Finspiration Australia

 Sat. 8/1/22.  U.S. stocks lose ground.

Yesterday in Australia.

XJO up +1.29%

The past seven days have seen extreme volatility with XJO breaking above and below major support/resistance at 7471.  On Friday, XJO finished at 7454, just below that key horizontal marker.

Thursday's extreme downside move suggests we could be in for more downside.

Overnight in America:

Dow Jones -0.01%.  SP500 -0.41%.  Nasdaq -0.96%.  Small Caps -1.11%.  Banks +1.6%

SP500.

Although SP500 lost ground it is continuing to hold at the 50-Day Moving Average.  The bias is, however, to the downside.  This could go either way.

Commodities.

Commodities Index +0.19%.  Energy 0.00%.  Base Metals -0.18%.  Gold +0.46%.

Junk Bonds.

Junk Bonds often give an insight into the sentiment of traders.  Risk-on - Junk Bonds rise.  Risk-off - Junk Bonds fall.  JNK is clearly giving signs of a Risk-Off environment.

Finspiration Australia

 Fri. a.m. 7/1/22.  US stocks lose ground.

Overnight.

Dow Jones -0.47%.  SP500 -0.1%.  Nasdaq -0.13%.  Small Caps +0.65%.  Banks +3.25%.

SP500.

Sp500 fell back to the 50-Day MA and opposite a congestion zone.  We'll probably get a bounce to the upside here.

Commodities,

Commodities Index +0.86%.  Energy +1.88%.  Base Metals +0.85%.  Gold -1.22%.

Iron Ore +2.3%.

After an hour of trading the XJO is up +1.4%,

Finspiration Australia

 Thu. p.m. 6/1/22.  Ozzie stocks dumped.

XJO down heavily today -2.74%.

We rarely see falls as big as this on the Australian stock market.  Today's fall is the largest seen in at least the past 200 days.  Something significant has occurred in the minds of our masters who control our market.

Having said that, we will, no doubt, be up tomorrow.  But don't expect any miracles.  A chance to sell out?  Probably.

No sector was immune today.  The best performing sector, relatively, was Materials (XMJ) -1.45%.  It held up because of the rise in iron ore prices overnight.  BHP +0.12%.  RIO +0.73%.  But FMG fell -1.05%

Finspiration Australia

 Thu, a.m. 6/1/22.  End of the Santa Rally.

Overnight:

Dow Jones -1.07%.  SP500 -1.94%.  Nasdaq -3.34%.  Small Caps -2.47%.  Banks -1.08%.

SP500.

SP500 is back to a major support level so we may see some consolidation here.   

Commodities.

Commodities Index -0.43%.  Energy -0.23%.  Base Metals 0.00%.  Gold -0.3%.

Iron Ore +2%.

After 30 minutes of trading this morning, XJO is down -0.9%.

Finspiration Australia.

 Wed. p.m. 5/1/22.  XJO falls modestly after Tuesday big rise.

XJO down -0.32%.

I'm no Elliott Wave Specialist, but a cursory glance at the pattern from 2 December suggests we're looking at a classic five wave impulse patter:  1 - Up, 2 - down, 3 - up, 4 - down, 5 up.  That's usually followed by a three wave corrective pattern.

Here's an idealised chart:

Maybe this all just technical analysis witch-doctors.  If it has any validity - then we might be in for a pull-back.

Statistically, the Santa Rally continues until the second trading day in January.  So we could be close to the end.

For a long time, I've pencilled in 6 January as a possible start of a pull-back for the market - just based on previous experience.

Let's continue to watch the charts and see how this pans out.

Finspiration Australia

 Wed. a.m. 5/1/22.  Mixed results in U.S.

Dow - new record.  SP500 flat.  Nasdaq down.  Banks Whooshka.  Bond yields higher.

Dow Jones +0.59%.  SP500 -0.06%.  Nasdaq -1.33%.  Small Caps +0.65%.  Banks 3.39%.

US 20Yr Treasuries Yield +5.67%.  That's what sank the Nasdaq which is sensitive to interest rates - and gave the Banks such a boost.

SP500.

SP500 is in a short-term sideways consolidation.  The medium-term trend remains up.

Hull 13MA has turned down which suggests the next move will be to the downside.  Plenty of support remains on the downside, so this may be a buy the dip scenario.

Commodities.

Commodities Index +1.2%.  Energy +1.09%.  Base Metals +1.36%.  Gold +0.74%. 

Iron Ore +2.8%.

Overnight Oz Futures -0.3%.

Expect a weak opening after yesterday's huge rise in the XJO.

 Tue. p.m. 4/1/22.  XJO - Whooshka.

XJO was up today an extraordinary +2%, so it definitely deserves a "Whoosha" label.  We rarely see +2% rises on the XJO, but it happened today on the first day of trading 2022.

 Clearly, today was an extraordinary event, helped by low volumes, it is easy to push the index around.

Technically, I've marked in grey a major support zone, so it wasn't unpredictable that we would see an up move today, but the sheer scale of the up move is extra-ordinary. 

Expect some downside tomorrow.