Finspiration Australia. Chart Analysis for Australian and International Stock Market

        1/1/23.  Weekend Report - The Week That Was.  Week Ended 30/12/22.

 Chart Analysis on this Blog is purely descriptive.  It is written for informational and educational purposes and should not be taken as financial advice.  Do your own research or seek advice from a Registered Financial Advisor.

ASX was down for the fourth week in a row - not a great December, historically the best month of the year.  

XJO Monthly Chart.

The month of December has been poor for the XJO, down -3.37%.   For the whole of 2022, XJO down -5.45%.  That's tolerable for the long term investor.

The Hull MA13 and the 8-Month EMA Have both turned up.  That's significant.  Remember that Hull MA13 was the first indicator to turn bearish back in October 2021.  

The chart in December was knocking on resistance of the Supertrend (7/1.5).  That caused the Index some problems.  

XJO Quarterly Chart.

Despite the poor results in December, the fourth Quarter of 2022 did well, up +8.72%.  That enabled the XJO to recover about half the loses experienced in the two middle quarters of the year.

XJO Weekly Chart.

                                            

In the past five days, XJO has fallen -0.97%.  

8-Week EMA and Hull MA13 has now turned down.  

XJO is now down to support of the 50-WMA and Supertrend (7/1.5)

The next few days may be crucial.  Either support holds, or XJO crashes to the down-side with the next support level around 6800.  XJO is currently at about 7000 (round figures).

XJO Daily Chart.

This chart emphasises the importance of the next few days.  XJO is now back to the 200-Day MA.  That's usually taken as the demarcation between bull and bear markets.  If XJO bounces here - the bull is still alive and kicking.  A fall through the 200-Day MA, and the bears will be cheering - it will also negate the Golden Cross (50-DMA crossing above the 200-DMA).  The 200-DMA is a powerful support/resistance level.  Continue to watch

ASX Sector Results for this week.

All eleven sectors were down this week.  XIJ was the best and only just down, -0.02%.  XDJ, which has been doing poorly in recent weeks, was relatively resilient, down -0.19%

XEJ (Energy) -1.64% and XPJ (Property) -1.69% were the two worst performers.  Because of international factors, XEJ tends to jump around a lot.  The next section of this report is a better guide to the fortunes of XEJ.

Relative Strength of Sectors.

RSI (Relative Strength Index) is calculated using the default setting of 14 days - almost three weeks of trading.  It provides a more reliable guide to changes in sectors than the one-week results which can jerk around quite a lot and, thus, RSI is probably a better guide to recent strength in the sectors. (Click here for a description of RSI.)

Ten out of eleven sectors have now fallen below the 50 RSI level.  The worst is Discretionary with an RSI of 35.32.  That makes it oversold, and, as we saw above, XDJ has been relatively resilient in the past week. 

The only sector above the mid-line (50) is XUJ (Utilities ) 53.6.  Next best are XMJ (Materials) 48.91 and XEJ (Energy) 46.  Resources remain the place to be. 

XJO below 50.  That's into bearish territory.

NewHighs-NewLows Cumulative.

Early this month, NH-NL Cum briefly rose above the 10-Day MA but now continues to fall below its 10-Day MA.  

This is a lagging indicator but bullish signals are usually highly reliable.  At this stage, this chart is suggesting that long-term investors stay away from this market.

I've developed another metric StrongStocks-WeakStocks which is similar to NH-NL but gives signals a little earlier than NH-NL.SS-WS is up for the seventh week in a row and has moved well above its 5-Week MA.   This week there were 7 Strong Stocks and 7 Weak Stocks.  That's flat.

The 5-Week MA is now close to the SS-SW line.  A weak reading next week would provide a sell signal.

% of Stocks above key moving averages.

1.  % of stocks above 10-Day Moving Average: Last Week 36%, This Week 35%.  

2.  % of stocks above 50-Day Moving Average, Last Week 57%, This Week 42%.  

3.  % of stocks above 200-Day Moving Average, Last Week 50%, This Week 41%.  

All measures are now in bearish territory.  We need to see improvement in all this measures to go long again.

% of stocks above the 200-Day MA fell again this this week and below its 5-Day MA.   It is also below  the bullish reading of 50%.

Conclusion.

 

December has been poor for the ASX.

XJO on the daily chart is now back to the crucial support level of the 200-DMA.

The next few days should give us some indication of market direction for January.

Stay Safe. 

Finspiration Australia. Chart Analysis for Australian and International Stock Markets + Bitcoin.

  31/12/22.  Saturday Finspiration Morning Report.

Wishing you the best for 2023. 

U.S. down a little, Europe down, Commodities up, Bitcoin flat, ASX up.

Dow Jones -0.22%.  SP500 --0.25%.  Nasdaq -0.11%.  Small Caps -0.45%.  Banks -0.17%.

Euro STOXX600 -1.27%.  

U.S. saw intra-day buying in the last hour of trading which took the worst out of the indices.  Europe was closed before that intra-day buying took place so their results remained poor.

SP500.

SP500 is in the "no trade" zone of the Kumo Cloud.  Overhead resistance remains with the Base Line of the Ichimoku system.

Both RSI and ROC remain below their mid-lines.  Wait.

To state the bleeding obvious:  No Santa Rally this year.

Commodities.

Commodities Index +0.9%.  Energy+1.9%.  Base Metals down -0.97%.  Agriculture flat 0.00%.  Gold +0.47%.

Gold continues in its long term up-trend.

XJO.

XJO had a narrow range day inside the range of the previous day.  The long upper wick on the candle indicates intra-day selling pressure.

It remains above the Kumo Cloud but below resistance of the Conversion Line and the Base Line.  This is more negative than positive.

Bitcoin.

Bitcoin down marginally -0.07%, and remains below key indicators.  I wouldn't touch this with money hidden your grannie's biscuit tin.

Finspiration Australia. Chart Analysis for Australian and International Stock Markets + Bitcoin.

 30/12/22.  Finspiration Morning Report.

U.S. up, Europe up, Commodities flat, Bitcoin

Dow Jones +1.05%.  SP500 +1.75%.  Nasdaq +2.59%.  Small Caps +2.2%.  Banks +1.7%.

In early trading, Europe was down but moved up after the U.S. opened.  Euro STOXX600 +0.68%.

SP500.

SP500 is in the "no trade" zone of the Kumo Cloud.  Overhead resistance remains with the Supertrend and the Base Line of the Ichimoku system.

Both RSI and ROC remain below the mid-line.  Wait.

Commodities.

Commodities Index -0.12%.  Energy -0.45%.  Base Metals flat 0.00%.  Agriculture -0.49%.  Gold +0.56%.

Gold continues to bounce off its rising 20-Day MA.

Bitcoin.

Bitcoin was up a little last night +0.44%, but remains below key indicators.  Avoid.

Finspiration Australia. Chart Analysis for Australian and International Stock Markets.

  28/12/22.  Finspiration Wednesday Evening Report.

XJO fell heavily -0.94% after being down >1.2% earlier in the day.

ROC14 went below zero on 12 Dec.  That was a sell signal.  That was confirmed by the MACD Histogram being below zero.

XHJ (Health) was the only sector up today, +0.21%.  Worst was XEJ (Energy) down a whopping -3.98%.

That was a big down day today which brings the index down to support of the Kumo Cloud.  That might produce an up-day tomorrow.

Bonds are doing better relatively to Stocks:

This chart provides reasonable buy/sell signals.  Buy stocks when the 10-day RS of stocks/bonds rises above zero.  Sell stocks when 10-Day RS of stocks/bonds falls below zero.

NH-NL Cumulative continues to lie below its 10-Day MA.  That's bearish.

Finspiration Australia. Chart Analysis for Australian and International Stock Markets. + Bitcoin

  Chart Analysis on this Blog is purely descriptive.  It is written for informational and educational purposes and should not be taken as financial advice.  Do your own research or seek advice from a Registered Financial Advisor.

29/12/22.  Finspiration Thursday Morning Report.

Overnight:  U.S. down, Europe down, Commodities down.  Bitcoin flat.  

 

Dow Jones -1.1%%.  SP500 -1.2%.  Nasdaq -1.35%%.  Small Caps --1.89%.  Banks -0.31%%.

Stochastic RSIs on major indices are below 50 - that keeps them in bearish territory.  

All eleven U.S. Sectors were down last night.

 SP500.

SP500 has broken marginally below the support of the Kumo Cloud.   Conversion Line is below the Base Line and Supertrend Line is blue - all bearish.

CCI and MACD Histogram are both showing positive divergences.  With an oversold RSI, that provides a chance for a move to the upside.

Commodities.

Commodities Index -1.13%.  Energy -1.58%.  Base Metals -1.36%. Agriculture +0.7%%.  Gold -3.15%.

Gold was down heavily but the up-trend remains intact.

In early morning trade in Australia down -0.75%.   Ten out of eleven sectors are down, the only sector up is XHJ (Health) breaking a recent run of outs.  XEJ (Energy) is leading to the downside.

Bitcoin.

BTCUSD down -1.04% overnight.  Conversion Line of the Ichimoku system has crossed below the Base Line - that's a bearish signal.  BTC is in a long term down-trend.

Finspiration Australia. Chart Analysis for Australian and International Stock Markets

 28/12/22.  Finspiration Wednesday Evening Report.

XJO lost ground today -0.3% after being up in the first half hour of trading.

Today's action was a narrow-range, inside day.  That denotes indecision.  

Four sectors were up today.  The best was Energy +1.52%.  Materials was second best but a long way behind Energy.  Materials +0.26%.  Both Discretionary and Utilities just made it into positive territory.

Worst today was XHJ (Health) -1.23%.  XNJ (Industrials -1.11&

Trading has begun in Europe with mixed results.  London +0.67%.  France -0.16%.  Germany -0.25%.  Euro STOXX600 is flat +0.4%.

Europeans seem to be waiting on the U.S. to open.  Dow Futures are also currently flat +0.13%.

Finspiration Australia. Chart Analysis for Australian and International Stock Markets + Bitcoin.

 Chart Analysis on this Blog is purely descriptive.  It is written for informational and educational purposes and should not be taken as financial advice.  Do your own research or seek advice from a Registered Financial Advisor.

28/12/22.  Finspiration Wednesday Morning Report.

Overnight:  U.S. mixed, Europe up, Commodities up.  Bitcoin flat.  

 

Dow Jones +0.11%.  SP500 -0.4%.  Nasdaq -1.38%.  Small Caps -0.09%.  Banks +0.35%.

RSIs on all five indices are below 50 - that keeps them in bearish territory.  

Tech was the killer last night.

 SP500.

SP500 continues to find support at the Kumo Cloud, but that is precarious as the Cloud is very thin at that point.  That means that support is weak - it wouldn't take much to push the Index below the Cloud and into bear country.

Commodities.

Commodities Index +0.9%.  Last night's candle is a bullish engulfing candle - that's a positive.  That was largely due to a similar event in Base Metals, up +1.79%.  Energy +1.15%.  Agriculture -0.45%%.  Gold +0.84%%.

Last night's candle for Gold was a "smoke-stack".  It finished positive but intra-day selling is evident.  Next movement could be down

In early morning trade in Australia is up positively.  That all ended at about 10.30.  Since then it is all down-hill.  Coming into the lunch session, XJO is down -0.45%.  Only three sectors are up.  Materials, Energy and Utilities.  All others are down.  Health is the worst down >1%.

Bitcoin.

BTCUSD down -0.81% overnight.  Conversion Line of the Ichimoku system has crossed below the Base Line - that's a bearish signal.

 

Finspiration Australia. Chart Analysis for Australian and International Stock Markets.

       26/12/22.  Weekend Report - The Week That Was.  Week Ended 23/12/22.

 Chart Analysis on this Blog is purely descriptive.  It is written for informational and educational purposes and should not be taken as financial advice.  Do your own research or seek advice from a Registered Financial Advisor.

ASX was down for the third week in a row - not a great December so far, historically the best month of the year.  

XJO Monthly Chart.

The month of December has been doing poorly for the XJO, down so far -2.42%.  

The down-trend in the Monthly Chart may have been reversed, but the chart is giving no definite signal

The Hull MA13 and the 8-Month EMA Have both turned up.  That's significant.  Remember that Hull MA13 was the first indicator to turn bearish back in October 2021.  

The chart in December is knocking on resistance of the Supertrend (7/1.5).  That is causing the Index some problems.  It seems unlikely, with one week to go, that the XJO will be positive for December.

XJO Weekly Chart.

                                            

In the past five days, XJO has fallen -0.57%.  In the previous two weeks, the index was down -0.89% and -1.21%.  If you are a glass half-full guy, you would say that falls have moderated.

Despite this week's fall, the chart remains in a bullish up-trend and above all key moving averages.

Hull MA13 has now turned down, other MAs and the Supertrend Line remain up.  The index has formed a double bottom.  Using a standard measure rule, that suggests the XJO will make a new all time high.

XJO Daily Chart.

The chart for XJO shows that the damage to the index was largely due to a big fall on Tuesday when it fell -1.54%.

That provided a test of the 200-Day MA which proved positive as the index rose strongly on Wednesday, up +1.29%.  That took the index up to test the Supertrend (7/1.5), which failed on Friday.  The index is between a rock and a hard place.

The Gold Cross (50-DMA above 200-DMA) remains intact.  The bounce off the 200-DMA on Wednesday gives the index a bullish slant.

Relative performance of ASX YTD.

So far this year, ASX is down -9.82%.  Not a great result.  But, if this is any consolation, that's relatively better than most international indices YTD.  Brazil is the only index (+2.74%) which is positive.  Australia is about the same as (surprise, surprise) the U.K., -9.8%,  But the Ozzie is doing better than other major indices.  (The following is from FTSE Russell.)

Some Examples:  U.S. -20.51%, Japan -17.84%, Germany -24.59%, China -24.84%, Canada -13.76%.

ASX Sector Results for this week.

Three sectors were up and one flat.  Seven sectors were down.

Best this week was XUJ (Utilities), up +4.75%.  Next best was XEJ (Energy) +0.65%.  XMJ (Materials) was up a little, +0.15%.  XXJ (Financials) flat, +0.02%.

The worst performers were cyclicals, XDJ (Discretionary) -3.23% and XIJ (Information Technology) -3.22%.  Both of those are being affected by rising interest rates and inflationary pressures. As it is the second largest sector in the ASX, its big fall did a lot of damage.  

Relative Strength of Sectors.

RSI (Relative Strength Index) is calculated using the default setting of 14 days - almost three weeks of trading.  It provides a more reliable guide to changes in sectors than the one-week results which can jerk around quite a lot and, thus, RSI is probably a better guide to recent strength in the sectors. (Click here for a description of RSI.)

Eight out of eleven sectors have now fallen below the 50 RSI level.  The worst is Discretionary with an RSI of 34.8.  That makes it oversold, so it could rebound in the near future.  

The only sectors above the mid-line (50) are XMJ (Materials) 52.12, XEJ (Energy) 50.24, XUJ (Utilities) 59.12.  There is a degree of synergy between Energy and Utilies, so it is basically resources which are the best performing sectors.

XJO below 50.  That's into bearish territory.

NewHighs-NewLows Cumulative.

 

Early this month, NH-NL Cum briefly rose above the 10-Day MA but now continues to fall below its 10-Day MA.  

This is a lagging indicator but bullish signals are usually highly reliable.  This is a metric for the long-term investor. I'd like to see the 10-DMA above the 20-DMA to be confident of a long-term bull signal.  There's not much in it, at the moment, so it wouldn't take much bullish action to switch this into a bullish signa.

I've developed another metric StrongStocks-WeakStocks which is similar to NH-NL but gives signals a little earlier than NH-NL.SS-WS is up for the seventh week in a row and has moved well above its 5-Week MA.   This week there were 13 Strong Stocks and 7 Weak Stocks.  That was an increase in both Strong Stocks (+3) and Weak Stocks (+4)

Since crossing SS-SW crossing above its 5-WMA, STW (ETF for XJO) is up +4.7%.

% of Stocks above key moving averages.

1.  % of stocks above 10-Day Moving Average: Last Week 32%, This Week 36%.  

2.  % of stocks above 50-Day Moving Average, Last Week 68%, This Week 57%.  

3.  % of stocks above 200-Day Moving Average, Last Week 50%, This Week 50%.  

Both the medium-term (%stocks above 50DMA) and long-term (%stocks above 200DMA) measures remain bullish.  The short-term measure (%stocks above 10DMA) is bearish but no significant change from the previous week. 

% of stocks above the 200-Day MA fell this this week and below its 5-Day MA, but remains at the bullish reading of 50%.

Conclusion.

 

ASX had a poor week this week but downside momentum is slowing.  Daily and Weekly Charts are out of sync, Daily is bearish while Weekly is bullish.  We need to see the Daily return to bullish conditions if we are to see a strong end of year rally.

Plenty of conflicting data appear this week.  So, despite the poor net overall result, breadth remains on the cusp.

Stay Safe. 

Finspiration Australia. Chart Analysis for Australian and International Stock Markets + Bitcoin

 Chart Analysis on this Blog is purely descriptive.  It is written for informational and educational purposes and should not be taken as financial advice.  Do your own research or seek advice from a Registered Financial Advisor.

24/12/22.  Finspiration Saturday Report.

Santa's sleigh had a minor hiccough.  Back in Lapland, Elves got to work and it is back up flying the skies again.  Merry Xmas.

Overnight:  U.S. up, Europe mixed, Commodities up.  Bitcoin flat.  

 

Dow Jones +0.53%%.  SP500 +0.59%%.  Nasdaq +0.21%.  Small Caps +0.66%.  Banks +0.49%%.

Last night saw follow through buying after the previous day's intra-day buying, but not particularly strong.

SP500.

The chart continues to find support at the Kumo Cloud.  Overhead resistance remains at the confluence of the Conversion Line and Base Line of the Ichimoku System.  Above that is the 200-Day MA where the SP500 has failed twice in recent times.  Will third time be the charm?

Commodities.

Commodities Index +1.83%.  Energy +2.51%.  Base Metals +0.98%.  Agriculture +0.55%.  Gold +0.3%.

The two-day candle-stick pattern on DBC (Commodities) shows a "kicker" pattern, a down day followed by an up day.  That's a fairly strong bullish signal.  Gold continues to find support at its 20-Day MA - and remains in its medium-term up-trend.

All of that suggests a bullish start for Australian stocks when they resume trading after the Xmas holidays. But a lot of water will flow under the bridge before that happens - including another day of trading on the U.S. market.

Bitcoin.

BTCUSD flat -0.08% overnight.  Short-term, BTC is in a sideways consolidation pattern.

BTCUSD remains below resistance of the Base Line of the Ichimoku system. That's a bearish sign.

 Chart Analysis on this Blog is purely descriptive.  It is written for informational and educational purposes and should not be taken as financial advice.  Do your own research or seek advice from a Registered Financial Advisor.

22/12/22.  Finspiration Thursday Morning Report.

Is the Santa Rally Dead?

Overnight:  U.S. down, Europe down, Commodities down.  Bitcoin flat.  

 

Dow Jones -1.05%.  SP500 -1.45%.  Nasdaq -2.18%.  Small Caps -1.23%.  Banks -0.45%.

Note the long tails on last night candles.  That indicates plenty of intra-day buying.  Santa might have had a hitch last night, but he is still getting up to speed.

SP500.

Last night's candle pushed well below the Kumo Cloud, but intra-day buying pushed it back above the Cloud.  Above the Cloud retains the medium=term bullish outlook.

Commodities.

Commodities Index -1.27%.  Energy -1.57%.  Base Metals -1.07%.  Agriculture +0.25%.  Gold -1.21%.

Commodities Index continues to run into resistance at the 50-Day MA.  It needs to get over that barrier before further progress can be made.  Gold has pulled back to support of the 20-Day MA - but remains in its medium-term up-trend.

In early morning trade in Australia is down -0.9%.

Bitcoin.

BTCUSD flat +0.01% overnight.

BTCUSD remains below resistance of the Base Line of the Ichimoku system. That's a bearish sign.

Finspiration Australia. Chart Analysis for Australian and International Stock Markets.

 Chart Analysis on this Blog is purely descriptive.  It is written for informational and educational purposes and should not be taken as financial advice.  Do your own research or seek advice from a Registered Financial Advisor.

22/12/22.  Finspiration Evening Report.

XJO up moderately today.

XJO was up today +0.53% after bouncing convincingly off the 200-Day MA.  Today it finished above the Conversion Line of the Ichimoku System.  It now faces resistance at the Ichimoku Base Line.  That's a tougher nut to crack.

Breadth was good with 10 out of 11 sectors positive.  The only negative sector was Materials (XMJ).  That's disappointing as Iron Ore Futures were up overnight.

Finspiration Australia. Chart Analysis for Australian and International Stock Markets + Bitcoin.

Chart Analysis on this Blog is purely descriptive.  It is written for informational and educational purposes and should not be taken as financial advice.  Do your own research or seek advice from a Registered Financial Advisor.

22/12/22.  Finspiration Thursday Morning Report.

Sleigh Bells heard Wall Street last night.

Overnight:  U.S. up, Europe up, Commodities up.  Bitcoin down.  

 

Dow Jones +1.6%.  SP500 +1.49%.  Nasdaq +1.54%%.  Small Caps +1.55%.  Banks +1.56%.

Breadth was good, strength was seen across the market.  All eleven U.S. Sectors were up.

SP500.

SP500 gapped up at the open and was strong for most of the day.  That suggests that the recent pull-back may be over.  Resistance overhead from both the Conversion Line and Base Line of the Ichimoku system may hold the advance.

Commodities.

Commodities Index gapped up open and finished  +1.29%.  Energy +2.3%.  Base Metals -0.61%.  Agriculture +1.11%.  Gold -0.17%.

Iron Ore Futures +2.7%.  That should help our big miners today.

In early morning trade in Australia is up >0.6%.

Bitcoin.

BTCUSD down -0.53% overnight.

BTCUSD remains below resistance of the Base Line of the Ichimoku system. That's a bearish sign.