0.94%.  Energy +1.48%.  Base Metals -0.79%.  Gold +0.45%.

Iron Ore +1%.

After 35 minutes of trading, XJO is down 140 points or -1.9%.

BHP went ex-dividend today.  It is the largest stock in the ASX, so that has exaggerated the fall in the XJO today.

Finspiration Australia. XJO rose today.

XJO up today +0.62%

This chart is about as ambiguous as it can be.

The current consolidation is sitting about mid-range of the recent downside movement.

It bounced today off a major horizontal support level.

It remains below the 50 and 200 Day MAs which are in close proximity.

It remains below the Supertrend 1.5,7.

This can go either way.  A break above the 50 & 200 Day MAs should see a solid move to the upside.

The ASX remains in the midst of reporting season.  Reports from major stocks were mixed today.

WOW up +1.4% after reporting an 8% increase in revenue.

Domino's Pizza slumped -14%.

WiseTech Global was up +4.3%.

Overseas markets are generally positive, shrugging off the Ukraine/Russia problem.

Germany currently up more than +1%.

U.K. currently up about +0.6%.

 

Finspiration Australia. Dow Jones falls to a four-week low.

 Overnight.

Dow Jones -1.42%.  SP500 -1.01%.  Nasdaq -1.23%.  Small Caps -1.45%.  Banks -0.14%.

SP500.

Conditions remain bearish on all time frames for the SP500.  

The index is approaching the January lows, we may get some indication around that zone if we are going to get a counter-trend rally.

Commodities.

Commodities Index +1.42%.  Energy +0.95%.  Base Metals +0.42%.  Gold +0.21%.

Energy seems close to exhaustion after gapping up at the opening then selling off intra-day.

Iron Ore -1.6%.

The Australian market opened flat this morning, then oscillated around the zero mark.  In the last few minutes (11.00 a.m. Summer time) it shot up to be up +0.24%.  That's looking promising for further rises.

Finspiration Australia. XJO finished lower today.

 There was no morning report today as we were hamstrung by an internet connection problem.  That has now been resolved.

XJO down heavily today -1%.

XJO has broken below the Supertrend (1.5,7) which is a negative.

It hasn't broken below the 20-Day MA and some intra-day buying is seen in today's candle.

Today in the Australian market, breadth was weak. Advances 289 Declines 1298.  A/D Ratio 0.22.   

This could have been a lot worse if the Ukraine situation is seen as a catalyst for a bear market.  

But, really, today's action wasn't too bad in the scheme of things.  (Think Iraq's invasion of Kuwait.)

There's no doubt that the Ukraine events are bearish, but today's action suggests that they will be absorbed.

It may depend on the Kremlin's next move.  Putin seems to be adopting an incremental strategy where Ukraine is concerned.  He annexed Crimea, now he's sending "peacekeeping troops" into Donbas.

He's a great chess player.  

But ... what's the next move?  Will he focus next on an overwhelming power-play to engulf Ukraine?

  Probably not.  This seems to be following the same game plan which occurred in Georgia in 2008-9.  Take over part of the country and that deters any action by the targeted state to move out of the Russian sphere of influence.