Finspiration Australia. Chart Analysis for Australian and International Stock Markets.

 28/11/22.  Monday Evening Report.

ASX lost ground today.

XJO down -0.4%.

Above is a six-month Chart of XJO using Heiken-Ashi Candles.

Today's candle is a "spinner" which suggests a possible trend change.

Last Friday saw RSI above 70 which is overbought so we are probably see the start of a pull-back,

The 20-Day MA (centre line of the Bollinger Bands) is a likely target.

That coincides with the median line of the Andrew's Pitchfork.  That's another sign of where the XJO is probably headed.

I'll be absent from the office for the next three days, so my next report will probably be Saturday.

In the meantime - stay safe.

Finspiration Australia. Chart Analysis for Australian and International Stock Markets.

    27/11/22.  Sunday Report - The Week That Was.  Week Ended 25/11/22,

XJO Monthly Chart.

The down-trend in the Monthly Chart may have been reversed.

The Hull MA13 has turned up.  Remember that this was the first indicator to turn bearish back in October 2021.  If it can remain up at the end of the month, we will have had one significant change on the indicators.

This week, the chart has finished above the 8-Month Exponential Moving Average.  Another bullish sign.  

If these gains can hold until the end of the month, we are entering a new bullish trend.

It is almost the end of the month, so I think we can confidently say that the long-trend has changed from down to up.

The chart is still below the Supertrend (7/1.5).  That may act as resistance as it did for several months back in 2020.

Another bullish factor - Monthly RSI has moved back above 50.  The last two times that happened after a bear market we saw a sustained bull market.

XJO Weekly Chart.

                                            

XJO had another strong upside week after the previous week's consolidation.   XJO up +1.51%%/.

Hull MA13 and the Supertrend Line are bullish.  The index has formed a double bottom.  Using a standard measure rule, that suggests the XJO will make a new all time high.

The Index has closed above the 50-Week MA which is a bullish signal.

The down-trend line from May 2022 has also been broken to the upside.

Weekly RSI is at 60.3 - the highest it's been in the past year, and above the Monthly RSI.

XJO Daily Chart.

It is now time to tone down enthusiasm.  RSI is now at 70.62 - above the overbought level of 70.  So a pull-back may not be far away.  Of course,  RSI can go higher, but for a big Index like the XJO it is doubtful that we will see much higher levels before a pull-back.  Any pull-back is likely to be bought, especially as we come into December.

Not shown on this chart is horizontal resistance set up by a high back in May, 2022.  That increases the chance of a near-term pull-back

SP500 Weekly Chart

SP500 is lagging behind the XJO.  It remains below the major down-trend line from Jan. 2022 and below the 50-Week MA.  

Supertrend Line, 8-Week EMA and Hull MA13 have all turned up.  Those are bullish events.

Weekly RSI is at 52.29 - above 50; but since the beginning of the year it hasn't been able to climb above 55.  If Weekly RSI gets above 55, I think we can say the bear market in American stocks is over.  Wait and see.

ASX Sector Results for this week.

All eleven sectors were up this week.  The strongest was Utilities (XUJ).  It is a small sector and been unduly influenced by take-over activity.

Defensives tended to do well - Property (XPJ) up +2.64%, Industrials (XNJ) up +2.44%, Health (XHJ) up +1.78%.

Financials (XXJ) saw a return to form, up +2.05%.  

XMJ (Materials) was relatively weak, up +0.47%, as was Info.Tech (XIJ) up +0.14%

Relative Strength of Sectors.

RSI (Relative Strength Index) is calculated using the default setting of 14 days - almost three weeks of trading.  It provides a more reliable guide to changes in sectors than the one-week results which can jerk around quite a lot and, thus, RSI is probably a better guide to recent strength in the sectors. (Click here for a description of RSI.)

 Nine out of eleven sectors are above the 60 level - that represents a bullish result.  

XJO is just above the 70 level - expect a pull-back in the broad market.

NewHighs-NewLows Cumulative.

  

This is a lagging indicator but bullish signals are usually highly reliable.  

This is a metric for the long-term investor.  While NH-NL Cumulative remains below its 10-Day Moving Average, it is best for long term investors to remain cautious and defensive regarding the market.

The gap between the NH-NL Cum and the 10-Day MA is narrow and is tantalisingly close to turning bullish.

I've developed another metric StrongStocks-WeakStocks which is similar to NH-NL but gives signals a little earlier than NH-NL.

SS-WS is up for the third week in a row and has moved well above its 5-Week MA.  The 5WMA has turned up - that's a bullish sign.  This is only the second time this year it has given a bullish signal.  The first one didn't last for long (back in late March).  Hopefully, we will get a solid run-up this time as we are into a bullish seasonal period.

% of Stocks above key moving averages.

1.  % of stocks above 10-Day Moving Average: Last Week 70%, This Week 75%.  

2.  % of stocks above 50-Day Moving Average, Last Week 84%, This Week 86%.  

3.  % of stocks above 200-Day Moving Average, Last Week 46%, This Week 58%.  

This is the first week when Stocks above 200-DMA rose above the magical 50% level.  

Stocks above the 50-DMA remain overbought.  That suggests we may see a pull-back

% of stocks above the 200-Day MA rose again this week.  Steady improvement can be seen in the bar chart and the 5-Week MA is rising.   This suggests we'll see 80% before we get a major pull-back.

Conclusion.

 

ASX had another strong move to the upside this week.  XJO is now above the RSI70 - which is overbought.  That, and other indicators, suggest we could see a pull-back in the next week or so.  Any dip is likely to be bought given the strong basics of our market.

Stay Safe.

Finspiration Australia. Chart Analysis for Australian and International Stock Markets + Bitcoin.

 26/11/22.  Finspiration Saturday Report.

U.S. markets finish Thanksgiving Week on a mixed note.

Dow Jones +0.45%.  SP500 -0.03%.  Nasdaq -0.52%.  Small Caps +0.21%.  Banks +0.36%.

DJ has been leading the market.  RSI is now above 70 (overbought), be prepared for a pull-back.

SP500.

SP500 is stalling at the 200-Day MA.  A move above that line would be bullish but that seems unlikely.

CCI is showing a negative divergence, so the next move is likely to be down.

Commodities.

Commodities Index -0.88%.  Energy -1.44%.  Base Metals -0.47%.  Agriculture -0.05%.  Gold +0.09%.

There's not much in the Commodity figures for Australian resource stocks on Monday.

Bitcoin.

Bitcoin remains in its long-term down-trend although consolidating near its lows.  Until we see much more positive action - I'd avoid.

Finspiration Australia. Chart Analysis for Australian and International Stock Markets. + Bitcoin

 25/11/22.  Finspiration Friday Morning Report.

Overnight, U.S. markets were closed for Thanksgiving.  European markets were up:  European Stoxx600 up +0.46%.  German DAX +0.8%.  French CAC +0.4%.  London FTSE flat.

Yesterday in Australia, XJO up just +0.14%.  This morning after 30 minutes of trading it remains flat, up +0.1%.

Stochastic RSI (bottom panel) is up in the "stress" zone.  RSI is close to being overbought - be wary of a change in trend.

BHP is being threatened with strike action at its big Chile copper mine. Down -0.56% this morning.

In sectors, Energy (XEJ) is the biggest loser so far, down -0.95%.  Info.Tech (XIJ) is doing best, up +0.82%.  Financials (XXJ) up modestly +0.2%. 

Finspiration Australia. Chart Analysis for Australian and International Stock Markets + Bitcoin

24/11/22.   Finspiration Thursday Morning Report.

U.S. Markets move up overnight.

Dow Jones +0.28%.  SP500 +0.59%.  Nasdaq +0.99%.  Small Caps +0.12%.  Banks +0.32%.

SP500.

SP500 remains in a short-term up-trend.  It is coming up to resistance of the Kumo Cloud.

Stochastic RSI has lifted into the "stress" level (coloured blue).  I'll be looking for a turn down in the RSI to signal a pull-back.  So far, RSI at 55.29 is well below the overbought level of 70.  This could have further to run up.  Stay with the trend.

Commodities.

Commodities Index -1.38%.  Energy -2.64%.  Base Metals flat 0.00%.  Agriculture -0.4%.  Gold +0.62%.

Gold shows a bullish engulfing candle - it is a fairly reliable signal so we may see more upside in Gold.

After 90 minutes of trading this morning, ASX continues to build on recent gains.  XJO up +0.4%.

Bitcoin.

There's nothing to like in this Renko Chart of Bitcoin (USD).  It remains in a strong down-trend.  Avoid.

Finspiration Australia. Chart Analysis for Australian and International Stock Markets.

 23/11/22.  Finspiration Wednesday Evening Report

Australian ASX built on yesterday's strong result.

XJO up today +0.7%.

The Renko Chart shows the XJO in an up-trend and above the Kumo Cloud.  That's a positive.

The Chart is getting close to a major horizontal resistance level.

Stochastic RSI is in the "stressed" level where a turn-down can be expected.

This up-trend may end if RSI (first panel below the chart) turns down.  At 66.19  is close to the overbought level of 70 - so an end to this rally may be close.  Stay cautious.

Finspiration Australia. Chart Analysis for Australian and International Stock Markets.

 23/11/22.  Finspiration Wed. Morning Report.

Overnight in America.

Dow Jones has broken out to a new high, up +1.18%.  SP500 +1.36%.  Nasdaq +1.36%.  Small Caps +1.18%.  Banks +0.98%.

SP500.

SP500 is bullish on this Candlestick chart with the Index above the Kumo Cloud.  Conversion Line (blue) is above the Base Line Red.  SP500 had a new closing high but not a new intra-day high.

It remains below the 200-Day MA - which will remain a key resistance level.

Renko Chart remains bullish.  Stay with the trend.

Advance-Decline Line (Cumulative)

A-D Line is in an up-trend, confirming the bullish trend in the SP500.

Commodities.

Commodities Index +1.04%.  Energy +1.59%.  Base Metals +0.68%.  Agriculture +0.15%.  Gold +0.12%.

Iron Ore Futures -0.5%.  That's about the only blot on the overnight figures.

After 30 minutes of trading this morning, XJO is up +0.87% building on yesterday's positive move.

Bitcoin.

Bitcoin remains in a down-trend.  Avoid.

Finspiration Australia. Chart Analysis for Australian and International Stock Markets.

 22/11/22.  Finspiration Tuesday Evening Report.

This morning, ASX Futures were pointing to a negative start, but that's not how the day turned out.

XJO finished up+0.59% - probably a strong pointer to overseas markets tonight.

Today's finish was a fresh five months' high and above resistance at 7085 - that becomes a new support level.

Next resistance level is at 7227.  XJO finished today at 7181.  So the next resistance level is not far away.

Eight of eleven sectors were up today.  Energy (XEJ) was the best performer +2.6%, with coal miners Whitehaven a New Hope both up >7%.

The only negative sectors were defensives:  Utilities -0.1%,  Staples -0.3%, Industrials -0.3%.

The Renko chart above shows that the XJO is in an up-trend.  Stay with the trend.

Finspiration Australia. Chart Analysis for Australian and International Stock Markets.

 22/11/22.  Finspiration Report, Tuesday Morning.

Overnight in America, markets fall.

Dow Jones down just a little -0.13%.  SP500 -0.39%.  Nasdaq -1.09%.  Small Caps -0.33%.  Banks +0.33%.

Defensive Sectors such as Utilities, Real Estate and Consumer Staples performed better than the broad market.

SP500.

Today I'm using an arcane Japanese chart called a Renko Chart.  A new block is added to the chart only after a specified amount of change has occurred.  The Renko Chart continues to show an up-trend although SP500 was down last night - not enough to add a new negative block.

The Index is overbought on Money Flow Index and Stochastic so the next move is likely to be down.

Commodities.

Commodities Index -0.36%.  Energy +0.12%.  Base Metals -1.94%.  Agriculture +0.2%.  Gold -0.56%.

DBC and DBE both show plenty of intra-day buying.  Next move is likely to be to the upside.

Yesterday in Australia.

Yesterday in Australia, the XJO was down just a little -0.17%.  The trend on the Renko Chart remains up - stay with the trend until it changes.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin in USD is in a down-trend.  Avoid until we see evidence that the trend has changed.

Bitcoin was down -2.57% last night.

Finspiration Australia. Chart Analysis for the Australian and International Stock Markets.

   20/11/22.  Sunday Report - The Week That Was.  Week Ended 18/11/22,

XJO Monthly Chart.

The down-trend in the Monthly Chart may have been reversed.

The Hull MA13 has turned up.  Remember that this was the first indicator to turn bearish back in October 2021.  If it can remain up at the end of the month, we will have had one significant change on the indicators.

This week, the chart has finished above the 8-Month Exponential Moving Average.  Another bullish sign.  

If these gains can hold until the end of the month, we are entering a new bullish trend.

XJO Weekly Chart.

                                            

XJO had a week of consolidation after the previous week's strong upside move.   XJO down just -0.09%/.

Hull MA13 and the Supertrend Line are bullish.  The index has formed a double bottom

The Index has closed above the 50-Week MA which is a bullish signal.

The down-trend line from May 2022 has also been broken to the upside.

The Index has stalled at horizontal resistance so we may get more consolidation or a pull-back before another move to the upside.

XJO Daily Chart.

XJO has consolidated in a narrow range well above the 200-Day MA.  Upside movement has been constrained by horizontal resistance.  Plenty of downside support remains, significantly by the 200-Day MA. 

RSI is at 65.08.  That's down a little from the previous week.

If we get a move above horizontal resistance, that would be another buy signal.

SP500 Weekly Chart

SP500 is lagging behind the XJO.  It remains below the major down-trend line from Jan. 2022 and below the 50-Week MA.  

Supertrend Line, 8-Week EMA and Hull MA13 have all turned up.  Those are bullish events.

The medium-term trend is up - stay with the trend.

ASX Sector Results for this week.

XMJ (Materials) was responsible for keeping the XJO on an even keel this week.  XMJ up +3.72%.  Only three sectors were up:  XMJ, XIJ and XSJ.

The worst performer was XPJ (Property) -1.96%, followed by XEJ (Energy) -1.96%.   XXJ (Financials) continued its pull-back from recent highs.  XXJ down -0.77%.  XXJ remains above its 200 Day MA where it has been since 24 October.  A move back to the upside by XXJ would be bullish for the Sector and the wider ASX market.

Relative Strength of Sectors.

RSI (Relative Strength Index) is calculated using the default setting of 14 days - almost three weeks of trading.  It provides a more reliable guide to changes in sectors than the one-week results which can jerk around quite a lot and, thus, RSI is probably a better guide to recent strength in the sectors. (Click here for a description of RSI.)

 All eleven sectors are above the 50 level - that represents a bullish result.  

The strength in Utilities comes up clearly again in this graph.  That strength can be discounted to some extent.  XUJ is a small sector and take-over activity in that sector has skewed the result to the upside.

Apart from XUJ, no sector is above the overbought level of 70, so they still have room to move to the upside.

NewHighs-NewLows Cumulative.

  

This is a lagging indicator but bullish signals are usually highly reliable.  

This is a metric for the long-term investor.  While NH-NL Cumulative remains below its 10-Day Moving Average, it is best for long term investors to remain cautious and defensive regarding the market.

The gap between the NH-NL Cum and the 10-Day MA has narrowed and is tantalisingly close to turn bullish.

I've developed another metric StrongStocks-WeakStocks which is similar to NH-NL but gives signals a little earlier than NH-NL.

SS-WS is up for the second week in a row and has moved above its 5-Week MA.  The 5WMA has turned up - that's a bullish sign.  This is only the second time this year it has given a bullish signal.  The first one didn't last for long (back in late March).  Hopefully, we will get a solid run-up this time as we are into a bullish seasonal period.

% of Stocks above key moving averages.

1.  % of stocks above 10-Day Moving Average: Last Week 83%, This Week 70%.  

2.  % of stocks above 50-Day Moving Average, Last Week 83%, This Week 84%.  

3.  % of stocks above 200-Day Moving Average, Last Week 44%, This Week 46%.  

The overbought reading in No.1 has been worked off this week falling from 83% to 70%.  It could come back a little more before we see another upside move.

Stocks >200Day MA has remained above the crucial 40% level.  That suggests that any pull-back will be bought.

% of stocks above the 200-Day MA rose again this week.  Steady improvement can be seen in the bar chart and the 5-Week MA is rising.  

Conclusion.

 

The ASX has consolidated this week but still looks bullish.  The short-term over-bought quality of the XJO (depending on how you measure it) has been worked off to a small degree.  I'd still like to see a bit more downside.  That should be an opportunity to re-enter the market.

Stay Safe.

Finspiration Australia. Chart Analysis for Australian and International Stock Markets + Bitcoin.

19/11/22.  Finspiration Saturday Report.

Dow up, Tech flat.  Commodities mixed.  Bitcoin flat.

Overnight in America.

 Dow Jones +0.59%.  SP500 +0.48%.  Nasdaq +0.01%.  Small Caps +0.64%.  Banks +0.79%.

SP500.

SP500 remains within an upscoping Andrew's Pitchfork.  It has come back to the median line and horizontal support, then bounced - suggesting we will see more upside.

The 200-Day MA looms nearby which may cause some difficulty once the chart gets up to that level.

Commodities.

Commodities Index -0.71%.  Energy -1.47%.  Base Metals +0.31%.  Agriculture +0.05%.  Gold -0.69%.

Bitcoin.

Bitcoin was flat - virtually no movement.  It continues to consolidate at its lows.  Wait.

In Australia yesterday.

XJO was up modestly yesterday, +0.23%.  It is consolidating at the top of its range which is a positive.

It remains constrained from further upside by a major horizontal resistance level.  Plenty of solid support remains below.

PRT Bands are indicating a strong up-trend.  A break above horizontal resistance would give a further bullish signal.

Finspiration Australia. Chart Analysis for Australian and International Stock Markets + Bitcoin

 18/11/22.  Friday, Finspiration Morning Report.

Dow Jones flat, other major indices down modestly.  Commodities down.

Dow Jones -0.02%.  SP500 -0.31%.  Nasdaq -0.35%.  Small Caps -0.34%.  Banks -1.24%.

SP500.

SP500 had a big gap down at the open, but intra-day buying erased most of the losses.

It's possible that is the end of the small pull-back as SP500 is sitting on a horizontal support level.

Stochastic is still quite high so further downside is the most likely move.

Commodities.

Commodities Index -1.67%.  Energy -2.3%.  Base Metals -1.02%.  Agriculture -0.9%.  Gold -0.73%.

Iron Ore Futures +0.8%.

After 10 minutes of trading this morning, XJO is up modestly +0.2%.

Bitcoin.

Bitcoin continues to consolidate at its lows.  We need to see some decisive upside action.  Wait.