Fri. a.m. 5/11/21.  More records for SP500 and Nasdaq.

Overnight:

Dow Jones -0.09%.  SP500 +0.42%.  Nasdaq +0.81%.  Small Caps -0.21%.  Banks -1.98%.

SP500:

The SPX shows no change to its technical picture.  The trend remains up, but the Index is very overbought on both the RSI and MFI.  Negative divergences on the CCI and MACD Histogram show momentum has slowed.  Momentum has to slow before the Index pulls back.

Commodities:

Commodities Index -0.62%.  Energy -0.73%.  Base Metals -2.55%.  Gold +1.13%

Iron Ore:  No change

Overnight Oz Futures: +0.3%

Looks like a moderately positive start to today's trading but with weak metals prices and weak banks overnight, don't expect a lot today.

 Thur. p.m. 4/11/21.  XJO higher today.

XJO finished up today +0.48%.

XJO is back above the 50-Day Moving Average.  Resistance now lies in the test area marked on the chart.

Stay with the up-trend until it ends.

 Thur. a.m. 4/11/21.  Another record rise for American indices.

Overnight:

Dow Jones +0.29%.  SP500 +0.65%.  Nasdaq +1.04%.  Small Caps +2.14%.  Banks +1.44%.

SP500:

SP500 is oversold on the RSI - now at 72.5.  It is very overbought on Money Flow Index - now at 91.6.  We rarely see a reading above 90 on this indicator for a major index.  More upside could occur but it is becoming more and more unlikely as time goes by.

The trend remains up.  Stay with the trend until it ends.

Commodities:

Iron Ore +3.4%. 

After 30 minutes of trading, XJO is up +0.2%.  It looks like a relatively flat day today.

Commodities Index -2.55%.  Energy -3.46%.  Base Metals flat 0.00%.  Gold -0.83%.

 Wed. p.m. 3/11/21.  XJO was up strongly today.

Above is a chart for STW, ETF for the XJO.  Sometimes we get a better idea of market action from the ETF than from the Index chart as the Index chart always starts where it left off the previous day because of the staggered start to stock trading at the beginning of the day.

Today, STW gapped up strongly at the beginning of trading erasing all the losses of the previous day. it then continued to surge higher, but intra-day selling erased most of that surge and STW only finished slightly higher than it started.  That's not a sign of confidence by the bulls.

STW finished below the 50-Day MA, below the Supertrend 1.5/7 and below the Ichimoku Cloud.  All bearish signs.

To add to that, breadth, despite the strong day's result, was poor, 697 stocks up, 722 stocks down.    We need to see an improvement in breadth before being confident that the pull-back is over.  The Federal Reserve decision tonight could be crucial.

 Wed. a.m.  3/11/21.  Fresh records in the U.S.

Yesterday in Australia:

XJO fell yesterday -0.64%.  It remains below the 50-Day Moving Average and below the Ichimoku Cloud, but is finding support at the Conversion Line of the Ichimoku set.

Support and resistance seem to be fairly well defined by the 50-Day MA and the Conversion Line.  Watch for a break-out, one way or the other.

Last night in America:

Major indices were up modestly.  Dow Jones +0.39%.  SP500 +0.37%.  Nasdaq +0.34%.  Small Caps took a breather after the big rise in the previous session, -0.17%.  Banks -0.21%.  Banks appear to be making a bear flag.

SP500:

SP500 is now overbought on RSI14.  CCI and MACD Histogram are both sloping downwards which suggests a pull-back is not far off.  Both those indicators are leading indicators.

Tonight sees an announcement by the U.S. Federal Reserve after two days of meetings.  It's generally accepted that an announcement about tapering of bond purchases will be made.  That's probably priced into the market, but subtle readings of the announcement may still be market moving.

Commodities:

Commodities Index +0.26%.  Energy +0.48%.  Base Metals -0.89%.  Gold -0.21%

Iron Ore +6.6%.

Overnight Oz Futures up strongly +1%.  That seems a bit strong given the modest rises in America and poor metals prices.  But, it is what it is.  At least we should see a very strong start to the day's trading.

 Tues. a.m. 2/11/21.  U.S. Indices post record highs.

Overnight:

Dow Jones +0.26%.  SP500 +0.18%.  Nasdaq +0.63%.  Small Caps +2.45%.  Banks +1.11%.

So far in reporting season, 82% of SP500 stocks have beaten estimates.  That's been putting plenty of shove behind U.S. stocks.

SP500:

SP500 rose slightly on Monday evening.  

RSI14 is at 69.27 - bordering on overbought.  CCI (bottom panel) is sloping down which indicates that momentum has slowed and may lead to a pull-back.  MACD Histogram is giving off the same signal.

Commodities:

Commodities Index +0.75%.  Energy +0.77%.  Base Metals -0.28%.  Gold +0.52%.

Iron Ore -3.2%.

After 15 minutes of trading, the ASX200 has followed the U.S. higher.  XJO up +0.25%.

Reserve Bank meets today.  Results could be a market moving event.

 Monday 1/11/21.  Ozzie market bounces back.

ASX200 lifted today by +0.64% after falling -1.44% on Friday.

The XJO chart has moved back up to the 50-Day MA.  I identified that as a key support/resistance level in yesterday's Weekly Wrap.  I'm expecting that to hold as resistance.  

Despite the move to the upside today, VIX did not fall.  (VIX usually reacts opposite to the stock market.) Breadth was also less than stellar, Advances 714, Declines 732. 

The big surprise today was the fall in Westpac, down -7.4%, that also impacted NAB -0.9% and ANZ flat 0.0%.  CBA rose strongly, up 1.5%.

Defensives were strong today with CSL up +2%, Cochlear up +2.4% and Telstra up +2.6%.  All of that puts something of a dampener on bullish expectations.

Let's see what tonight's action in the U.S. holds for us.