1/4/23.  Saturday Finspiration Report.

XJO up 0.78% yesterday.

The oz market is in a strong up-trend - but not as strong as the U.S.

MACD has turned positive with RSI above 50.  That should mean further upside.  Any pull-backs are likely to be bought.

U.S. stocks up Friday night.   

Dow Jones +1.26%.  SP500 +1.44%.  Nasdaq +1.74%.  Small Caps1.94%.  Banks +0.88%.

SP500.

I have t wonder how much of last night's rise was due to funds doing "window-dressing" to improve their performance bonuses?

Whatever.  SP500 has clearly formed an inverse head-n-shoulders pattern.  It is well above the Keltner Channel.  The mid-line of the KC is beginning to rise - bullish.

This is a strong upside trend - buy the dips.

Bullish Percent NYA 

Bullish Percent for the NY Stock Exchange on the Point and Figure Chart has switched from a descending row of Os to an ascending row of X's, i.e., the Index has switched from bearish to bullish.  This is a correction of the previous bear trend.

Commodities.

Commodities Index +0.94%.  Energy +1.7%.  Base Metals flat -0.1%.  Agriculture +0.59%.  Gold -0.52%.

Bitcoin.

Last night, Bitcoin +0.83%.  Stay with the up-trend.

Finspiration Australia

 31/3/23.  Friday Morning Finspiration Report.

U.S. stocks rise again.   Nasdaq "officially" in bull market.

Dow Jones +0.43%.  SP500 +0.57%.  Nasdaq +0.73%.  Small Caps -0.09%.  Regional Banks -2.03%.

Nasdaq is up 20% from its lows which puts it into bull market territory.  

While the media has been focussing on the "bad news" in the banking industry, technology has been leading the charge into a new bull market.

SP500.

SP500 has now pushed above the Keltner Channel.  It looks like it's "buy the dips" time again.

Commodities.

Commodities Index +0.73%.  Energy +0.75%.  Base Metals flat 0.00%.  Agriculture +0.94%.  Gold +0.9%.

After nearly 30 minutes of trading this morning, XJO is up +0.7%

Bitcoin.

Last night, Bitcoin fell -0.8%.  During the night session it hit a new 52-week high.  Stay with the up-trend.

Finspiration Australia.

   30/3/23.  Thursday Morning Finspiration Report.

After Tuesday's lull, the U.S. market sprang to life last night. but Oil fell.

Dow Jones +1%.  SP500 +1.42%.  Nasdaq +1.79%,  Small Caps +0.65%.  Regional Banks continue to consolidate, +1.07%.

All eleven U.S. sectors were up, with Real Estate the best +2.31%.  That suggests that Real Estate has bottomed after a two months' slide.

SP500.

SP500 has broken above its sideways consolidation and sits above the Hull MA13, 20-Day EMA and the 200-Day MA.  Supertrend is bullish.  Stay with the uptrend.

Commodities.

Commodities Index -0.54%.  Energy -1.38%.  Base Metals +0.7%.  Agriculture -0.59%.  Gold -0.5%

ASX Futures are up +0.7%.

Bitcoin.

Bitcoin up nearly +4% last night.

The trend remains to the upside.  Stay with the trend.

Finspiration Australia.

    30/3/23.  Thursday Evening Finspiration Report.

XJO up strongly today.  All ASX Sectors rose except for Real Estate.  

XJO up +1.02%.  

In the short-term, XJO has turned decidedly bullish - above the 8-Day EMA and the 20-Day EMA.  Hull MA 13 has turned up (bullish) and Supertrend is yellow (bullish).  The Index still has the 50-Day EMA and top of the Keltner Channel as resistance.

IAF/STW ratio still hasn't turned bullish.  The ratio took a bit of a hit today as STW went down a little (going ex-dividend) while XJO was up strongly.  But the Ratio is very close to turning bullish.

Today's candle is built on yesterday's bullish candle.   

Risk on was signalled today with the best sectors were:  Information Technology +1.7%, Materials +1.5%, Financials +1.5%.

After such a strong day today, we might get a "pause" day tomorrow, but Europe is currently up strongly, +0.8%.  It is still early in the trading session.

Finspiration Australia

  29/3/23.  Wednesday Morning Finspiration Report.

Not much happening overnight in the U.S.   Oil up again.

Dow Jones -0.12%.  SP500 -0.16%.  Nasdaq -0.45%,  Small Caps +0.1%.  Regional Banks -0.09%.

five out of eleven U.S. sectors were up, with Energy the best +1.45%.

SP500.

SP500 is in a sideways consolidation but remains above the 20-Day EMA and the 200-Day MA.  Plenty of indecision with two doji candlesticks in a row.  Wait.

Commodities.

Commodities Index +0.47%.  Energy +0.1%.  Base Metals +0.05%.  Agriculture +0.45%.  Gold 0.82%

After nearly 20 minutes of trading, XJO is down -0.2%.  It seems we'll have a non-trend day today.

Bitcoin.

Bitcoin up +1% last night.

BTC still finished above  Supertrend.  Hull MA13 has turned down reflecting short-term selling pressure.

The trend remains to the upside.  Stay with the trend.

Finspiration Australia.

   28/3/23.  Tuesday Evening Finspiration Report.

XJO had a strong day today.

XJO up +1.04%.  

The Trends:

• Long term trend (200-Day MA) neutral.
• Medium term trend (20-EMA) down.
• Short term trend (Hull MA13) up.

The Index still has a lot of ground to make up to turn the medium term trend to bullish.

Today's candle is bullish and makes a break-out from a rising triangle, which is bullish.  So, in the short-term we're looking OK, just don't get too euphoric yet.

Defensives took a back seat today, while cyclical growth stocks were up solidly.  Energy up +4.5%, Materials up +2.2%, Financials up +1.1%.  Health down -0.9%.

Uncharacteristically, Information Technology -0.6% took a hit - following the American Nasdaq down.

Amongst the large caps, Woodside Energy was the stand-out +5.4%.

The Ratio Chart of Composite Bonds to XJO still hasn't favoured stocks over bonds - that confirms the need for caution until the medium term trend turns up.

Until the 5-Day MA gets above the 21-Day MA (at the very least) its best to maintain a defensive stance.

In early European trade, stocks are generally up with the Euro STOXX600 up +0.3%.

Stay Safe

Finspiration Australia

 28/3/23.  Tuesday Morning Finspiration Report.

Mixed results overnight in the U.S.  Dow out-performs.  Oil surged higher.

Dow Jones +0.6%.  SP500 +0.16%.  Nasdaq -0.47%,  Small Caps +1.02%.  Regional Banks +0.87%.

Eight out of eleven U.S. sectors were up, but the Nasdaq was weighed down by falls in Information Technology -0.85%.  Unlike Australia, IT is a heavy-weight in the U.S. market.

SP500.

SP500 remains mildly bullish finishing above the 20-Day MA and Supertrend.  Hull MA13 remains heading to the upside.  Stay with the trend.

Commodities.

Commodities Index +1.87%.  Energy +3.36%.  Base Metals +0.85%.  Agriculture +0.95%.  Gold -0.93%.

Gold lost some of its safe-haven gloss as regional banks rose.

Iron Ore -0.51%.

After nearly 30 minutes of trading, XJO is up nearly 1%.

Bitcoin.

Bitcoin was under some selling pressure last night falling just over -2%.  

BTC still finished above the 8-Day MA and Supertrend.  Hull MA13 has turned down reflecting the selling pressure.

The trend remains to the upside.  Stay with the trend.

  27/3/23.  Monday Evening Finspiration Report.

XJO had a narrow range day and finished flat.

XJO up just +0.1%.  That's the second narrow range day in a row and the second doji candle-stick in a row.  Lots of indecision.

The Index is consolidating at the low end of the down-trend.  Wait.

The Ratio Chart of Composite Bonds to XJO continues to favour Bonds.

Until the 5-Day MA gets above the 21-Day MA (at the very least) its best to maintain a defensive stance.

Stay Safe

Finspiration Australia.

   26/3/23.  Weekend Report - The Week That Was.  Week Ended 24/3/23.

XJO Monthly Chart.

We've had over three weeks of trading so far in the Month of March.  So far, the month has been poor, with the XJO down -4.18%.  The index remains below the 8-Month EMA - bearish.

This chart gives very slow signals - as they only take relevance at the end of the month.  But currently, the chart is not looking flash hot.

  

Monthly RSI is at 49.74.  50 represents a dividing line between bullish and bearish.  

XJO Weekly Chart.

                                            

XJO finished the week below its 50-Week MA (equiv. to 250-Day MA), but it held support at the 6900 level (round figures).  That was set in the early days of January this year - so our market has gone nowhere in the ensuing three months.

In the past five days, XJO has fallen -0.57%.   We have now had seven weeks of weekly losses.  This week did show some buying during the week.  (See daily chart below)

Turmoil is largely due to fear about Bank solvency in the U.S. and Europe.

XJO Daily Chart.

This week, the XJO attempted to climb above the 200-Day MA, but retreated on Thursday.  Friday saw plenty of intra-day buying (see long lower wick on Friday's candle) so we may see another attempt at breaking above the 200-Day MA.

XJO remains oversold with an RSI at 35.31.  

Weekly Changes in Sectors.

Sectors were evenly split this week between positive and negative sectors.  Five sectors were positive and five sectors negative with one flat, XHJ.  The best performer was Discretionary +1.2%.  But that performance was smashed in the above chart by Gold Miners, +7.79%.  XGD is not a sector but an industry grouping within Materials (XMJ).  It is a good barometer of fear in the market, as Investors often see Gold (and Gold Miners) as a safe haven in times of turmoil.

The big damage this week was done by Financials -1.89%.  That's not a bad result given the turmoil in overseas markets.

NewHighs-NewLows.

This is a long-term indicator, but a good guide for long-term investors.

NH-NL Cumulative started falling on 9 Feb.  It crossed below its 10-Day MA on 13 February.  Until this (blue line) gets back above its 10-Day MA , its best for long-term investors to stay defensive.

Stocks v Bonds.  Relative performance.

On a relative basis, Bonds are currently outperforming Stocks, i.e., the chart is well below the zero level.  When Bonds are out-performing stocks its a sign to stay defensive.

The 5-Day MA and 21-Day MA provide a reasonable guide to the broad market.  When the 5-Day MA crosses below the 21-Day MA - stay defensive.  When the 5-Day MA crosses above the 21-Day go to offense.  The 5-Day MA crossed below the 21-Day MA on 9 February - sell signal.

The 5-Day MA crossed above the 21-Day MA on the 9 January - buy signal.

Here's the XJO with the cross-over dates pin-pointed:

The Bond Market is dominated almost exclusively by professionals while the Stock Market has a large proportion of retail investors (amateurs). 

% of Stocks above key moving averages.

1.  % of stocks above 10-Day Moving Average: Last Week 19%, This Week 28%.  

2.  % of stocks above 50-Day Moving Average, Last Week 30%, This Week 29%.  

3.  % of stocks above 200-Day Moving Average, Last Week 50%, This Week 44%.

Stocks above the 10-Day MA showed a solid improvement this week.  That's often indicative of a possible change in trend.

 

Conclusion.

 

The market has been down for seven weeks in a row.  Market news has been dominated by dismal news among banks, small and large in the U.S. and Europe.

Our market is showing some signs of finding a bottom this week, but we need much more evidence before feeling comfortable about the Stock market.

The Stock/Bonds Ratio Chart might provide timely warning of a reversal to the upside.  So far, however, it is still saying, "Stay Defensive".

Stay Safe.

Finspiration Australia.

 25/3/23.  Saturday Finspiration Report.

Yesterday - XJO down marginally after strong intra-day buying.

Last night - U.S. stocks finish positive.

XJO Friday:

XJO down -0.2% yesterday.  The long lower wick on yesterday's candle indicates strong intra-day buying.

The only positive on the chart is the Hull MA13 which is the shortest MA I use.  

XJO remains below the 200-Day MA.  It has been rejected by the 10-Day MA and the first line of the triple Supertrends.  We need to see better than that to enter for a trade.

Overnight in the U.S.  Major indices finish up modestly.  Regional Banks have a big rise.

Dow Jones +0.41%.  SP500 +0.56%.  Nasdaq +0.31%.  Small Caps +1.07%.  Regional Banks +3.03%.  Despite that big rise in Region Banks, the chart remains mired at the low end of its big down-trend.

SP500.

SP500 is doing better than Australia's XJO.  It finished last night above its 200-Day MA and above all three of the triple Supertrends.  

Hull MA13 is positive and the Index finished above the 10-Day MA.

The index remains locked between the 50-Day MA and the 200-Day MA.  A move above the 50-Day MA would be bullish.

Commodities.

Commodities Index +0.48%.  Energy +0.2%.  Base Metals flat -0.05%.  Agriculture +1.53%.  Gold -1.13%.

The upside movements in the American Indices suggest that the Australian market will be up on Monday.

Bitcoin.

Overnight, Bitcoin was down -2.41%.  The Hull MA13 has turned down which is a short-term negative signal.

Longer term, BTC remains bullish - above the 10-Day MA and triple Supertrends.

Finspiration Australia.

 24/3/23.  Friday Morning Finspiration Report.

In the U.S. overnight, choppy trading - modest rise in the Dow Jones.

Dow Jones +0.23%.  SP500 +0.3%.  Nasdaq +1.01%.  Small Caps -0.86%.  Regional Banks down heavily again -2.78%.

Breadth was weak with only two of eleven sectors on the positive side, Telecommunications and Information Technology.

SP500

SP500 had a wide range day ending with a doji candle - lots of indecision.

SP500 failed for the third time at the 50-Day MA - will fourth time be the charm?

The resistance level is at about the 50% retracement level from the early February high - that gives the resistance level added importance.

The Index remains above the 8-Day EMA and the three Supertrend lines.  

Three European central banks (U.K., Norway and Swiss) raised interest rates which didn't help stock market sentiment.

Commodities.

Commodities Index -0.26%.  Energy -0.71%.  Base Metals +1.63%.  Agriculture -0.56%.  Gold remains strong, +1.25%.

After ninety minutes of trading, XJO is down -0.5%, but now gently trending up.

Bitcoin.

Last night, BTC was up +3.41%.  The trend remains up.

Finspiration Australia.

 23/3/23.  Thursday Evening Finspiration Report.

XJO down again today after two days to the upside.

XJO has failed at the first levels of resistance:  -1SD below the 20-Day MA, the 8-Day EMA and the first Supertrend line.  

That doesn't look good to me.

The Ratio Chart of Composite Bonds to XJO continues to favour Bonds.

Until the 5-Day MA gets above the 21-Day MA (at the very least) its best to maintain a defensive stance.

Stay Safe

Finspiration Australia.

23/3/23.  Finspiration Thursday Bitcoin Report.

 Bitcoin fell -2.73% last night but remains above key support levels.  The trend remains up.  Stay with the trend.

Finspiration Australia.

 23/3/23.  Thursday Morning Finspiration Report.

Fed raises interest rates +0.25%.  Stocks tank.

Dow Jones -1.63%.  SP500 -1.65%.  Nasdaq -1.6%.  Small Caps -2.59%.  Confidence in regional Banks continues to collapse, -5.69%.

SP500.

SP500 shows a big bearish engulfing candle  taking the Index well down below nearby supports.  Bearish.

Commodities

Commodities Index +0.26%.  Energy +0.2%.  Base Metals +0.36%.  Agriculture -0.35%.  Gold +1.7%

Finspiration Australia.

 22/3/23.  Wednesday Evening Finspiration Report.

Today, Australian market followed U.S. lead from last night to the upside.

XJO up +0.87% today.

Today was the second day in a row to the upside.  That's the first time for almost three weeks that we've had back-to-back upside days.

That is promising, but looking at the chart it is still below the 20-DMA (centre line of the Bollinger Bands), below triple Supertrend lines and the 8-Day EMA.  It also sits below -1SD from the BB centre line.  Formidable stuff.

Tonight in the U.S., the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision.  That may be market moving.

Above is the ratio chart for Bonds/ASX.  It had a nice move to the upside today but still a long way from the 5-Day MA moving above the 21-Day MA.