Finspiration Australia. 14/11/23. Tues. Morning Report.

Mixed Results in New York.  Energy up. NAB ex-dividend today.

Dow Jones +0.16%.  SP500 -0.08%.  Nasdaq -0.11%.  Small Caps -0.07%.  Banks -0.22%.

SP500.

 Force Index is showing a negative divergence suggesting a pull-back is coming soon.

Three out of the last six days have been doji candlesticks, while volume has been dropping.  There's not a lot of confidence in the up-trend.

The index remains well above the 50-Day MA which may provide support.  A high volume node is nearby which also may provide support.  Any pull-back is likely to be bought.  Look for a higher volume day on a positive candle to indicate that any pull-back is over.

Commodities.

 

Commodities Index +1.46%.  Energy +1.81%.  Base Metals +0.59%.  Agriculture +1.45%.  Gold +0.56%.

Those good commodity prices should give the ASX a boost today.

After ninety minutes of trading today, XJO is up +0.67%.
 

Finspiration Australia. Mon. Evening 13/11/23.

The Australian market had a disappointing day today after a strong U.S. market on Friday.  XJO -0.4%.

Chart for STW (ETF for XJO):

 STW remains in a counter-trend up-trend but beginning to roll over.  It remains above the 10-Day MA and two of the three Supertrend lines.

The chart is constrained by the 50-Day MA.  It has to get over that to assert its bullish credentials.

Point of Control (long narrow rectangle from the left hand side of the chart) remains as an inflection point for the market.  Break upwards above the 50-Day MA from the Point of Control would be very bullish.

Only one sector was up today, Utilities +0.34%.

Financials -0.52% took a hit today when the ANZ report was greeted poorly by the market.  ANZ -3.02%.  There was, however, some intra-day buying and the chart is close to a support level and remains above the 200-Day MA.  So ANZ could rise from here until it gets hit in a few days with an ex-dividend event.

Energy was the worst performing sector today -0.88%.  XEJ has been in a long down trend now since mid-October, almost a month.

European markets are up strongly in early trading.  STOXX600 up +0.74%.  Dow Futures are flat -0.09%.

Good luck.

Weekly Finspiration Report. Sunday 12/11/23.

 

In the past week, stock market returns around the world were varied, to say the least, e.g.,  XJO -0.02%.  SP500 +1.31%.  European STOXX600 -0.21%.  Japanese Nikkei +1.93%.  Not much correlation in those numbers.

STW Daily Chart (STW is an ETF which tracks the XJO)

 

This week, the ASX has been in consolidation mode.   The Chart is sitting right at the Point of Control, the price zone where the most volume has occurred, i.e., the bulls and bears are in balance at that level.  So this could go either way.

While the XJO (and STW) remain below the 200-Day MA and the Kumo Cloud, I'll presume that the index has been in a counter trend rally.

Volume has been dropping this week, so there hasn't been enough power to force the Index higher.

Indicators, except for volume based ones, remain bullish, so another upside impulse move could be in the offing if volume picks up.

SP500 Daily

 SP500 had a great day on Friday, up +1.56%, completely reversing the Powell inspired drop on Thursday of -0.81%.

That should flow on to Australia on Monday.  Friday night Oz Futures were up +0.34.

Before getting too excited about Friday's New York positive move, I'd point out that the Force Index is showing a negative divergence, which suggests the American index may not have to much further to run.  It's getting close to the top of its Value Zone and a high volume node on the Volume Profile.  The top of the Value Zone often acts as resistance to a stock/index.

Sector Performances - One Month.

It's been a dismal four weeks for most sectors.  Only one sector, Health, has shown real strength, up3.45%.  The only other sectors on the positive side were Property +0.72% and Discretionary, barely positive at +0.25%.

XJO was down -1.06%.  Helping to keep the Index from major falls were Financials flat -0.02% and Materials down modestly, -0.37%.  (Materials were affected adversely by big falls in many of the Lithium Miners.  BHP, the biggest stock in the sector, was up +0.44%.

The biggest falls were in two "sensitive sectors" Energy -7.29% and Information Technology -6.2%.  These two sectors are often very volatile.  I wonder just how much further Energy can fall before a counter-trend rally takes place.

Two "defensive sectors" also did poorly, Staples -3.96% and Utilities -4.36%.  Not much "defensive" quality in those two readings.

 

Sector Momentum 

 

 If a sector is in a counter trend rally, then the Daily RSI is above the Weekly RSI, but Weekly RSI is below the Monthly RSI.  That doesn't mean it can't develop into a full blown up trend.  That would require the Weekly RSI to be above the Monthly RSI - it just hasn't happened yet.  It might on might not.

SECTORS in Counter-Trend Rallies:  Financials, Materials, Information Technology, Communications Services, Health, Staples, Industrials.  XJO is also in a Counter-Trend.  

Sectors in Up Trends:  Discretionary and Property.  Composite Bonds are also in an up trend. 

SECTORS in Down Trends:  Energy, Utilities.  Gold Mining is also in a down trend.

These figures suggest some optimism in the market with seven sectors in counter-trend rallies.  Given the positive seasonals at this time of year, many of those sectors could develop into up trend.

Last week, we had no sectors in up trends.  This week we have two.  So despite the flat result for the XJO, the internals are beginning to show improvement.

100 Leader Stocks above their 200-Day, 50-Day and 10-Day Moving Averages.

• Above their 200-DMA:  last week 36%, this week 39%.
• Above their 50-DMA:  last week 32%, this week 47%
• Above their 10-DMA:  last week 81%, this week 69%.

Stocks above 10-DMA have fallen from their overbought readings of the previous week, but medium to long term pressures remain to the upside.  We need to see Stocks>50 DMA get above their 50% reading to feel that the market could be in a sustainable up trend.

Long Term Market Signal.

 

My long-term Market Signal is based on the NewHighs-NewLows Cumulative Chart with a 10-Day MA. 

 

When the chart moves back above its 10-Day MA a "buy" signal is given.  It is usually reliable for long term investors.  It did have a whipsaw Aug/Sept this year but that is a rare anomaly.

 

Since early September, the chart has been in a steep down trend which is only now beginning to slow.  NH-NL Cum is close to a bullish upside break of its 10-Day MA.  So we are close to getting a long-term "buy" signal.

Conclusion.

 

The Australian market was flat this week after being very strong the previous week.   It has been consolidating this week and XJO remains in a counter-trend rally.  Stay with the trend until it obviously ends.

 

 Postscript.

The Ozzie market often takes a step back in November, mainly because three of the Big Four Banks go ex-dividend in the latter part of the month.  NAB goes ex-dividend this week on 15 November.  Its dividend is 84cents.  Current price is $28.46.  So we can expect a drop of  ~3% in NAB on Wednesday.  ANZ and WBC can expect similar drops when they go ex-dividend after NAB.  These three companies are the 4th, 5th and 6th largest companies in the ASX200.  So their ex-dividend events have a significant impact on th XJO.

Iron Ore is entering a seasonally favourable period up to the end of December, so that is likely to have an impact from now on.

 

Chart from Market Index (note the strength in December):

 

Good Luck.

FINSPIRATION AUSTRALIA. Sat. 11/11/23.

 American Indices up strongly on Friday night.

Dow Jones +1.15%.  SP500 +1.56%.  Nasdaq +2.05%. Small Caps +1.02%.  Banks +1.08%.

SP500

 SP500 pulled back on Thursday, testing the 50-Day MA.  Friday's strong up candle is a continuation of the trend.  Nest resistance level is the top of the Value Zone and the next hig volume node, around 4450 in round numbers.

Volume was on the low side on Friday, resulting in a negative divergence appearing on the Force Index - volume needs to increase if this rally has legs.

The coming week is Options Expiry Week in the U.S. which has a bullish bias.

Commodities.

 Commodities Index +0.5%.  Energy +1.41%.  Base Metals -0.86%.  Agriculture -0.41%.  Gold -1.09%.

That's a mixed picture for Australian Resources on Monday with Energy up and Base Metals down.

In New York, BHP flat -0.12%.  Rio -1.16%.  Woodside continued to collapse -2.23% on heavy volume.  So we might be seeing a culmination of the downtrend in WDS.  Westpac down -1.56%.

Those New York stock figures look bearish, but Ozzie Futures were up +0.31% overnight, so we should have a positive day on Monday following U.S. up.

STW (ETF FOR XJO)

Thursday's bearish reversal candle played out with a down day for the STW and XJO on Friday.  That brings STW back to support of the Point of Control, the long gray bay on the Volume Profile on the left of the chart.  With a good result in the overnight Ozzie Futures we should have a positive day on the ASX bouncing off support.  We need to see a close above Thursday's high to give another "buy" signal.  That might be a bit of an ask.  That would need a rise of about +1% on the STW. 
 

FINSPIRATION AUSTRALIA.

 10/11/23.  Powell sinks U.S. stocks at 1.00 p.m. (NY time) when he said that the Fed may not have done enough to stop inflation.

Dow Jones -0.65%.  SP500 -0.81%.  Nasdaq -0.94%.  Small Caps -1.33%.  Banks -1.46%

SP500

Last night's candle on the SP500 is a bearish engulfing candle.  Coming at the top of the trend after several doji candles - that's usually a reliable signal.

The Chart remains opposite a congestion zone and above the 50-Day MA so this may lead to consolidation rather than the start of a major pull-back.  Wait.

Commodities.

 Commodities Index -0.25%.  Energy -0.09%.  Base Metals -0.58%.  Agriculture -0.58%.  Gold +0.4%.

After half an hour of trading this morning, XJO is down -0.42%.
 

9/11/23. Thur. Evening Finspiration Report

 XJO up modestly today, up +0.28%, after being much higher earlier in trading.

Chart for STW (ETF for XJO).

 Today's candle is a shooting star - a reversal signal.

Coming at the top of the up-trend, at horizontal resistance and resistance of the 50-Day MA - that probably means the end of this up-trend.

A down day tomorrow will confirm.

Good luck

 

9/11/23. Thur. Morning Finspiration Report.

 Major American indices continue to consolidate, but Small Caps continue to fall.

Dow Jones -0.12%.  SP500 +0.1%.  Nasdaq +0.08%.  Small Caps -0.92%.  Banks -0.36%.

SP500

 SP500 is having difficulty pushing up past the Point of Control and the Value Zone of the Volume Profile.

Volume has fallen away.  Unless volume can pick up to push the Index higher, the path of least resistance is to the downside.

On the plus side, consolidation is taking place above the 50-Day MA.  Wait to see which way this breaks.

Commodities.

 Energy continues to fall heavily, down -1.85%, which should be a positive for stocks, but it hasn't been happening.  Energy is now oversold with an RSI at 33.  If Energy reverses to the upside, that would be a negative for American stocks.

Commodities Index -1.11% {pulled down bt Energy).  Base Metals -0.17%.  Agriculture +0.45%.  Gold -1%.

After 30 minutes of trading this morning, XJO is up +0.4%.  Health (XHJ) is leading the way up >1%.

8/11/23. Wed. Evening Finspiration Report.

 ASX up modestly today.  XJO +0.26%.

Chart for STW (ETF for XJO):

Today was a narrow range day, the narrowest for the past four days (NR4), so expect range expansion tomorrow.

The chart remains in consolidation mode with low volumes being recorded.  That suggests that the next move will be to the upside.  We shall see.

XJO remains with plenty of overhead resistance.

IT (XIJ) was the best performer again today,  XIJ +1.86%.  Property (XPJ) also continues to do well, XPJ +1.18%.

Only two sectors were negative today - both the Resources Sectors, XMJ -1.05%, Energy -0.15%.

OZR is an ETF for the Resources.  It was down today on heavy volume OZR -1.79%.

You can see by the width of today's candle just how heavy the volume was today.  That is also reflected in the bottom pane (volume) which has risen sharply higher, and Force Index which has fallen sharply reflecting both high volume and big fall in price.

That brought OZR almost down to horizontal support, so we could see some upside movement in the near future.

European stocks are mostly flat in early trading,  Euro STOXX600 down -0.05%.  Dow Futures -0.1%.  Oil is also flat, Pil -0.01%.  Gold +0.02%.  Not much direction in any of that.

Good luck

8/11/23. Wed. Morning Finspiration Report

 Major U.S. Indices finish on the positive side, but Small Caps pull back.

Dow Jones +0.17%.  SP500 +0.28%.  Nasdaq up strongly +0.9%.  Small Caps -0.69%.  Banks -0.51%.

SP500

I mentioned yesterday the many factors pointing to a pull-back.  Nothing has changed - except some factors have intensified.  Volume has continued to drop off - coming at the top of a trend that indicates a lack of confidence in the trend.  A push by bears would lead to capitulation.

Commodities.

 Commodities Index -2.14%.  Energy -3.62%.  Base Metals flat 0.00%.  Agriculture -1.34%.  Gold -0.41%.

Adter ninety minutes of trading this morning, XJO is up 0.25%.  Information Technology doing best (following the Nasdaq), up +1.62%.  Materials worst -1.61%. 
 

7/11/23. Tues. Evening Finspiration Report.

 RBA raised interest rates today by +0.25%.  They had to do that because they wouldn't dare do it in December?  Who knows.

It seems the market wasn't too fazed by the action.  It gyrated a bit at 2.30 when the announcement was made but then settled down.  XJO finished down -0.28%.

XJO has failed at a minor horizontal resistance level, but the pull-back so far hasn't been gut-wrenchding, leaving open the possibility of further upside.

Today saw intra-day buying, partly after the interest rate announcement - but nothing dramatic.

Today's candle finished above the 3-Day MA so the up trend remains in place.

Best performing sector today was IT (XIJ), up +1.44%.  Worst was XXJJ (Financials) down -1.04%.  Materials (XMJ) was flat -0.09%.

In early trading, European STOXX600 is flat 0.00%.  Dow Futures -0.19%.  Oil is down -1.95% - that might help the American market later in trading if the Oil price stays down.  Stocks/Oil tend to be inversely correlated.

7/11/23. Tuesday Morning Finspiration Report.

 Major indices in America up modestly.

Dow Jones +0.1%.  SP500 +0.18%.  Nasdaq +0.3%.  Small Caps -1.05%.  Banks -0.86%.

SP500

 The SP500 is set up for a pull-back.

1.  At the Point of Control of the Volume Profile.

2.  At the lower edge of the Kumo Cloud (Ichimoku System)

3.  At horizontal resistance.

4.  At a big congestion zone.

5.  Volume has dropped significantly, so there's no conviction in the market.

6.  Overbought on the Stochastic.

It is rare to see so many negative conditions coming together at the one time.

Commodities.

 Commodities Index +0.41%.  Energy +0.33%.  Base Metals +1.29%.  Agriculture +0.27%.  Gold -0.78%.

In the Australian market after 20 minutes of trading, XJO is down -0.23%.

Hope you back a winner in today's Cups race.

6/11/23. Monday Evening Finspiration Report.

 XJO up modestly today +0.28%.  STW (ETF for STW) up +0.25%.

STW inched closer today to major horizontal resistance and is opposite Point of Control on The Volume Profile to the left of the chart.

Tomorrow is RBA interest rate decision day (and Melbourne Cup).  STW is at an inflection point, so the Interest Rate decision will likely be decisive for the near-term direction of the market.

Health (XHJ) was the best performer today, +1.47%, while Energy went the other way -0.97%.

Woodside is the largest stock in Energy.  Here's the chart:

There's no clear sign yet that WDS is ready to turn around, but it is oversold so a rally may not be far off.

In early overseas trading, Europe its flat (STOXX500 +0.09%) and Dow Futures up a little +0.12%.

5/11/23. Weekly Finspiration Report

 Major Stock Markets around the world have had a great week, e.g.,  XJO +2.22%.  SP500 +5.85%.  European STOXX600 +3.41%.  Japanese Nikkei +3.18%.

STW Daily Chart (STW is an ETF which tracks the XJO)

STW broke above its Bullish Falling Wedge on Friday.  The chart had already given two "buy" signals, the first on Wednesday when the DZ Stochastic crossed above its lower band, and then the second one on Thursday when we had a double Supertrend "buy" signal. 

Friday was a heavy volume day which spiked the Force Index and the Volume Index to high levels.  That usually occurs when the market is setting up for a consolidation or pull-back.

Given Friday's big gain on the SP500, it seems likely that the XJO will hit Horizontal Resistance and go into consolidation or pause mode.

SP500 Daily

 Force Index gives good divergence signals.  That played out this week, when SP500 began a counter-trend rally on Monday after a good positive divergence signal appeared on the Force Index the previous week.

SP500 has had a big rise this week and is now at horizontal resistance and resistance from the 50-Day MA.

Expect consolidation or a pull-back in the coming week.

Is this a dead-cat bounce?  

We never know until after the fact.  At this stage we have a counter-trend rally.  We need to see a definite uptrend form with a higher low and a higher high on the SP500.  Given the strength of the current rally - that seems likely after the market absorbs some of the current rise.

Sector Performances this week.

The place to be this week was in Materials, esp. the big miners.  XMJ up +0.87%.  That was the only positive sector.

 

Resurgence of Property continued this week, XPJ +6.88% followed by Information Technology up +4.51%.  Those are two interest rate sensitive sectors - buoyed by suggestions that the Fed. may have reached the end of its interest rate hikes and no rise in Ozzie rates this week.  IT also received a big boost by Block (SQ2) rising by >25% on Friday.  XPJ and XIJ were the worst performers the previous week.

Sector Momentum 

 If a sector is in a counter trend rally, then the Daily RSI is above the Weekly RSI, but Weekly RSI is below the Monthly RSI, then I assume that the Sector is in a counter trend rally.  That doesn't mean it can't develop into a full blown up trend.  That would require the Weekly RSI to be above the Monthly RSI - it just hasn't happened yet.  It might on might not.

SECTORS in Counter-Trend Rallies:  Financials, Materials, Information Technology, Communications Services, Health, Staples, Property, Industrials.  XJO and Composite Bonds are also in Counter-Trend Rallies.  Sector closest to develop a full blown up trend is Property.

SECTORS in Down Trends:  Energy, Utilities.  Gold Mining is also in a down trend.

No Sectors are registering an up-trend.

100 Leader Stocks above their 200-Day, 50-Day and 10-Day Moving Averages.

• Above their 200-DMA:  last week 34%, this week 36%.
• Above their 50-DMA:  last week 12%, this week 32%
• Above their 10-DMA:  last week 19%, this week 81%.

Stocks above 10-DMA is into overbought territory (above 80%) so the market could see some consolidation or a pull-back.

Long Term Market Signal.

 

My long-term Market Signal is based on the NeewHighs-NewLows Cumulative Chart with a 10-Day MA.  When the chart moves back above its 10-Day MA a "buy" signal is given.  It is usually reliable for long term investors.  It did have a whipsaw Aug/Sept this year but that is a rare anomaly.

The chart is currently in a steep down-trend.  New Lows are, however, rapidly disappearing, so we could get a new buy signal in the near term if the market continues to make ground.

Conclusion.

 

The Australian market has risen strongly this week - perhaps a little too strongly.  It probably needs a consolidation before (if) it is to resume its up trend.  If a higher high and higher low appears on the XJO/STW Charts, that would provide a sound medium term "buy" signal.  Given the strength of this week's rise with strong volume - I think we will see a new uptrend develop. 

 

Good Luck.

4/11/23. Saturday Finspiration Report.

 Yesterday was Jobs Day in the U.S.  and the employment figures came in weaker than expected.  Bad News = Good News for the U.S. stock market.  Dow Jones has been up five days this week - its best week in more than a year.

 

 Dow Jones +0.66%.  SP500 +0.94%.  Nasdaq +1.38%.  Small Caps +2.73%.  Banks +3.07%

SP500

 SP500 has had a great run this week.  Now it is running into multiple resistance levels, horizontal resistance, 50-Day MA and the Kumo Cloud.  Expect a pause or pull-back here.

Commodities.

Commodities Index -0.52%.  Energy -1.71%.  Base Metals +0.49%.  Agriculture +0.72%.  Gold +0.36%.

Overnight in the U.S., BHP +1.23%.  Rio +0.77%.  Woodside +0.47%. 

Yesterday in Australia.

XJO was up strongly yesterday.  XJO +1.14%.  STW (ETF for XJO) +1.18%.

The Candle Volume for STW was very wide.  Force Index and Volume are at very high levels.  These volume studies suggest that STW (and XJO) are at or close to a short-term high.

STW is near a horizontal resistance level.  Given overnight action in the U.S. that horizontal resistance level is likely to be hit - and that might result in a consolidation or pull-back in STW and XJO.

3/11/23. Friday Morning Finspiration Report.

 Last night, U.S. markets continue their upside move.  All three major indices were up strongly.

 

Dow Jones +1.7%.  SP500 +1.89%.  Nasdaq +1.79%.  Small Caps +2.66%.  Banks +4.46%

SP500

SP500 up for the fourth day in a row.  It is now at a major resistance level and close to the Value Zone and Point of Control.  We could get a reversal day on Friday.

Commodities.

Commodities +1.06%.  Energy +2.11%.  Base Metals -0.05%.  Agriculture +1.18%.  Gold +0.33%.

After an hour of trading this morning, XJO is up +0.92%.  Property is again leading the way, up +2.38%.  Energy is down, -0.2% and Staples is down, -0.36%.  Financials up, 0.99%.

2/11/23. Thur. Evening Finspiration Report

 Strong Oz market today.  XJO up +0.9%.

Here's the STW Chart (ETF for XJO).

STW gapped up on the opening after the Federal Reserve interest rate announcement.  A bit of intra-day selling came in during the day as the STW hit the Tenkan San (Base Line of the Ichimoku System).   Momentum might slow here.

Oz Vix has now broken below its up-trend line - another bullish sign.

IT was the best performing sector today +3.23%.  IT is a "growth" sector - good to see a growth sector leading the pack.

Second best today was Property,  XPJ +2.36%.  Property continues as a leading sector.

VAP had a false break below the Value Zone of the Volume Profile (big shaded rectangle on the chart).  When that happens the chart usually heads up to the top of the Value Zone.

VAP currently at 72.15.  Top of Value Zone 78 (round number).  That's a sizeable rise from the current level.

Only caveat - VAP is now at the Point of Control - that might cause a few problems.  If VAP rises above that, top of the Value Zone shouldn't be a problem.

Good luck.

 

Dow Jones +0.67%.  SP500 +1.05%.  Nasdaq +1.64%.  Small Caps +0.45%.  Banks +0.13%.

SP500

 SP500 has had three days to the upside and has now reached the Kijun Sen (Base Line of Ichimoku System),  DZ Stochastic is above its lower line and headed up.  RSI is also rising.  Looks good to me.

Commodities.

 Commodities Index +0.15%.  Energy -0.49%.  Base Metals +0.93%.  Agriculture -0.14%.  Gold +0.32%.

After 90 minutes of trading this morning, XJO is up strongly +1.3%.