Wed. a.m. 22/12/21.  U.S. rebounds strongly.

Dow Jones +1.6%.  SP500 +1.78%.  Nasdaq +2.4%.  Small Caps +2.94%.  Banks +2.65%.

SP500.

The two-day candle-stick pattern is a kicker pattern, a very strong pattern, which, coming at the end of a down-trend almost invariably signals the end of the down-trend.  The short-term trend is now up - stay with the trend.

Commodities.

Commodities Index +2.11%.  Energy +2.86%.  Base Metals +2.5%.  Gold -0.04%.

Iron Ore +0.5%.

Overnight Oz Futures +0.15%.

We should have a positive day today, but we were up strongly yesterday - pre-empting the rise in America.  So, our XJO may not have a very strong day today despite the American strength.

 Tue. p.m. 21/12/21.  XJO up strongly today.

When the U.S. falls and we start on a positive note, we usually have a bullish day.  That's what happened today.  SP500 down overnight -1.14% but XJO up +0.3% after 15 minutes.  XJO finished up +0.86%.

 That's a great looking daily candle on the chart, but it doesn't change much.  The down-trend line from 8 Dec. hasn't been broken to the upside, and the chart remains within its wide trading range.

Like the indecisive chart above, the NewHighs-NewLows Cumulative chart remains in a sideways trend:

This chart usually trends strongly one way or the other.  I wouldn't be tempted to enter new large positions until we see a more definitive trend to the upside.

 Tue. a.m. 21/12/21.  U.S. stocks fall again.

Dow Jones -1.23%.  SP500 -1.14%.  Nasdaq -1.24%.  Small Caps -1.51%.  Banks -2.16%.

SP500.

From 7 December, SP500 has been in a choppy sideways range.  Last night it found support at the 50-Day Moving Average, so the odds are good for a bounce to the upside.

Commodities.

Commodities Index -0.7%.  Energy -1.04%.  Base Metals -0.8%.  Golds -0.42%.

Iron Ore +4.2%.

Overnight Oz Futures +0.1%.

After 20 minutes of trading today, XJO is up +0.3%.  

Mon. 20/12/21.  XJO fell today in choppy trading.

XJO down a little -0.16%.

XJO remains within its trading range.  

Today saw a lot of intra-day buying which resulted in the XJO bouncing off the 200-Day MA and the lower edge of the trading range.

That's promising - but we need to see a break above the trading range to be confident of a medium term bullish trend.

If we get an up day tomorrow - that would be a positive for our market.

At this stage in proceedings overseas, that is looking unlikely.  Germany is currently down more than -2.85%.  UK down -2.14%.  Dow Futures are down -1.67%.

   Weekly Wrap, Week ended 17/12/21.  XJO rises from crucial level

XJO Monthly Chart:

XJO peaked in August, 2021.  It has since fallen September-November, but is now resuming its bullish trend in December.  This is important as it is moving up from a crucial long-term level - the 8-Month Exponential Moving Average.  December tends to be a seasonally bullish month for the market, so we may see more upside.

XJO Weekly Chart:

The weekly XJO Chart shows a decline this week of  -0.67%.  

The chart shows a wide trading range which switched the weekly trend from up to sideways.  A break above 7479 should be bullish.  A break below the 50-Week Moving Average (blue, curving line) would be bearish.

Currently, this week's candle is in the middle of the trading range.  This could go either way.

Daily XJO chart:

This week, XJO had two up days, two down days and one flat, but the down days overwhelmed the up days by -0.67%.

Given poor results in the U.S. on Friday night, we can expect a down day on Monday for our market.  That could see a test of the crucial 200-Day Moving Average.

One Week Sector Changes:

This week saw four sectors up, one flat (Energy) and six sectors down.  Health (XHJ) was the biggest loser, down -6.47%.  That was partly due to a big fall in CSL on Thursday when it was down -8.16%.  But some other stocks in XHJ also fell heavily.  For the week, COH - 3.72%, RMD -5.13%, RHC -3.61%, FPH 2.89%.

The best two performing sectors were Materials (XMJ) +2.33% and Property (XPJ) +2.25%.  Utilities (XUJ continues its recent good performance, up this week +1.4%.

NewHighs-NewLows Cumulative.

For long-term investors, this is one of the most important charts to watch.

The Cum NH-NL is now sitting above its 10-Day Moving Average after a small rise this week.  The chart is, however, trending sideways.  Wait.

The Strong-Weak Stocks Chart fell this week, providing a dis-confirmation of the Cum NH-NL.  We need to see congruence in those two charts to feel confident of direction 

Stocks in the ASX100 above the 200-Day MA.

% of stocks in the ASX100 above the 200-Day MA fell this week from 60% to 53%%.  That keeps it above the bearish level of 50%, but within comfortable striking distance of a bearish reading.

Cum Advances-Declines.

Cumulative Advances-Declines was up marginally this week, but remains in a bearish trend below its 10-Day Moving Average.

Conclusion: The XJO has been in a sideways trend for about three months.  The past week has not changed that situation.  Breadth Indicators (NH-NL, AD-DC, Stocks above 200-Day MA) are indecisive.  Wait.

We're coming into a seasonally favourable period - the fabled "Santa Rally" may be upon us this week.  The Santa Rally refers to an historically significant rise occurring in the last week of December and the first two days of January

It's important, however, to trade what you see not what you think.  Put ideas about "Santa Rally" to one side and watch the charts.  

 Sat. 18/12/21.  U.S. stocks fall for 2nd day.

Overnight:

Dow Jones -1.48%.  SP500 -1.03%.  Nasdaq -0.07%.  Small Caps +0.32%.  Banks -2.83%.

Options Expired on Friday, which may have had an effect on closing prices today.  

SP500:

Short-term trend is sideways, and in danger of breaking to the downside.  It currently has plenty of support:  Kijun-Sen, Supertrend and 50-Day MA, so I expect SP500 to bounce here after two days of downside action.

Commodities:

Commodities Index is in a sideways consolidation.  Dow today -1.18%.  Energy -2.01%.  Base Metals -0.23%.  Gold -0.21%.

Yesterday in Australia:

XJO was up a little +0.11% on Friday.  It remains within its trading range where it's been since September.

There's not much point in taking a position until it breaks out of this trading range.

 Fri. a.m. 17/12/21.  U.S. Stock fall led down by Tech.

Overnight:

Dow Jones -0.08%.  SP500 -0.87%.  Nasdaq -2.47%.  Small Caps -1.63%.  Banks +0.11%.

Sp500:

SP500 is struggling to rise above horizontal resistance and set a new closing high.  The trend remains bullish - stay with the trend.

Commodities

Commodities Index +0.6%.  Energy +0.5%.  Base Metals +2.15%.  Gold +1.21%.

Iron Ore +4.6%.

Overnight Oz Futures +0.1%.

After 30 minutes of trading, XJO is once again defying the results from the U.S. overnight and is currently up  more than +0.4%.